Future of Emission Trade – Price Volatility will be a Key Characteristic of the Commodity

Pages: 6 Published: April 01, 2012 Report Code: GDAE0131VPT

The price of carbon as a commodity is difficult to forecast accurately because it is driven by complex and subjective issues, and experts’ future projections often differ significantly. Geo-climate and energy policies, geopolitics, global economic growth, crude oil price, coal price and demand, and the supply of tradable carbon are some of the factors driving and shaping the carbon market. The current European sovereign debt crisis has drastically reduced carbon demand and hence its price in the trading market. The failure of the international community to agree on a common goal in a post-2012 Kyoto framework has also damaged the confidence of the private sector and played a role in lowering the price of carbon. GlobalData used a mix of approaches to forecast future prices, categorized as short-term, mid-term and long-term. The short-term price forecast is based on combination of expert opinion, historical trends and recent policy development in the sector. The mid-term and long-term forecasts are based on expert opinion, recent policy developments and likelihood of future policy developments.


The scope of the report includes:

– Nature of Carbon Price

– Short-term Price Forecast

– Mid-term (2013–2015) and Long-term (2015 Onwards) Price Forecast

– Development of Regional and National Carbon Markets

– Conclusions

Reasons to Buy

The viewpoint gives the forecast on market trading prices of carbon in short and medium to long term. The forecast exclusively focus on the market participants and consider their view on future carbon prices. It also covers the national and regional development in the carbon market.

– The forecasted price will help investors to take informed strategic decisions.

– The may also help policy planner to take corrective decisions if required.

– The analysis provide the view of all key active stake-holder on carbon market at a single place

– Very useful for the companies involved in carbon business.

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 1

1.1 List of Tables 1

1.2 List of Figures 1

2 Summary 1

3 Future of Emission Trade – Price Volatility will be a Key Characteristic of the Commodity 1

3.1 Short-term Price Forecast (2012) 2

3.1.1 Historical Price Trends 2

3.1.2 Expert Opinion 2

3.2 Mid-term (2013–2015) and Long-term (2015 Onwards) Price Forecast 3

3.3 Expert Opinion 3

3.4 Latest Developments 3

3.5 Development of Regional and National Carbon Markets 3

3.6 Conclusions 4

4 Appendix 4

4.1 Abbreviations 4

4.2 Methodology 4

4.2.1 Coverage 5

4.2.2 Secondary Research 5

4.2.3 Primary Research 5

4.2.4 Modeling and Forecasting 5

4.3 Contact Us 5

4.4 Disclaimer 5

List of Tables

Table 1: Carbon Price Market, Historical and Short-term Prices 2008–2012 3

Table 2: Carbon Market, Mid and Long-term Carbon Prices, 2012–2020 3

Table 3: Regional and National Carbon Markets 4

Table 4: Abbreviations 4

List of Figures

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: Carbon Price Market, Historical and Short-term Prices 2008–2012 2


Can be used by individual purchaser only


Can be shared globally by unlimited users within the purchasing corporation e.g. all employees of a single company

Get in touch to find out about our multi-purchase discounts

Tel +44 (0) 20 7947 2960

Every customer’s requirement is unique. We understand that and can customize the report basis your exact research requirements pertaining to market insights, innovation insights, strategy and planning, and competitive intelligence. You can also avail the option of purchasing stand-alone sections of the report or request for a country specific report.

GDPR + CCPA Compliant

Personal and transaction information are kept safe from unauthorised use.

Recently Viewed Reports


“The GlobalData platform is our go-to tool for intelligence services. GlobalData provides an easy way to access comprehensive intelligence data around multiple sectors, which essentially makes it a one-for-all intelligence platform, for tendering and approaching customers.

GlobalData is very customer orientated, with a high degree of personalised services, which benefits everyday use. The highly detailed project intelligence and forecast reports can be utilised across multiple departments and workflow scopes, from operational to strategic level, and often support strategic decisions. GlobalData Analytics and visualisation solutions has contributed positively when preparing management presentations and strategic papers.”

Business Intelligence & Marketing Manager, SAL Heavy Lift

“COVID-19 has caused significant interference to our business and the COVID-19 intelligence from GlobalData has helped us reach better decisions around strategy. These two highlights have helped enormously to understand the projections into the future concerning our business units, we also utilise the project database to source new projects for Liebherr-Werk to use as an additional source to pitch for new business.”

Market Analyst & Management, Liebherr-Werk

Your daily news has saved me a lot of time and keeps me up-to-date with what is happening in the market, I like that you almost always have a link to the source origin. We also use your market data in our Strategic Business Process to support our business decisions. By having everything in one place on the Intelligence Center it has saved me a lot of time versus looking on different sources, the alert function also helps with this.

Head of Key Accounts, Saab AB

Having used several other market research companies, I find that GlobalData manages to provide that ‘difficult-to-get’ market data that others can’t, as well as very diverse and complete consumer surveys.

Marketing Intelligence Manager, Portugal Foods
Looking to stay on top of industry & market trends?

Sign up to receive regular alerts for our latest analysis and reports. No matter your industry focus, you can keep your finger on the pulse with our timely updates.