The bladder cancer market is expected to significantly grow from $733m in 2018 to $4.0bn by 2028 across the seven major markets (7MM*) at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5%, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

The company’s latest report, ‘Bladder cancer: Opportunity Analysis and Forecast to 2028’, states that the main driver of growth will be the approval and launch of pipeline therapies in multiple treatment lines and in different sub-populations within bladder cancer.

Barath Muralidharan, MBS, Oncology Analyst at GlobalData, says: “The exponential growth of the bladder cancer market will be driven by an increasing incident patient population and the approval and launch of new branded therapies with different MOAs: Balversa, Padcev, Vofatamab, Vicinium, Qapzola, N-803 and Instilidrin. In addition, the label expansion of currently marketed therapies: PD-1/PD-L1 checkpoint inhibitors in combination with chemotherapies or other immuno-oncology agents will promote market growth during the forecast period.

PD-1/PD-L1 checkpoint inhibitors are highly anticipated in bladder cancer and they are expected to have greater adoption and usage in different lines of therapy across the 7MM, especially in the areas where unmet need is the highest.  

Muralidharan continues: “A major barrier for market growth in bladder cancer will be identifying the patient population with specific mutations for targeted therapy regimens, which is not feasible for all patients as costs for identification would be expensive for the payers, and will limit the usage of these drugs. In the EU and Japan, the usage of checkpoint inhibitors other than Keytruda and Tecentriq is currently difficult due to reimbursement restrictions. Competition from other drugs and reimbursement restriction will tamper the growth of the market significantly.  

“Among the pipeline candidates, PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors as monotherapy or as a combination regimen are expected to result in significant revenues due to premium pricing and clinical benefit in BCG-relapsed and refractory patients, as well as in platinum based chemotherapy ineligible patients.”

GlobalData’s report also found that the label expansion of PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors and the launch of novel drugs such as Vicinium, N-803, Instiladrin for non-muscle invasive bladder cancer population are major drivers of the US market.  

Muralidharan adds: “The ssage of PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors in bladder cancer is expanding, translating to the major contributor of increased revenue in the 7MM over the forecast period. Key opinion leaders (KOLs) across the 7MM are very enthusiastic about Padcev and GlobalData projects sales revenues for this drug to increase at a CAGR of 18.8% from the time of launch in 2020 over the forecast period. In addition, evaluating targeted therapy regimens in combination with immune checkpoint inhibitors will aid in better product adoption across all type of bladder cancer patients.”

*7MM = US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan