Analysis by GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, shows the West European light vehicle market fell by an estimated 28.8% year-on-year in October.

“The European vehicle market continues to be severely constricted by inventory woes stemming from the global chips shortage,” says Calum MacRae, Automotive Analyst at GlobalData.

The projected result marks the fourth consecutive monthly fall for the region. The annualised selling rate (SAAR) for October preliminary data came in at just 11.2 million, the lowest October result since GlobalData’s records began in 2007.

GlobalData forecasts the West European light vehicle market will reach 12.4 million units in 2021, some 0.3% down on the COVID-19 ravaged 2020 market.

MacRae maintains that the COVID-19 pandemic still presents significant downside risk to the market outlook and points out that infection rates are once again on the rise in most West European markets. “It could be that more lockdowns are on the way in some markets if infections and hospitalizations start to spiral,” he warns.

“Coupled with the worsening macroeconomic outlook due to soaring energy prices and inflationary pressures, the region might struggle to reach our current 13.6 million light vehicle sales forecast for 2022,” MacRae says.

A 13.6 million West European light vehicle market next year would amount to a 9.7% increase on 2021’s forecast result.