Global RSV market to skyrocket to $6.3bn by 2030 driven by launch of new first-in-class products, says GlobalData

The respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) prophylaxis market is expected to skyrocket from $454.8m in 2020 to $6.3bn by 2030 across the eight major markets (8MM*), at an impressive compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.1%, according to GlobalData. The leading data and analytics company notes that the main driver of growth will be the launch of multiple first-in-class products.

GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Prophylaxis – Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2030’, reveals that the main driver of growth will be the launch of multiple first-in-class products to prevent medically significant RSV infections, including improved single-dose monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), along with maternal, adult, and pediatric RSV vaccines.

Nancy Jaser, PharmD/MBA, Infectious Diseases Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Synagis has dominated the market since its approval in 1998, as the only licensed product in the 8MM for prevention of RSV infections in young children. Synagis is marketed by Sobi in the US while AstraZeneca now holds all ex-US sales rights. Prior to June of 2021, AbbVie marketed Synagis outside of the US.

“Although Synagis has proven efficacy at reducing hospitalization due to RSV, it has a relatively short half-life and requires five monthly doses during the RSV season, which is a major barrier to full patient compliance. Furthermore, Synagis’ high price and restrictive label in the 8MM have largely limited its clinical applications to only the most high-risk premature infants. Sales of Synagis are expected to drop substantially after the launch of AstraZeneca/Sanofi’s Phase III mAb, nirsevimab, in 2023. Nirsevimab is projected to reach $3bn in annual revenue by 2030.”

GlobalData’s report also identifies a high level of unmet need for RSV infections in adults 60 years of age or older, which remains an untapped market associated with over 160,000 hospitalizations in the US in 2020. There are currently four vaccines in Phase II or Phase III clinical development in older adults, including GlaxoSmithKline’s subunit vaccine GSK3844766A and Johnson & Johnson’s viral vector vaccine Ad26.RSV.preF, which both target the RSV F protein in its prefusion conformation.

Jaser concludes: “It is likely that several first-in-class prophylactic products for RSV will coexist simultaneously by 2030, including both vaccines and mAbs for the prevention of severe RSV infections. However, the global impact of new products in reducing overall RSV burden will depend on the cost-effectiveness of these drugs, as well as how vaccines are eventually integrated into national immunization policies throughout the 8MM.”

*8MM = US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and Australia

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