Leading data and analytics company GlobalData has downwardly revised its forecast for eastern Europe’s real GDP growth by 0.36 percentage points to 4.23% due to low vaccination rates. The company notes that, while Western Europe’s GDP forecast rose slightly by 0.01 percentage points to 4.03%, the continent’s economies will be affected if no action is taken to even out rates.

Shivangi Singh, Economic Research analyst at GlobalData, comments: “A close-knit continent like Europe with high levels of intra-continental mobility, cannot afford to have parts of its population unvaccinated. Europe needs to address the double challenge of expanding vaccination coverage in several Central and Eastern Europe countries, as well as facilitating the rollout of booster doses to address the issue of waning immunity against the fast spreading Omicron strain of Covid-19.”

GlobalData research confirms that there is a stark divide in vaccination rates across Europe. While Western European countries such as Portugal and Spain have achieved more than 80% vaccination rates as of November 2021, several Eastern European countries such as Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Russia, and Bulgaria still have rates below 60%.

Singh continues: “The problem in Eastern Europe isn’t vaccine shortages, it’s a mixture of deep-seated vaccine hesitancy, conspiracy theories and lack of trust in the authorities.”

For Western Europe, the waning effect of the first two vaccine doses, especially among the most vulnerable groups who were immunized more than six months ago, is already apparent. It is imperative for governments across Central and Eastern Europe to get more of their citizens vaccinated to prevent another catastrophic wave of infection, hospitalisation and deaths from hitting Europe this winter.

Singh adds: “With the onset of the winter season, and the spread of the newly identified Omicron variant, it is likely that countries with huge masses of unvaccinated population will be left with no choice but to impose strict lockdown restrictions and travel bans, which will be a major blow to the economic recovery of these nations.”

Some European countries such as Belgium, Denmark and the Netherlands witnessed the discovery of new cases related to the newly identified Omicron variant in late November 2021.

Singh adds: “Besides timely restrictions and preventive measures, vaccination is going to play the most vital role in preventing severe waves of Omicron infections across Europe in the early months of 2022.”