A survey by GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, found that an overwhelming majority of respondents agreed that Russia’s investment in, or deployment of, next-generation military platforms has led to greater levels of defense expenditure in the West, with 41% of the 249 respondents agreeing outright that it was quite clearly the main driver. A further 30% also responded yes, although caveated by it being to a limited degree. With only 16% of respondents disagreeing with the premise entirely, the remaining 13% of respondents viewed a shift from the ‘war on a terror’ as a driver.

Victoria Bosomworth, Aerospace and Defense Associate Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Russia’s large investments into platform development and R&D has paved the way for multiple next-generation projects in a number of fields, such as the T-14 Armata Main Battle Tank, PAK DA bomber, 3M22 Zircon and Sotnik Battle Armour. The highly sophisticated Armata tank will see deliveries taking place in 2021, with final trials for the Zircon hypersonic missile wrapping up later this year and the Poseidon-carrier Belgorod submarine set for trials in May.

“This ‘security-dilemma’ scenario that supposedly witnesses increased Western defense spending as a direct reaction to Russian force modernization may be viewed through the Western lens of not only attempting to supersede Russian technological advancements in various defense sectors, but also serve as a counterbalance to Russian influence in several theatres around the world. This seems like a far more likely driving force for rising Western defense expenditure than a simple shift from the war-on-terror, particularly given Russia’s increased assertiveness in places such as Ukraine, escalating activities in the Arctic Circle and their expanding military footprint in Africa.”

According to GlobalData report, ‘Russia – FY 2020 Defense Budget Analysis, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts’, Russia increased its overall defense budget in 2020 to US$59.2bn, with US$23.7bn of the total spent on acquisitions. Official NATO figures suggest that defense expenditure for the US and NATO countries has increased from US$904bn in 2017 to a high in 2020 totaling US$1,030bn. However, NATO Europe and Canada’s spending on major defense equipment has seen an overall decrease from 2017 to 2020 by -2.5%.