Solar photovoltaic (PV) accounted for 8.1% of Poland’s total power capacity in 2020 and this is estimated to reach 21% in 2030. GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, estimates that Poland will have renewable power capacity of around 33.7 GW by 2030, of which 14.5 GW capacity will be solar photovoltaic (PV). Poland’s current 2030 solar PV target is 7 GW, which means the country is set to surpass its target by over 100%.

GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Poland Power Market Outlook to 2030, Update 2021 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape’, reveals that during 2000–2020, thermal power capacity dominated Poland’s energy mix with almost 70.4% share in total power capacity in 2020. However, during 2020–2030, the share of thermal power capacity is expected to decline and reach 47.8% by 2030. Similarly, the share of hydropower capacity is also expected to decline by 2030 compared to 2020.

Aditya Sharma, Power Analyst at GlobalData comments: “Poland’s Government plans to compensate this decline with renewable power capacity growth. By 2030, the share of renewable power capacity is set to reach 48%, driven mostly by solar PV installations. The growth of solar PV in Poland is driven by recent and upcoming renewable energy auctions in which a significant capacity is awarded to solar PV. For instance, in December 2020, the government announced in its budget regulation document that it will award 1,000 MW solar PV capacity through small projects and 800 MW through large projects. Moreover, under its new Poland Energy Policy 2040, the government is targeting a solar PV capacity of 7 GW by 2030 and 16 GW by 2040.”

The country is expected to observe a significant growth in the micro-PV installation segment. One of the primary drivers for this increased deployment is the favorable regulatory regime and tax system. The government has reduced Value Added Tax (VAT) from 23% to 8% for residential solar installations (micro-PV systems) and introduced a new Mój Prąd (My Electricity) rebate scheme as well for residential PV.

Sharma adds: “Poland’s energy market is slowly transitioning toward subsidy-free utility-scale projects, with its first subsidy-free project expected to come online in the first half of 2021. Increasing popularity of subsidy-free solar plants reflects an increasingly attractive investment framework, which may later lead to a faster solar expansion rate during 2021–2030.”