Mobile service revenues in Malaysia to stagnate over next five years, forecasts GlobalData

Malaysia’s mobile service revenue is expected to grow at a negligible compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.7% from US$5bn in 2020 to US$5.2bn in 2025 given the steady decline in mobile voice and mobile messaging service revenues, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

An analysis of GlobalData’s Malaysia Mobile Broadband Forecast Model reveals that mobile voice and mobile messaging service revenues will continue to decline over the forecast period because of widespread consumer shift towards over-the-top (OTT)-based communication platforms.

Mobile voice service revenue will register a decline of 3.2% CAGR during the forecast period, due to declining voice subscriptions as well as voice service average revenue per user (ARPU) levels.

Mobile data service revenue, on the other hand, will increase at a CAGR of 2.9%, driven by the steady rise in the adoption of higher ARPU 4G services and growing mobile data service consumption.

The average monthly data usage will increase from 12.5GB in 2020 to 16GB in 2025, driven by the growing consumption of mobile video services over smartphones, on the back of data-centric plans offered by MNOs.

Hrushikesh Mahananda, Associate Project Manager at GlobalData, says: “4G will remain the leading mobile technology by subscriptions in Malaysia through the forecast period 2020-2025, driven by continued 4G network expansion by operators, supported by the government’s Jalinan Digital Negara Plan (JENDELA) plan initiative to improve 4G network coverage.”

With all the major mobile service providers preparing for the 5G network, GlobalData expects 5G to be commercially launched in 2021. The Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission has established a new special purpose vehicle, Digital Nasional Berhad (DNB) for the deployment of 5G network nationwide.

Mr Mahananda concludes: “Maxis led the mobile services market in terms of subscription share in 2020 and will remain the leading mobile operator through 2025. Maxis’ market leadership will be primarily driven by its strong focus on the postpaid segment by offering promotional plans and investments in 4G network expansion, particularly in rural areas.”

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