Novavax’s investigational COVID-19 vaccine, NVX-CoV2373, is forecast to have $33.3bn total sales for 2021–2027 and to be the second-leading vaccine candidate by peak forecast sales after BioNTech/Pfizer’s Comirnaty despite facing delays. NVX-CoV2373 is expected to generate $1.8bn sales in 2021, and have a steady growth in sales through 2027, with peak forecast sales of $7.2bn expected in 2027, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

Keshalini Sabaratnam, PhD, Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The vaccine candidate has demonstrated a potent efficacy of 96.4%, which is on par with the leading vaccine candidates from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, making it a strong contender among the second wave of vaccines to enter the market. It has also been shown to be 86.3% effective against the newer UK variant, which will help boost the vaccine roll-out in the UK once approved. Additionally, the vaccine is stable and can be stored at refrigerator temperatures, which allows for wider distribution.”

Novavax expects to receive UK and FDA approval in Q2 2021 after recently reporting promising results from the final analysis of its Phase III UK trial. Although Novavax’s Phase III trial in the US is still ongoing, the company expects that the FDA will allow it to use UK trial data to seek emergency use authorization.

The results from NVX-CoV2373’s Phase IIb trial conducted in South Africa have been less promising. The vaccine demonstrated an overall efficacy of 48.6% against predominantly variant strains circulating in the trial region. Nevertheless, across both the UK and South Africa trials, NVX-CoV2373 has demonstrated 100% protection against severe disease, including all hospitalization and death.

Sabaratnam concludes: “If NVX-CoV2373 receives approval, it will contribute toward boosting the vaccine roll-out across multiple geographies in H2, which will help bring the pandemic under control.”