GlobalData specializes in conducting studies that empower state and federal governments, healthcare organizations, and trade and professional associations to anticipate future workforce needs. These analyses assess the availability of skilled professionals relative to the projected demand for healthcare services, influenced by factors such as changing demographics and evolving care models. For healthcare industry leaders, workforce analysis is a critical tool for guiding strategic resource allocation and investment decisions. By leveraging insights into current and projected workforce trends, organizations can proactively address talent shortages, align training and education programs with future needs, and expand services in areas of growing demand. This data-driven approach empowers decision-makers to focus efforts where they are most likely to yield meaningful returns—whether through targeted workforce development, service line growth, or informed policy engagement. Moreover, publicly available reports and advocacy materials are valuable resources for healthcare leaders working to advance strategic workforce initiatives. These insights support long-term sustainability planning by helping organizations anticipate future challenges and maintain a resilient, adaptable workforce. Continued investment in education, training, and workforce development is essential—not only to meet growing patient care demands but also to enhance the overall efficiency, responsiveness, and stability of the healthcare system. GlobalData supports these efforts by producing high-quality, evidence-based analyses and tools that inform policy discussions, guide strategic planning, and strengthen workforce advocacy at the local, state, and national levels. For more information, contact HealthWorkforce@globaldata.com.
Health Workforce Microsimulation Model Documentation
Health Workforce Microsimulation Model Documentation The Health Workforce Simulation Model (HWSM) is an integrated microsimulation model that estimates the current and future supply of and demand for health care workers by occupation, geographic location, and year. Technical documentation for the modeling done for the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis is included here. This report documents the methods, data, and assumptions for projecting workforce supply and demand, as well as data and model limitations. Each year, this report is updated to reflect new data sources and refinements to federal modeling. The same microsimulation modeling methods are used in studies done for states, health systems and national associations although assumptions and data sources vary by project and are described in each specific project report.
National Workforce Studies
U.S. Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA): National Health Workforce Projections
The National Center for Health Workforce Analysis at HRSA plays a central role in developing projections to inform federal health workforce policy. Since 2012, HRSA has partnered with GlobalData (and its predecessor firm) to produce supply and demand forecasts for healthcare professionals at the national, state, and sub-state levels—including distinctions between metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas. At the core of this work is the Health Workforce Simulation Model (HWSM), a sophisticated microsimulation framework developed and maintained by GlobalData’s healthcare workforce team and HRSA’s National Center for Health Workforce Analysis (NCHWA). This data-driven tool models future supply and demand across approximately 40 health occupations—including physicians, advanced practice providers, nurses, behavioral health professionals, oral health providers, allied health personnel, and long-term services and supports workers—as well as 36 medical specialties, encompassing primary care, medical, surgical, and other clinical disciplines. HWSM integrates demographic trends, workforce participation rates, and healthcare utilization and delivery patterns to assess both current and future workforce adequacy. It enables policymakers, educators, and healthcare leaders to make evidence-based decisions on workforce training, recruitment, and policy—ensuring a sustainable and responsive healthcare workforce that meets the evolving needs of the U.S. population.
The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections from 2021 to 2036
This study, conducted for the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), models physician supply and demand through 2036 across a range of scenarios that reflect key uncertainties—such as shifts in population health needs, evolving care delivery models, physician retirement trends, and changes in provider productivity. Building on prior AAMC workforce reports, the analysis provides robust, evidence-based projections that inform policies and strategic planning efforts to address both current and emerging physician shortages. The findings underscore the critical need for sustained federal and state investment in medical education and graduate medical education (GME) to ensure an adequate pipeline of trained physicians capable of meeting the healthcare demands of a growing and aging population.
Current and Projected Future Supply and Demand for Physical Therapists From 2022 to 2037: A New Approach Using Microsimulation
This study, conducted for the American Physical Therapy Association (APTA) in collaboration with the Center for Health Workforce Studies at the University at Albany, examines national and state physical therapist workforce trends through 2037. Utilizing a novel microsimulation approach, the analysis incorporates data from an online survey of practicing physical therapists to better understand the current alignment between supply and demand, practice capacity, and physical therapist retirement expectations. The findings indicate a current national shortfall of approximately 12,070 full-time equivalent (FTE) physical therapists—representing a 5.2% workforce gap. Without targeted interventions, this shortfall is projected to persist well into the future, posing ongoing challenges for access to physical therapy services across the U.S.
State Workforce Studies
Hawai‘i Nurse Workforce Projections 2022 – 2037
The Hawai‘i State Center for Nursing provided comprehensive licensing and survey data on the state's nursing workforce. Demand modeling was validated using discharge data from the state data alliance. The study provided projections of RNs, LPNs and APRNs by county across the state. The findings highlighted stable and steady growth of RNs but an undersupply of LPNs underscoring a need to grow LPN supply and utilization. Adequacy for APRNs varies by profession and certification with large anticipated growth in NPs and more stability in CNMs and CRNAs. Focus group interviews were conducted to provide a qualitative perspective on the challenges and potential recommendations for Hawai‘i's nursing workforce, complementing the quantitative data from the modeling. These interviews reveal challenges in recruitment, retention, shortages in specialty areas particularly in rural and neighbor islands, highlighting the need for policy interventions and workforce strategies.
