Danish casualty and life and property insurers are set to see a large spike in claims as the death rate rises and construction stops, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. The company has revised down its total market GWP forecasts post-COVID-19 down to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.6% between 2019 and 2023. This is down from 3.8% before the pandemic hit.

Deblina Mitra, Insurance Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Premiums will be hit initially by the closing down of construction and manufacturing. Business insurance will stop, while consumers are buying fewer cars, which is why the updated forecasts see total GWP decline by 0.9% in 2020, compared to a growth of 4.1% previously. The property and casualty lines are expected to see a rise in claims due to the adverse impact on the real estate, construction, energy and industrial sectors.”

Some small business insurers will be spared severe costs by government-backed schemes offering financial aid. Similarly, the public healthcare scheme should protect private health insurers from registering significant losses, and the presence of a country-wide lockdown is expected to reduce claims due to fewer home invasions and burglaries.

Mitra continued: “The COVID-19 outbreak is extensively covered under the public healthcare scheme. The presence of a single-payer public healthcare scheme covers the organized sector – which accounts for a large section of the workforce – and facilities such as telecommunications and online consulting in public health schemes, will translate to a marginal impact on private health insurers in Demark.”