Australian Retail Deposits: Forecasts and Opportunities

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2

1.1. Australia’s retail deposit market still offers growth opportunity 2

1.2. Key findings 2

1.3. Critical success factors 2

2. SIZING AND FORECASTING 4

2.1. By 2021 retail deposits will have grown by almost half a trillion dollars 4

2.1.1. Australia’s retail savings will grow more slowly, requiring more refined customer targeting 4

2.1.2. Lower net saving has constrained retail deposit growth but the market has reached A$1tn 4

2.1.3. Deposits will grow as a share of national savings, mainly due to the expected increase in rates 8

2.2. Certificates of deposit are in long-term decline due to low rates 9

2.2.1. Deposits in transaction accounts and instant-access savings or cash management accounts have grown 9

2.2.2. The shift in deposit products is the result of a convergence in APRs as rates have declined 10

2.3. Regional deposit markets are heavily skewed towards the largest states 12

2.3.1. The East coast dominates the deposit market with little change forecast 12

2.3.2. Total deposit growth is largely dependent upon average deposit growth in such a mature market 13

3. DRIVERS OF GROWTH AND PRODUCT 15

3.1. Macroeconomic conditions are mixed, moderating growth 15

3.1.1. Net saving by households is trending down from its post-financial crisis highs, though it remains elevated 15

3.1.2. Renewed growth in wages and employment will support deposit growth, albeit modestly 17

4. CUSTOMER SEGMENTS 20

4.1. Mass affluent households are the prime large deposit market 20

4.1.1. The mass affluent are still content to lock away wealth in deposits 20

4.1.2. Mass affluent numbers are trending up, representing a larger market opportunity 21

4.2. Switchers are few and far between and involve poaching the main financial institution relationship 22

4.2.1. With a homogenized market, interesting consumers in new brands is a challenge 23

4.2.2. Targeting switchers will result in a younger customer base 24

4.2.3. Switchers are mostly motivated by push factors, making them hard to appeal to 25

4.3. Young people and students are the easiest to convert but are tricky to retain 26

4.3.1. Younger consumers are cheap to serve but expensive to retain 26

4.3.2. Digital channels must form the core of acquisition and servicing 28

4.3.3. Older consumers are likely to give ADIs the largest deposits and are a growth market even if they are difficult to attract 28

5. COMPETITIVE DYNAMICS 30

5.1. The big four dominate the retail savings market 30

5.1.1. The dominant savings brands in the market are mainly the largest banks 30

5.1.2. Commonwealth Bank retains a leading market share 30

5.1.3. Both NAB and ANZ saw market share slip slightly in 2016 30

5.1.4. The 2017 budget will likely stoke competition for retail deposits from Australia’s largest ADIs 33

5.2. New product innovation has been sparse, with the focus simply on rates 34

5.2.1. Consumers prefer instant-access over fixed-term accounts for their primary savings accounts 34

5.2.2. P2P lending is not a major threat to ADIs yet, but prolonged low rates could change this 34

5.2.3. Value-added services to the deposit account are mainly confined to investors 37

7. APPENDIX 38

7.1. Abbreviations and acronyms 38

7.2. Methodology 38

7.3. Bibliography 38

7.4. Further reading 39

List of Tables

Table 1: Australian retail savings and investments(A$bn), 2011-21f 9

Table 2: Australian retail deposits share by state and territory, 2011-20f 12

Table 3: Average retail savings deposits by state and territory and2011-20 CAGRs (%) 13

Table 4: Percentage of individuals reporting interest income on their tax returns, 2011-15 14

Table 5: Age distribution of Australian retail savings deposits (excluding offset accounts) A$m, 2011-16 29

Table 6: Top 10 Australia retail deposit takers, 2015-16 32

Table 7: Willingness of Australians to lend via P2P lenders by age, 2016 36

List of Figures

Figure 1: Australian retail deposits will grow below-trend for the next couple of years due to modest wage growth 5

Figure 2: Retail bank income remains strong, but less and less of it is due to retail deposit accounts 7

Figure 3: After falling as a share of liquid assets, deposits are set to regain their share of retail savings and investments 8

Figure 4: Illiquid deposits are giving way to instant-access products, with certificates of deposit bearing the brunt of this shift in savings behavior 10

Figure 5: As retail rates have fallen, the benefit of locking away money has declined 11

Figure 6: Following a spike household savings are trending down, constraining growth in deposits 16

Figure 7: Consumer confidence has rallied modestly since crashing in 2015, keeping deposit growth a priority among cautious Australians 17

Figure 8: The heady days of the mining boom are over, but so too is the depression of the bust 18

Figure 9: Under-employment has become progressively less correlated to unemployment 19

Figure 10: While the mass affluent have more diversified savings, their deposits remain huge 21

Figure 11: Encouragingly for the deposit market, mass affluent savers are increasing their share of the market 22

Figure 12: After a brief spike the rate of switching has declined, leaving Australia well below similar markets 24

Figure 13: A desire to leave the current bank is as often as not the reason behind switching the main financial institution 25

Figure 14: Messages that appeal to the young are crucial for ADIs looking to win clients off rivals 26

Figure 15: Saving among millennials is typical for Australia but with a greater focus on home deposits and education expenses 27

Figure 16: Day-to-day account management is almost fully conducted online among 18-34 year olds 28

Figure 17: The retail deposit market is highly consolidated, with almost two thirds of deposits by value held by a big four bank 31

Figure 18: Negligible APRs haven’t driven savers into the arms of P2P lenders yet 35

Figure 19: LendInvest has moved squarely into property lending and raising the funds to provide it, which is a direct threat to the retail bank 36

Figure 20: Personal financial management tools are an unmet need for a large minority of the market 37