While the size of the UK food & grocery market is set to grow 15.0% between 2019 and 2024 to £174.5bn, the Big Four grocers (Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Morrisons and ASDA) are set to lose out on a further 1.1% of the total market (£1.9bn) by 2024, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

The company’s latest report, ‘UK: Food & Grocery 2019-2024’, reveals that, while grocery sales through the Big Four are forecast to grow 12.6%, the discounters and online pureplays will gain share as they outperform (growing 25.0% and 55.1% respectively over the period) as the discounters continue their expansion plans and consumers continue to adapt to shopping for food online.

Thomas Brereton, Retail Analyst at GlobalData, commented: “The recent set of supermarket Christmas trading results shows that UK shoppers still have an unsatisfied appetite for the proposition of the discounters; Lidl performed especially admirably, growing year-on-year sales 11% in December. While there is evidence of a slowdown in l-f-l sales growth at Aldi and Lidl, both retailers still have substantial expansion plans for the UK – particularly within the M25 – over the next few years.

“The rise of these value operators has significantly impacted the market share of the Big Four, declining from 57.9% in 2010 to 51.0% in 2020 and expected to reduce a further percentage point by 2024. To help prevent further decline, the major supermarkets must not only remain competitive on average basket spend, but need to also target growing shopper concerns on product sustainability and retailer ethics.”