Despite COVID-19, mobile service revenue in Australia to register 3.7% CAGR over 2019-2024, forecasts GlobalData

Despite a decline in 2020 due COVID-19 pandemic, the mobile services revenue in Australia will increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7% from US$9.7bn in 2019 to US$11.6bn by 2024, driven by steady rise in mobile Internet subscriptions, increase in mobile data consumption, and growth in mobile data average revenue per subscriber (ARPS), according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s Australia Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report forecasts that the novel COVID-19 outbreak will drive down the overall mobile services ARPS in 2020, primarily due to discounts on mobile services and waivers on bill payments. This in turn will cause the total mobile service revenues to fall by 0.1% year-on-year to reach an estimated value of US$8.4bn in 2020.

Deepa Dhingra, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, says: “Mobile data services will be the largest revenue contributing segment, which will grow at a CAGR of 5.7% over 2019-2024. On the contrary, revenues from mobile voice and mobile messaging services will decline at a CAGR of 0.2% and 37.9%, respectively, over 2019-2024.

“4G technology, which was at the forefront of mobile services market in Australia with 80.1% share of total subscriptions as of 2019, will remain the leading mobile technology over the 2019-2024 period. GlobalData expects 4G’s share to drop gradually to 71.8% by 2024 while 5G technology will see its share of total subscriptions grow from 0.4% in 2019 to 23.1% by 2024 with operators like Optus and Telstra expanding their 5G networks.”

Telstra led the mobile services market in Australia, by subscription share in 2019 and will remain the leading mobile operator throughout the forecast period. Telstra’s leading position is mainly due to its strong foothold in the postpaid segment, focus on M2M/IoT services, investment in 5G network expansions and mobile network modernization.

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