Adcetris is the market-leading drug in the world’s 7MM* (US, 5EU and Japan) and the main contributor to the market growth in Hodgkin’s lymphoma (HL) over the recent years. The initial patent expiry in the US in 2024 is expected to lead to stagnation in this currently growing market. However, this could be compensated by a new competitive landscape which will provide an opportunity for new companies looking to enter the HL market, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

Miguel Ferreira, MSc, Oncology and Hematology Analyst at GlobalData, says: “GlobalData is projecting a moderate compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.4% between 2019 and 2024 but a CAGR of only 2.7% between 2024 and 2029. This is a direct result of Adcetris’ patent expiry in the US in 2024, followed by its patent expiry in Japan in 2026 and the 5EU in 2027.”

Adcetris is an established go-to treatment in the HL market, given that it is the only approved drug targeting a key disease-related biomarker CD30. The late projected arrival of pipeline agents with novel mechanisms of action to target CD30 will find it hard to compete with Adcetris as monotherapies and will require an alternative strategy to become established in the HL market.

The anticipated label expansions for Opdivo through its combinations with Adcetris and AVD, the continued uptake of Keytruda and introduction of novel pipeline agents will offset the receding sales of Adcetris. As Adcetris biosimilars peak across all the 7MM, these may be insufficient to sustain market growth. However, this will coincide with the arrival of a new competitive landscape which may eventually facilitate the market growth.

Ferreira concludes: “As Adcetris falls, Opdivo will become the new market leader, leaving Keytruda temporarily behind as Merck looks for combination approaches to rival Opdivo. Given that Keytruda is becoming the preferred monotherapy in the HL market, a future Keytruda combination may become the standard of therapy in HL.

“Affimed’s anti-CD30 bispecific antibody, AFM-13, is one of the likely combination partners for Keytruda. This new competitive landscape in HL would promote market growth, which would no longer rely on Adcetris sales alone. Lastly, emerging pipeline agents may look to enter the market via combination approvals and further contribute to this competitive landscape, gradually rendering monotherapeutic approaches less attractive.”

7MM*: Seven Major Markets (The US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and Japan)