Following the news that Poland is revising its defense spending plan (Defense of the Fatherland Act) for 2023 onwards to achieve a staggering spend of 3% of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defense;

Madeline Wild, Associate Defense Analyst at GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, shares her view:

“GlobalData forecasts Poland to have an annual defense budget of $22.2 billion in 2023, equating to a 47% increase on 2022’s budget of $15.1 billion. The move echoes both the growth in Denmark’s defense budget and Germany’s unprecedented increase.

“Unlike its neighbors, and relative to national wealth, Poland’s revision will make the country one of the largest funders of defense within NATO (in terms of percentage of GDP spent on defense)—far surpassing the 2% target set by the organization.

“However, the increase in spending risks being limited by EU caps on budget deficits. Nine EU states have asked for a waiver on this rule and are currently awaiting a response. The mere number requesting the waiver suggests further dramatic defense budget increases are being planned across Europe.

“During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Polish government financed its response through bonds issued by the national development bank (BGK) and the state fund PFR, which are not included in the budget. The Polish Ministry of National Defence (MoD) has suggested that these channels could be used again, but now to fund a response to a different crisis.

“The change to the ‘Defense of the Fatherland Act’ is a direct response to the invasion of Ukraine. It is one of a growing number of examples of European states adjusting their budgets in the face of the Russian threat. Some of Poland’s new defense funds have already been designated for troop size increases, with a five-year plan to more than double active troop size from 143,500 to 300,000. This is indicative of a nation preparing to defend its territorial integrity as its neighbor battles to maintain theirs.

“There have been ongoing discussions surrounding the potential transfer of Polish MiG-29 aircraft to Ukraine. This currently seems unlikely unless the US triangulates the deal by transferring F-16s to Poland as replacements for the MiG-29s. For Poland, this would protect the Air Force from any vulnerabilities resulting from a decreased fleet size but would increase anxieties around becoming the next focus for Russian aggression. The transfer is complicated; it would cause big delays to the delivery of jets to Taiwan, the original intended recipient. The sale of the aircraft to Taiwan is part of a strategic relationship being formed against Chinese posturing in the region, thus the US still perceives their timely delivery to be of high importance.”