EpiCast Report: Dengue – Epidemiology Forecast to 2023

Pages: 43 Published: May 01, 2014 Report Code: GDHCER062-14

Dengue fever is a febrile illness caused by a single-stranded flavirius most commonly transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Dengue fever is one of the most prevalent arthropod-borne diseases affecting humans. The severity of dengue fever ranges from asymptomatic cases, to classic dengue fever, and to DHF or DSS.

GlobalData epidemiologists sourced government-based publications for the forecast of reported laboratory-confirmed dengue fever cases, including official national dengue reports, weekly surveillance reports, and reportable disease databases.

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that laboratory-confirmed dengue cases in the 5MM will increase from an annual average of 304,608 cases from 2009–2013 to 339,104 cases in 2023 with an annual growth rate (AGR) of 1.13%. Brazil will have almost half the number of reported laboratory-confirmed dengue cases among the 5MM throughout the forecast period (207,000 cases in 2023). GlobalData epidemiologists believe that introductions of new or long-dormant dengue serotypes would be a significant driver in disease transmission in the 5MM during the next 10 years.

This report is based on laboratory-confirmed dengue cases reported by the national surveillance systems of the 5MM. Therefore, it should be used with the understanding that reported cases are a function of the dengue case burden in the country as well as the type and capacity of the dengue surveillance system.

This report provide a comprehensive analysis of dengue fever epidemiology in the 5MM, incorporating risk factors, disease burden, outbreak periodicity, serotype circulation pattern, regional variations in disease pattern, and age- and sex-specific distribution. The analysis is based on strong sources, including official national dengue reports, weekly surveillance reports, and reportable disease databases. GlobalData epidemiologists supplemented the national-level surveillance data with peer-reviewed regional studies. The analysis was also conducted using consistent methodology across the 5MM, thereby allowing meaningful comparison of the forecast numbers.

Scope

The Dengue EpiCast Report and EpiCast Model provides an overview of the dengue fever risk factors and comorbidities, global and historical epidemiology trends, and circulating serotypes (DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4) in five major markets (5MM) (Brazil, India, Mexico, Singapore, and Thailand). In addition, this report includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast for the reported laboratory-confirmed incident cases of dengue fever (including classic dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), and dengue shock syndrome (DSS)) for the 5MM. The reported laboratory-confirmed incident cases are segmented by sex and age (<1 year, 1 year, 2–14 years, 15–44 years, 45–64 years, and =65 years).

The dengue epidemiology report and model were written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.

The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 5MM.

The EpiCast Model is easy to navigate, interactive with dashboards, and epidemiology-based with transparent and consistent methodologies. Moreover, the model supports data presented in the report and showcases disease trends over a 10-year forecast period using reputable sources.

Reasons to Buy

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Table of Contents

1Table of Contents

1.1List of Tables

1.2List of Figures

2Introduction

2.1Catalyst

2.2Related Reports

2.3Upcoming Reports

3Epidemiology

3.1Disease Background

3.2Risk Factors and Comorbidities

3.3Global Trends

3.3.1Incidence and Geographic Distribution

3.3.2Dengue Periodic and Seasonal Patterns

3.3.3Dengue Serotypes

3.4Forecast Methodology

3.4.1Sources Used

3.4.2Sources Not Used

3.4.3Forecast Assumptions and Methods

3.5Epidemiological Forecast of Dengue (2013–2023)

3.5.1Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases

3.5.2Sex-Specific Distribution of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases

3.5.3Age-Specific Distribution of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases

3.5.4Age-Standardized Incidence of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue

3.6Discussion

3.6.1Epidemiological Forecast Insight

3.6.2Limitations of the Analysis

3.6.3Strengths of the Analysis

4Appendix

4.1Bibliography

4.2Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study

4.3About the Authors

4.3.1Epidemiologists

4.3.2Reviewers

4.3.3Global Director of Epidemiology

4.3.4Global Head of Healthcare

4.4About GlobalData

4.5About EpiCast

4.6Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Risk Factors for Dengue Fever and Severe Dengue Fever (Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever and Dengue Shock Syndrome)8

Table 2: Periodicity and Seasonality of Dengue Fever in the 5MM, 2003–201311

Table 3: 5MM, Circulating Dengue Virus Serotypes and Predominant Serotype, 2003–201312

Table 4: 5MM, Sources of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Fever Data12

Table 5: 5MM, Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases, N (Col %), Men and Women, All Ages, Select Years 2009–202321

Table 6: 5MM, Sex-Specific Distribution of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases, All Ages, Annual Average 2009–201323

Table 7: 5MM, Age-Specific Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases, All Ages, Annual Average 2009–201324

List of Figures

Figure 1: 5MM, Incident Cases of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases, All Ages, Men and Women, Annual Average 2009–2013 and 20235

Figure 2: 5MM, Incidence Rate (Cases per 100,000 Population) of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases (Including Classic Dengue Fever and DHF), Men and Women, All Ages, 2003–20139

Figure 3: 5MM, Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases, Men and Women, All Ages, 2014–202322

Figure 4: 5MM, Sex-Specific Distribution of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases, All Ages, Annual Average 2009–201323

Figure 5: 5MM, Age-Specific Distribution of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases, Men and Women, Annual Average 2009–201325

Figure 6: 5MM, Age-Standardized Incidence of Reported Laboratory-Confirmed Dengue Cases, All Ages, Annual Average 2009–201326

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