The burden of diagnosed myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) is expected to increase at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 2.40% from around 90,000 cases in 2018 to 112,000 cases in 2028 in the eight major markets (8MM*), according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Myelodysplastic Syndrome: Epidemiology Forecast to 2028’, reveals that the increase is partly attributed to the moderately rising trend in incidence in the 8MM, combined with underlying demographic changes in the respective markets.

In the 8MM, MDS diagnosed incident cases and five-year diagnosed prevalent cases will continue to rise in the next ten years with an AGR of 2.4%.

Bishal Bhandari, Epidemiologist at GlobalData, comments: “The forecast growth in the next ten years in the diagnosed incident and five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of MDS will be the result of an increase in the elderly population worldwide, increase in disease incidence, increased survival, and increased use of aggressive cancer therapies.

“MDS has often been underdiagnosed or misdiagnosed in cancer registry. But with improvement in diagnostic and with reclassification of MDS, cases could rise quickly. The number of cases forecasted by GlobalData epidemiologist was thus adjusted higher to account for the underreporting of cases in other population based registries.”

Most of the MDS cases are in low risk group, however, 23% of MDS are in the high risk or very high risk group. MDS-EB was the most common mutation for MDS in 8MM with 35.12% of the total cases. These high risk types of MDS need intensive management to prevent risk of transforming to acute myeloid leukemia (AML). 

Bhandari concludes: “It is of concern that MDS cases and especially the high risk type of MDS would continue to rise in the next 10 years. Development of well targeted therapy is necessary to improve the survival of the patient and to keep the cases of MDS under control.”

*8MM: The US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan and Canada