Afghanistan Defense Market – Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecast to 2024

Table of Contents

LIST OF FIGURES

LIST OF TABLES

1. Introduction

1.1. What is this Report About?

1.2. Definitions

1.3. Summary Methodology

1.4. About GlobalData

2. Executive Summary

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities

3.1. Current Market Scenario

3.1.1. Primary Threat Perception

3.1.2. Military Doctrine and Strategy

3.1.3. Procurement Programs

3.1.4. Geopolitical, Social and Economic Scenario

3.1.5. Political and Strategic Alliances

3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast

3.2.1. Afghanistan’s defense expenditure is expected to register a CAGR of

8.77% over 2020–2024

3.2.2. US aid to Afghanistan is expected to increase over the forecast period

3.2.3. The resurgence of the Taliban, the ongoing war against terrorism and the capacity building of Afghan forces is expected to fuel defense expenditure over the forecast period

3.2.4. Afghan defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP expected to increase considerably over the forecast period

3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation

3.3.1. Capital expenditure’s share is anticipated to decrease over forecast period

3.3.2. Capital expenditure expected to increase at a CAGR of

1.60% over the forecast period

3.3.3. Per capita defense expenditure anticipated to increase over the forecast period

3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast

3.4.1. Afghanistan’s homeland security budget is set to increase at a CAGR of

3.31% over the forecast period

3.4.2. Homeland security expenditure to be triggered by the country’s efforts to counter the drug trade and human trafficking

3.5. Benchmarking Against Key Global Markets

3.5.1. Afghanistan’s defense expenditure expected to grow significantly over forecast period

3.5.2. Afghanistan’s defense expenditure is low compared to other Asian countries

3.5.3. Afghanistan allocates a higher share of GDP to defense compared to other Asian countries

3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators

3.6.1. Top 10 Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) – Projections over 2019–2024

3.6.2. Land-based C4ISR

3.6.3. Soldier Modernization – C4ISR

3.6.4. Tactical Communications – Man-Portable

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics

4.1. Import Market Dynamics

4.1.1. Afghanistan relies on defense imports from foreign countries

4.1.2. The US emerged as the largest suppliers of arms

4.1.3. Armored vehicles and aircraft dominate Afghanistan’s military imports

4.2. Export Market Dynamics

4.2.1. Afghanistan’s domestic defense manufacturing is expected to be nil over the forecast period

5. Industry Dynamics

5.1. Five Forces Analysis

5.1.1. Bargaining Power of Supplier: Medium

5.1.2. Bargaining Power of Buyer: Medium

5.1.3. Barrier to Entry: Low

5.1.4. Intensity of Rivalry: Medium

5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: High

6. Market Entry Strategy

6.1. Budget process

6.2. Procurement Policy and Process

6.3. Market Regulation

6.3.1. Afghanistan has not disclosed an FDI policy or investment regulations

6.3.2. Offset obligation not disclosed by the government

6.4. Market Entry Route

6.4.1. Equipment manufacturers can enter the market through government-to-government deals

6.5. Key Challenges

6.5.1. Corruption and malpractices

6.5.2. Lack of skilled labor

6.5.3. Limited defense budget

7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights

7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview

7.1.1. Afghanistan Market Share Analysis

7.2. Key Companies

7.2.1. General Dynamics: Overview

7.2.2. General Dynamics: Products

7.2.3. General Dynamics: Recent Contract Wins

7.2.4. Sierra Nevada Corporation: Overview

7.2.5. Sierra Nevada Corporation: Products

7.2.6. Sierra Nevada Corporation: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives

7.2.7. Sierra Nevada Corporation: Alliances

7.2.8. Sierra Nevada Corporation: Recent Contract Wins

7.2.9. Lockheed Martin Corp.: Overview

7.2.10. Lockheed Martin Corp.: Products and Services

7.2.11. Lockheed Martin Corp.: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives

7.2.12. Lockheed Martin Corp.: Recent Contract Wins

7.2.13. MD Helicopters: Overview

7.2.14. MD Helicopters: Products and Services

7.2.15. MD Helicopters: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives

7.2.16. MD Helicopters: Recent Contract Wins

8. Business Environment and Country Risk

8.1. Economic Performance

8.1.1. GDP Per Capita

8.1.2. GDP, Current Prices (US$ Billion)

8.1.3. Local Currency Unit per US Dollar

8.1.4. Exports of Goods and Services (LCU)

8.1.5. Imports of Goods and Services (LCU)

8.1.6. Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP

8.1.7. Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP

8.1.8. Service Imports as a Percentage of GDP

8.1.9. Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP

8.1.10. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP

8.1.11. Net Foreign Direct Investment

8.1.12. Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP

8.1.13. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion)

