EpiCast Report: Small Cell Lung Cancer – Epidemiology Forecast to 2024

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SCLC is a distinct form of lung cancer that typically initially presents in the central airways before spreading to the submucosa, which leads to the narrowing of airways. SCLC is considered to be highly malignant due to its cell composition that causes faster doubling time, earlier development of metastases, and worsened prognosis when compared with other lung cancer types. SCLC is widely considered to account for 15% of all lung cancer cases, with the other lung cancer cases being predominantly caused by non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). SCLC is typically presented in two main stages, limited stage (LS-SCLC) and extensive stage (ES-SCLC).

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed incident cases of SCLC will increase from 79,077 cases in 2014 to 91,640 cases in 2024 across the 7MM with an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 1.59%. The US had the highest proportion of SCLC diagnosed incident cases out of the 7MM throughout the forecast period. In 2014, there were 23,361 LS-SCLC diagnosed incident cases and 55,716 ES-SCLC diagnosed incident cases in the 7MM, accounting for 29.54% and 70.46% of the total SCLC diagnosed incident cases, respectively. Further, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of SCLC will increase from 59,330 cases in 2014 to 71,528 cases in 2024 with an AGR of 2.06%. Out of the 7MM, Japan had the highest proportion of SCLC five-year diagnosed prevalent cases across the forecast period.

GlobalData’s epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed incident and the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of SCLC in the 7MM is supported by age- and sex-specific incidence data obtained for the individual markets. Further, the analysis was strengthened by the use of a consistent methodology and definition of lung cancer for the diagnosed incident cases in the SCLC forecast, and using linear regression techniques when suitable. In addition, the forecast is based on age-, sex-, and market-specific historical data points obtained from the NCC, CI5plus, ITACAN, SEER, and ZfKD databases. The use of a consistent methodology across the 7MM to forecast the total diagnosed incident cases, and the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of SCLC, allows for a meaningful comparison of the forecast incident cases and the forecast five-year prevalent cases of SCLC across the 7MM. Further, GlobalData epidemiologists provided the diagnosed incident cases of SCLC in the 7MM segmented into LS-SCLC and ES-SCLC at diagnosis.

Scope

The Small Cell Lung Cancer (SCLC) EpiCast Report and EpiCast Model provide an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and global trends for RSV infection in the seven major markets (7MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast of the diagnosed incident cases of SCLC and the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of SCLC segmented by sex, age (beginning at 18 years and ending at =85 years), and stage in these markets.

The SCLC epidemiology report and model were written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.

The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 10MM.

The EpiCast Model is easy to navigate, interactive with dashboards, and epidemiology-based with transparent and consistent methodologies. Moreover, the model supports data presented in the report and showcases disease trends over a 10-year forecast period using reputable sources.

Table of Contents

1Table of Contents

1.1List of Tables

1.2List of Figures

2Introduction

2.1Catalyst

2.2Related Reports

2.3Upcoming Reports

3Epidemiology

3.1Disease Background

3.2Risk Factors and Comorbidities

3.3Global Trends

3.3.1Incidence

3.3.2Stage at Diagnosis

3.3.3Relative Survival

3.4Forecast Methodology

3.4.1Sources Used

3.4.2Sources Not Used

3.4.3Forecast Assumptions and Methods

3.5Epidemiological Forecast for SCLC (2014–2024)

3.5.1Diagnosed Incident Cases of SCLC

3.5.2Age-Specific Incident Cases of SCLC

3.5.3Sex-Specific Incident Cases of SCLC

3.5.4Age-Standardized Incidence of SCLC

3.5.5Stage-Specific Incident Cases of SCLC

3.5.6Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SCLC

3.5.7Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SCLC Segmented by Stage

3.6Discussion

3.6.1Epidemiological Forecast Insight

3.6.2Limitations of the Analysis

3.6.3Strengths of the Analysis

4Appendix

4.1Bibliography

4.2About the Authors

4.2.1Epidemiologists

4.2.2Reviewers

4.2.3Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

4.2.4Global Head of Healthcare

4.3About GlobalData

4.4About EpiCast

4.5Disclaimer

Table

Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities Associated with SCLC

Table 2: 7MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incidence of SCLC, 2014

Table 3: 7MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of SCLC Segmented by Stage at Diagnosis

Table 4: 7MM, Sources Used for the Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of LS-SCLC

Table 5: 7MM, Sources Used for the Five-Year Relative Survival of ES-SCLC

Table 6: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of SCLC, Both Sexes, Ages =18 Years, Select Years, 2014–2024

Table 7: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SCLC, Ages =18 Years, N (Row %), 2014

Table 8: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of SCLC, Ages =18 Years, N (Row %), 2014

Table 9: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of SCLC Segmented by Stage at Diagnosis, Ages =18 Years, N, 2014

Table 10: 7MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SCLC, Both Sexes, Ages =18 Years, Select Years, 2014–2024

Table 11: 7MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SCLC Segmented by Stage at Diagnosis, Ages =18 Years, N, 2014

Figures

Figure 1: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of SCLC, Both Sexes, Ages =18 Years, 2014–2024

Figure 2: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SCLC, Ages =18 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2014

Figure 3: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SCLC, Ages =18 Years, N, 2014

Figure 4: 7MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence of SCLC, Ages =18 Years, 2014

Figure 5: 7MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SCLC, Both Sexes, Ages =18 Years, 2014–2024

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