GlobalData Plc
  • HER2-negative breast cancer market will almost double to $10.6 billion by 2025

The human epidermal growth factor receptor type 2-negative (HER2-) breast cancer market is set to rise from $5.4 billion in 2015 to $10.58 billion by 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate of 6.9%, according to research and consulting firm GlobalData.

The company’s latest report states that this rapid growth, which is set to occur across the eight major markets of the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan, and China, will be driven by a number of factors including the increasing incorporation of premium-priced cyclin dependent kinase 4/6 (CDK4/6) inhibitors into the HER2-breast cancer treatment algorithm, new targeted therapies and immunotherapies, the launch of new agents in early disease settings, and increased disease prevalence.

Maxime Bourgognon, Ph.D., Pharm.D., GlobalData’s Analyst covering Oncology and Hematology, explains: “In 2015, the HER2- breast cancer market was dominated by the use of generic endocrine therapy and chemotherapy in both the early disease and metastatic settings.

“Companies have adopted a common strategy in HER2- breast cancer of utilizing existing standard-of-care treatments and establishing combinations with new, premium-priced targeted agents in an attempt to strengthen their position in the market. In the triple negative breast cancer segment (TNBC), combinations are likely to improve the uptake of new premium-priced agents. However, in HER2-/ hormone receptor-positive (HR+) patients, combinations will offer a dual advantage by driving both uptake and longer duration of treatment.”

The sales of several new market entrants in the HR+ setting, including CDK4/6, phosphoinositide 3 kinase (PI3K), and histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitors will be driven by combinations with generic agents. Within the CDK4/6 inhibitors in particular, several “me-too” agents are expected to launch, and uptake will be determined by their combination strategy. Recent data showing an advantage of using Faslodex over non-steroidal aromatase inhibitors (NSAIs), particularly in patients with non-visceral disease, will provide added clinical differentiation between drugs in this class.

Bourgognon concludes: “In the TNBC segment, GlobalData anticipates that combinatory approaches will play a key role in the adoption of new pipeline agents. For example, the synergistic combination of the programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) modulator Tecentriq with the taxane-based agent, Abraxane, is expected to generate sales of $498 million by 2025, while sales will reach only $123 million for the use of Merck’s Keytruda (pembrolizumab) monotherapy in the same year.”

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