EpiCast Report: Hepatitis C Virus – Epidemiology Forecast to 2025
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Hepatitis C is a blood-borne liver disease caused by the hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV can cause both acute and chronic hepatitis infection. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), an estimated 130–150 million individuals worldwide are affected with chronic HCV and about 500,000 people died of HCV-related conditions, including liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), in 2010 (Lozano et al., 2012; WHO, 2015).
In the 9MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the anti-HCV+ total prevalent cases will increase from 19,842,780 total prevalent cases in 2015 to 20,886,113 total prevalent cases in 2025, at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 0.53%. China will have the highest number of anti-HCV+ total prevalent cases among the 9MM throughout the forecast period, while Germany will have the lowest number of anti-HCV+ total prevalent cases. In the 9MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the HCV RNA+ total prevalent cases will increase from 9,932,624 total prevalent cases in 2015, to 10,399,601 total prevalent cases in 2025, at an AGR of 0.47%. In the 9MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the anti-HCV+ diagnosed prevalent cases will increase from 5,681,205 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2015, to 5,944,944 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2025, at an AGR of 0.46%. In the 9MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the HCV RNA+ diagnosed prevalent cases will increase from 2,992,433 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2015, to 3,115,901 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2025, at an AGR of 0.41%.
This forecast is supported by historical data from government reports and national studies published in peer-reviewed journals. All data used for the analysis were country-specific. All studies that were used confirmed anti-HCV+ and HCV RNA+ total prevalent cases through laboratory diagnostic tests. Also, GlobalData epidemiologists did not include studies that oversampled the high-risk population groups, such as IDUs, as we believe this would inflate the anti-HCV+ total prevalence. Furthermore, additional segmentation of the anti-HCV+ diagnosed prevalent cases by age, sex, and liver cirrhosis status will provide the most refined and granular forecast results. The forecast methodology was also consistent across the 9MM, thereby allowing for a meaningful comparison of the forecast numbers in these markets.
Scope
The Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) EpiCast Report and EpiCast Model provide an overview of the risk factors and global trends of HCV in the 9MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Brazil, and China). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast of the anti-HCV+ and HCV RNA+ total prevalent cases (including diagnosed and undiagnosed), which are segmented by sex and age. The anti-HCV+ total prevalent cases are further segmented by genotype, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) comorbidity, and hepatitis B virus (HBV) comorbidity among the 9MM. Additionally, the report also includes anti-HCV+ and HCV RNA+ diagnosed prevalent cases, which are also segmented by sex and age. The anti-HCV+ diagnosed prevalent cases are segmented by liver cirrhosis status. The HCV epidemiology report and model were written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 9MM.
The EpiCast Model is easy to navigate, interactive with dashboards, and epidemiology-based with transparent and consistent methodologies. Moreover, the model supports data presented in the report and showcases disease trends over a 10-year forecast period using reputable sources.
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