Assessing Emissions Outlook for a Major Utility

• Compared to other large European power producers, Utility-1 emits significantly higher greenhouse gas emissions per Kilowatt-hour of electricity produced.
• Utility-1 is scrutinized by the environmental activists because of its carbon intensive electricity generation, though its performance has improved in recent years.

Our Solution

• GlobalData worked with Utility-1 to construct details models forecasting emissions from each of their assets.
• Estimating emissions factors enables us to forecast company or asset-level CO2 emissions for electricity generation.
• These emissions factors ensure close approximation to calculate Utility-1’s emissions from their assets. We confirmed this with the appraisal that our model’s emission estimation is in line with the reported emissions from the company.
• Modelling of Utility-1’s power generation portfolio and emissions suggests that the 2025 target may be reached in 2022 due to the closure of significant coal capacity and increased renewables generation.

Outcome

• Based on estimated generation and emission factors, we have forecasted Utility-1’s emissions until 2025.
• Utility-1 is expected to decrease emissions from 2021 to 2025 by CAGR of -6.1%.
• By 2025, Utility-1 is expected to have made 78% of the reduction in emissions intensity required to meet its 2030 target. However, the majority of emissions will still be coming from coal plants, and phase-outs may need to be brought forward to achieve the target.