EpiCast Report: Atrial Fibrillation – Epidemiology Forecast to 2025

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Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a disorder of the heart's conduction system. The condition is characterized by an irregular heart rhythm that is either too fast or too slow. During AF, the two upper chambers of the heart (atria) beat out of coordination with the two lower chambers (ventricles) due to disorganized electrical signals. Consequently, the blood doesn't flow as well as it should from the atria to the ventricles, resulting in poor blood supply to the rest of the body. AF symptoms typically include heart palpitations, chest discomfort, shortness of breath, dizziness, and weakness (CDC, 2015; Mayo Clinic, 2016; NHLBI, 2014). However, individuals with AF may be asymptomatic and not even know that they have the condition until it is identified through an electrocardiogram (ECG) test.

In the 8MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed prevalent cases of AF will increase from 9,487,217 cases in 2015 to 11,536,773 cases in 2025, at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 2.16%. The US will have the highest number of diagnosed prevalent cases of AF among the 8MM throughout the forecast period, while Canada will have the lowest. In the 8MM, permanent AF is forecast to be the predominant subtype of AF. In the US, Germany, Spain, the UK, Japan, and Canada, paroxysmal AF is forecast to be the second most predominant subtype, while persistent AF is the second most common subtype in France and Italy.

Scope

The Atrial fibrillation (AF) EpiCast Report and EpiCast Model provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical trends for AF in the eight major markets (8MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and Canada). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed prevalent cases of AF based on country-specific studies published in peer-reviewed journals. The diagnosed prevalent cases of AF are segmented by age (at 5-year intervals, starting at age 40 years), sex, and clinical subtypes (paroxysmal, persistent, and permanent AF) in the 8MM.

The AF epidemiology report and model were written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.

The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 8MM.

The EpiCast Model is easy to navigate, interactive with dashboards, and epidemiology-based with transparent and consistent methodologies. Moreover, the model supports data presented in the report and showcases disease trends over a 10-year forecast period using reputable sources.

Table of Contents

1Table of Contents

1.1List of Tables

1.2List of Figures

2Epidemiology

2.1Risk Factors and Comorbidities

2.2Global Trends

2.3Forecast Methodology

2.3.1Sources Used

2.3.2Forecast Assumptions and Methods

2.3.3Sources Not Used

2.4Epidemiological Forecast for AF (2015–2025)

2.4.1Diagnosed Prevalent Cases

2.5Discussion

2.5.1Epidemiological Forecast Insight

2.5.2Limitations of the Analysis

2.5.3Strengths of the Analysis

3Appendix

3.1Bibliography

3.2About the Authors

3.2.1Epidemiologist

3.2.2Reviewers

3.2.3Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

3.2.4Global Head of Healthcare

3.3About GlobalData

3.4About EpiCast

3.5Disclaimer

Table

Table 1: Clinical Subtypes of AF

Table 2: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for AF

Table 3: Prevalence (%) of AF as Reported in Epidemiological Studies

Table 4: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF

Table 5: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast Clinical Subtypes of Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF

Table 6: 8MM, Sources Not Used in the Epidemiological Analysis of AF

Table 7: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF, Ages =40 Years, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015–2025

Table 8: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015

Table 9: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF, Ages =40 Years, N (Row %), 2015

Figures

Figure 1: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF, Ages =40 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2015–2025

Figure 2: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF, Both Sexes, N, 2015

Figure 3: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF, Ages =40 Years, 2015

Figure 4: 8MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalence of AF, Ages =40 Years, N, 2015

Figure 5: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AF by Clinical Subtypes, Both Sexes, Ages =40 Years, 2015

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