Arkansas Health Workforce Projections 2021 – 2035
This study for the Arkansas Hospital Association provided comprehensive projections for key healthcare professions, including registered nurses (RNs), licensed practical nurses (LPNs), respiratory therapists, emergency medical technicians (EMTs), licensed clinical social workers, phlebotomists, and clinical laboratory technicians. The study incorporated state-specific licensing data, demographic trends, and healthcare utilization patterns to forecast workforce supply and demand through 2035. The findings highlighted significant projected shortages in several critical roles, notably among RNs and LPNs, underscoring the urgency for targeted workforce development initiatives. These insights have been instrumental for AHA and state policymakers in informing strategic decisions related to educational program expansion, recruitment efforts, and policy interventions aimed at mitigating workforce gaps and ensuring adequate healthcare access across Arkansas.
Tennessee Health Workforce Projections: 2021-2035
The Tennessee Hospital Association (THA) engaged GlobalData to conduct a comprehensive workforce analysis across key healthcare occupations in the state. The study focused on a wide range of critical roles—including nurse practitioners, physician assistants, registered nurses, licensed practical nurses, respiratory therapists, medical laboratory technicians and technologists, emergency medical technicians, social workers, cardiac catheterization lab staff, surgical technologists, and phlebotomists—and projected supply and demand through 2035. The analysis integrated state-specific licensing and employment data, demographic trends, socioeconomic indicators, and healthcare utilization patterns to forecast workforce needs across care delivery settings at both the county and regional levels. This localized, data-driven approach provided a detailed assessment of current and future workforce adequacy, identifying areas where shortages could affect access to care and service delivery. THA has actively leveraged the study’s findings to support a range of strategic priorities, including advocacy for expanded investment in healthcare education and training pipelines, the development of recruitment and retention strategies, and the exploration of innovative staffing models to enhance operational efficiency and workforce satisfaction. The insights have also informed THA’s collaboration with state and regional stakeholders to strengthen healthcare infrastructure and ensure that Tennessee’s healthcare system remains responsive and resilient in the face of evolving workforce demands.
Florida Physician Workforce and Nursing Workforce Studies:
GlobalData’s health workforce modeling team (formerly IHS Markit) conducted statewide physician and nursing workforce studies for the Florida Hospital Association and the Safety Net Hospital Alliance of Florida, projecting supply and demand through 2035. The analyses integrated state-specific licensing data, demographics, and healthcare utilization trends. The physician workforce study projected a 27% increase in demand—from 58,918 FTEs in 2019 to 74,784 by 2035—while supply was expected to grow by just 3%, resulting in a projected shortfall of nearly 17,924 physicians, with the greatest gaps in specialties serving older populations. These findings have informed policy efforts to expand graduate medical education (GME) and explore alternative care delivery models. The nursing workforce study forecasted a shortfall of 59,100 nurses by 2035, including a 12% deficit in RNs and a 30% deficit in LPNs. The report emphasized the need for expanded nursing education capacity and retention strategies. It also supported initiatives to increase APRN utilization to help meet rising demand. Together, these studies have equipped Florida’s healthcare leaders with evidence to guide workforce planning, inform investment strategies, and shape policies to ensure the state’s healthcare system remains responsive to future needs.
Maryland Nursing Workforce Projections: 2021-2035
The Maryland Hospital Association (MHA) engaged GlobalData to develop comprehensive nursing workforce projections through 2035. GlobalData incorporated state nursing licensure and employment data, demographic trends, and healthcare utilization patterns to forecast supply and demand across care settings and geographic regions. The findings identified potential shortfalls in key occupations, particularly among RNs and LPNs, and highlighted the need for expanded education pipelines and strategic workforce planning. MHA has used the results to inform workforce development strategies, advocate for investments in nursing education, and collaborate with stakeholders to address projected gaps in provider availability and ensure the long-term resilience of Maryland’s healthcare system.
Health System Workforce Studies
Health workforce supply and demand projections provide essential insights that enable health systems to make informed, forward-looking decisions around staffing, service delivery, and organizational growth. By identifying anticipated shortages or surpluses across key healthcare professions, systems can proactively refine recruitment strategies, expand training pipelines, and invest in targeted workforce development efforts. These projections also inform planning for new clinical sites and service lines by highlighting geographic areas and specialties where demand is expected to rise. In addition to enhancing operational efficiency and resource alignment with evolving patient needs, workforce modeling helps strengthen system resilience in the face of demographic shifts, policy changes, and evolving care delivery models. GlobalData has partnered with health systems to support a range of strategic initiatives—including workforce planning and capacity management, market and competitive analysis, service line development, and the formation of strategic partnerships.
