Retail growth in India to suffer by 10.1ppts in 2020 due to COVID-19 impact, says GlobalData

Retail sales in India are now forecast to reach INR66,394bn (US$878.4bn) in 2020 (post-COVID estimates) compared to INR64,892bn in 2019, a growth of 2.3% compared to the original forecast of 12.4%, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

The outbreak led to a preventive lockdown across the country for more than two months as of now (started on 25 March 2020), bringing the economic activity to a standstill. The lockdown has affected jobs and spending capacity of close to a quarter of the Indian population, who work in the informal sector comprising daily wage workers.

Suresh Sunkara, Retail Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Despite measures to stimulate the economy in terms of economic packages and a relaxation of lockdown measures, non-essential retail growth in India is not expected to reach normalcy before Q4 2020.

“The festive season in India in the latter part of 2020 is expected to help retail, but this will entirely depend on how soon the pandemic is brought under control and employment is back on track.”

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