The endometriosis market is set to grow from $1.06 billion in 2020 to $2.91 billion in 2030 across the seven major markets (7MM*), at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.6%. The US, 5EU, and Japan will see much of this growth due to so many promising agents in late-stage clinical trial development, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

According to GlobalData’s report, ‘Endometriosis – Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2030’, the endometriosis market has remained largely stagnant for decades, until AbbVie’s market release of Orilissa (elagolix) in 2018. However, this drug did not disrupt sales as significantly as many believed it would.

The 5EU will grow the fastest out of the 7MM regions at a rate of 12.5%, compared to 10.5% in the US and 5% in Japan. Japan’s market is expected to grow at a slower rate due to two factors: firstly, the lower prevalence of endometriosis within Japan as compared to the 5EU and the US, and secondly, that Quinagolide, one of three impactful endometriosis pipeline products, will not reach Japan during the forecast period.

Sarah Bundra, Pharmaceutical Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Growth in the 5EU can be attributed to GnRH antagonists arriving to the European markets for the first time, which, in an interview with GlobalData, key opinion leaders (KOLs) noted that they are eagerly awaiting the launch of these drugs to treat endometriosis-associated pain.”

GnRH antagonists boast improved safety and efficacy profiles compared to existing marketed endometriosis therapies. Further, their method of administration—oral tablets—is another unique trait of GnRH antagonists, which contrast intravenous therapeutics that not only have lower compliance rates, but also do not allow for titration of medication. With a tablet taken once or twice daily, a patient can cease treatment immediately, if desired, whereas with an IV drug, the patient must endure any negative side throughout the duration of the month.

Bundra concludes: “US sales will be slightly tempered by Orilissa’s patent expiry, set for 2024 but will extend to 2029 if the patent term extension (PTE) is approved. The generic poised to replace the branded Orilissa (elagolix) will be cheaper, creating what is known as generic erosion. This will decrease sales as patients turn to the cheaper alternative, elagolix generic.”

*7MM: The US, 5EU (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK), and Japan