Immune checkpoint inhibitors will represent 47% of the 5EU gastric and gastroesophageal market by 2029

The lack of approved immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) in the gastric and gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma (G/GEJAC) market in the *5EU is expected to significantly enhance the revenue of Opdivo and Keytruda following their upcoming label expansions.

In fact, GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Gastric and Gastroesophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2029’, notes that these expansions will also primarily drive growth across the wider 8MM* G/GEJAC market, however, the impact will be more apparent in the 5EU – given the lack of approved ICIs.

Miguel Ferreira, MSc, Oncology and Hematology Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “GlobalData expects that Keytruda will enter the 5EU markets first as a monotherapy, amassing $23m by its third year in the market. It will lose out to Opdivo’s $24m in its second year in the market – given Opdivo’s more in-demand approval for the adjuvant setting.”

Key opinion leaders (KOLs) interviewed by GlobalData stated that ICIs are of little interest to physicians as monotherapies or third-line options. Therefore, only combinatorial label expansions are expected to significantly impact the value of the market. Hence, Keytruda’s earlier entry won’t offer the usual first-to-market advantage.

Ferreira concludes: “Despite entering the 5EU market first in 2021, Keytruda will generate similar revenue to that of Tislelizumab in 2029, $138m verses $111m, respectively – despite the latter only being forecast to enter the market in 2024 Meanwhile, Opdivo will be the distinguished market leader with $303m.”

*8MM = The US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan and China
* 5EU = France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK

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