9. Appendix

9.1. About GlobalData

9.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Afghanistan’s Ongoing Procurement Programs

Table 2: Afghanistan’s Future Procurement Programs

Table 3: Top Afghan Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million), 2019–2024

Table 4: Afghanistan’s Defense Expenditure (AFN Billion and US$ Billion), 2015–2024

Table 5: US Aid to Afghanistan (US$ Billion), 2015–2024

Table 6: Afghanistan’s GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2015–2024

Table 7: Afghanistan’s Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015–2024

Table 8: Afghanistan’s Defense Capital Expenditure (AFN Billion and US$ Billion), 2015–2024

Table 9: Afghanistan’s Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015–2024

Table 10: Afghanistan’s Defense Homeland Security Expenditure, 2015–2024

Table 11: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2015–2019 vs 2020–2024

Table 12: Top Afghan Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million), 2019–2024

Table 13: Afghanistan’s Budgeting Process

Table 14: Top Defense Suppliers in the Afghan Defense Industry By Value (US$ Million), 2019–2024

Table 15: Competitive Landscape of the Afghan Defense Market

Table 16: General Dynamics – Products

Table 17: General Dynamics – Recent Contract Wins

Table 18: Sierra Nevada Corporation – Products

Table 19: Sierra Nevada Corporation – Alliances

Table 20: Sierra Nevada Corporation – Recent Contract Wins

Table 21: Lockheed Martin Corp. – Products and Services

Table 22: Lockheed Martin Corp. – Recent Contract Wins

Table 23: MD Helicopters – Products and Services

Table 24: MD Helicopters – Recent Contract Wins

List of Figures

Figure 1: Afghanistan’s Defense Budget: 2020 and 2024

Figure 2: Afghanistan’s Defense Imports/Exports: 2014 and 2018

Figure 3: Afghanistan’s Top Prospective Procurements/Developments

Figure 4: Afghanistan’s National Security Threats

Figure 5: Afghanistan’s Partnering Countries for Defense Cooperation and Military Training

Figure 6: Afghanistan’s Defense Expenditure (AFN Billion), 2015–2024

Figure 7: Afghanistan’s Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015–2024

Figure 8: US Aid to Afghanistan (US$ Billion), 2015–2024

Figure 9: Afghanistan’s GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2015–2024

Figure 10: Afghanistan’s Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015–2024

Figure 11: Afghanistan’s Defense Capital Expenditure (AFN Billion), 2015–2024

Figure 12: Afghanistan’s Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015–2024

Figure 13: Afghanistan’s Per Capita Expenditure (US$), 2015–2024

Figure 14: Afghanistan’s Defense Homeland Security Expenditure (AFN Billion), 2015–2024

Figure 15: Afghanistan’s Defense Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015–2024

Figure 16: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2015–2019 vs 2020–2024

Figure 17: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2019 and 2024

Figure 18: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2019

Figure 19: Land-based C4ISR Market Size (US$ Million), 2019–2024

Figure 20: Soldier Modernization – C4ISR Market Size (US$ Million), 2019–2024

Figure 21:Tactical Communications – Man-Portable Market Size (US$ Million), 2019–2024

Figure 22: Top Afghan Defense Procurements in Terms of Their Supplier Relationships

Figure 23: Afghanistan’s Defense Imports (US$ Million), 2014–2018

Figure 24: Afghanistan’s Defense Imports by Country (%), 2014–2018

Figure 25: Afghanistan’s Defense Imports by Weapon Category (%), 2014–2018

Figure 26: Industry Dynamics Porter’s Five Forces Analysis

Figure 27: Key Challenges in Afghanistan’s Defense Market

Figure 28: Afghanistan Market Share Analysis, 2018

Figure 29: Afghanistan’s GDP Per Capita, 2015–2025 (US$)

Figure 30: Afghanistan’s GDP, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015–2025

Figure 31: Local Currency Unit per US$ – Exchange Rate, 2015–2024

Figure 32: Afghanistan’s Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005–2014

Figure 33: Afghanistan’s Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005–2014

Figure 34: Afghanistan’s Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2008–2013

Figure 35: Afghanistan’s Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2008–2013

Figure 36: Afghanistan’s Service Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2008–2013

Figure 37: Afghanistan’s Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2008–2013

Figure 38: Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP (LCU), 2008–2012

Figure 39: Afghanistan’s Foreign Direct Investment, Net (BoP, Current US$ Billion), 2008–2013

Figure 40: Afghanistan’s Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP, 2008–2013

Figure 41: Afghanistan’s Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005–2014