The Indonesia’s mobile services market will see its overall revenue grow at a relatively slower compound average growth rate (CAGR) of 1% from US$10.1bn in 2020 to US$10.5bn in 2025 as continued decline in mobile voice revenues will offset the steady progress made in the mobile data service segment, finds GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

An analysis of GlobalData’s Indonesia Mobile Broadband Forecast Model reveals that mobile voice service revenues will decline by about 6% over the forecast period due to the falling voice average revenue per user (ARPU) levels, as users increasingly switch over to over-the-top (OTT)-based communication platforms like WhatsApp and Google Duo.

The mobile data service revenues are set to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4% over 2020-2025. This growth will be driven by continued rise in smartphone penetration, robust growth in high-ARPU yielding 4G subscriptions, and rising consumption of mobile data services over the forecast period.

Antariksh Raut, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, says: “Smartphone subscriptions in Indonesia are poised to reach 336.4 million in 2025, driven by the expansion of 4G services in the country, along with bundled plans and promotional discounts offered by operators on smartphones purchases.”

GlobalData predicts smartphone data usage in the country to grow from 7GB per month in 2020 to 17GB per month in 2025, which will drive the overall mobile data service revenues over the forecast period.

Growth in 4G subscriptions, on the other hand, be driven by operators’ LTE network service expansions in underserved areas as a part of the government’s plan to provide 4G network access to all remote villages and sub-districts in the country in 2022.

Mr Raut concludes: “State-owned Telkomsel will remain the leading mobile operator through the forecast period. Telkomsel’s leadership in the mobile services market will be supported by strong focus on 4G network expansions to underserved areas and early lead in 5G trials.”