Mobile service revenue in Japan is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.2% from US$72.4bn in 2020 to US$98.0bn in 2025, supported by growth in mobile data service revenues, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s Japan’s Mobile Broadband Forecast Model reveals that the revenues from both mobile messaging and mobile voice services will continue to fall over the forecast period. Mobile data service revenue, on the other hand, will grow at a robust CAGR of 9.0% between 2020 and 2025, driven by projected rise in higher ARPU 5G services and growing M2M/IoT subscriptions.

Aasif Iqbal, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, says: “4G will remain the leading mobile technology in Japan through the forecast period, despite a drop in its share of total subscriptions from 76.3% in 2020 to 53.9% in 2025. This decline in 4G subscriptions is primarily due to the anticipated rise in subscribers’ migration towards 5G services over the coming years.”

5G services will gain traction in Japan as operators like NTT and KDDI continue to expand their 5G networks across the country. KDDI, for instance, has installed around 10,000 5G base stations until March 2021 with plans to install 50,000 base stations by March 2022.

Mr Iqbal concludes: “The average monthly data usage will increase from 7.5GB in 2020 to about 12.5GB in 2025, accelerated by the increase in the consumption of mobile video and social media on mobile network, on the back of data centric plans promoted by MNOs.

“NTT led the mobile market in terms of subscription share in 2020 and will remain the leading mobile operator through 2025. NTT’s market leadership will be primarily supported by its healthy position in the post-paid segment, and strong focus on 5G network expansion. For instance, the telco is expected to deploy 10,000 5G sites by June 2021 and about 20,000 5G sites by March 2022. Additionally, NTT has collaborated with the Chinese government to develop 6G infrastructure in the country, which is expected to be launched commercially in 2030.”