Future of the Australia Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

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The Future of Australia Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022, published by Strategic Defense Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Synopsis

This report offers detailed analysis of Australia defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following –
– Australia defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of Australia defense industry during 2018-2022, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
– Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
– Porter’s Five Force analysis of Australia defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
– Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
– Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years
– Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of Australia defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Scope

– The Australian government remains committed to building strong defense capabilities. The country’s defense budget recorded a CAGR of 0.28% during the historic period (2013-2017), from US$26.2 billion in 2013 to US$26.5 billion in 2017. Modernization initiatives and advanced equipment procurement programs – as outlined in white papers published by the Australian Department of Defense (DoD) – will drive expenditure. According to one white paper, the country is expected to undertake a number of modernization and procurement programs over the coming decade.

– During the historic period, an average of 27.9% of the total defense budget was allocated to capital expenditure; this will reach 39.4% over the forecast period. This is predominantly due to Australia’s planned armed force modernization program and procurement plans. Specifically, investment will be allocated to replacing ageing armored vehicles with infantry fighting and combat reconnaissance vehicles.

– The MoD is expected to invest in Multi-role aircraft, submarines, frigates, multi-role aircraft MRO, land-based C4ISR, and armored fighting vehicles

Reasons to Buy

– This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of Australia defense industry market trends for the coming five years

– The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

– Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

– A deep qualitative analysis of Australia defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

Thales Australia
Boeing Defense Australia
Lockheed Martin Australia
Raytheon Australia
Austal Ltd
Saab Systems
General Dynamics Land Systems Australia
Navantia
Airbius Group Australia
ASC

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Introduction 9

1.1. What is this Report About? 9

1.2. Definitions 9

1.3. Summary Methodology 12

1.4. About Strategic Defense Intelligence 13

2. Executive Summary 14

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 16

3.1. Current Market Scenario 17

3.1.1. Primary threat perception 17

3.1.2. Military doctrine and strategy 18

3.1.3. Military Fleet Size 19

3.1.4. Procurement programs 22

3.1.5. Ongoing procurement programs 22

3.1.6. Future procurement programs 24

3.1.7. Social, political and economic environment and support for defense projects 26

3.1.8. Political and strategic alliances 27

3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 28

3.2.1. The Australian defense budget will grow over the forecast period 28

3.2.2. Military modernization and participation in peacekeeping missions are the major factors driving the Australian defense industry 31

3.2.3. Australian defense budget be at

2.0% of GDP over 2018-2022 33

3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 35

3.3.1. Capital expenditure share to increase over the next five years 35

3.3.2. Capital expenditure to post a forecast-period CAGR of

9.83% 37

3.3.3. Much of the defense budget is allocated to cyberspace and space-related security operations 38

3.3.4. Australia to invest US$5.88 billion on its land forces over the forecast period 40

3.3.5. Air force budget to grow at a CAGR of

6.15% over the forecast period 43

3.3.6. Naval expenditure will post a forecast-period CAGR of

4.21% 46

3.3.7. A large proportion of Australia’s defense budget is allocated to ‘others’ 49

3.3.8. Per capita defense expenditure to increase over the forecast period 52

3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 53

3.4.1. Measures to curb organized crime, cyberattacks, and maritime threats to drive homeland security expenditure 56

3.4.2. Australia faces minimal threat from foreign terrorist organizations 58

3.5. Australia faces moderate threat from foreign terrorist organizations 59

3.6. Australia has a terrorism index score of

2.7 61

3.7. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 62

3.7.1. Australian defense expenditure to remain modest compared to the leading spenders 62

3.7.2. Australia will continue to dominate the arms market in the Asia-Pacific region 64

3.7.3. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP to remain at

1.8% over forecast period 65

3.8. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 66

3.8.1. Multirole aircraft 66

3.8.2. Submarines 67

3.8.3. Frigates 68

3.8.4. Multirole aircraft MRO 69

3.8.5. Land-based C4ISR 70

3.8.6. Armored fighting vehicles 71

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 74

4.1. Import Market Dynamics 75

4.1.1. Defense imports expected to increase considerably over the forecast period 75

4.1.2. The US was the largest arms supplier to Australia during 2012–2016 76

4.1.3. Imports of aircraft and missiles expected to surge over the forecast period 77

4.2. Export Market Dynamics 78

4.2.1. Defense exports are expected to increase over the forecast period owing to the government initiatives 78

4.2.2. The US was the main importer of the Australian defense goods during 2012–2016 79

4.2.3. Aircraft and ships constitute the majority of Australian exports 80

5. Industry Dynamics 81

5.1. Five Forces Analysis 81

5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low to medium 82

5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: high 82

5.1.3. Barrier to entry: high 82

5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: medium to high 82

5.1.5. Threat of substitution: high 82

6. Market Entry Strategy 83

6.1. Market Regulation 83

6.1.1. AIC program ensures the participation of local industry 83

6.1.2. Approval for foreign investment in defense industry set at US$216.2 million 83

6.2. Market Entry Route 85

6.2.1. Budgeting process 85

6.2.2. Procurement policy and process 86

6.2.3. Establishing a domestic subsidiary is the preferred market entry route 87

6.2.4. Foreign OEMs sub-contract defense deals to domestic firms to enter the market 88

6.2.5. Foreign OEMs offer domestic companies access to global supply chains in order to enter the industry 88

6.3. Key Challenges 89

6.3.1. Cost overruns and project delays continue to worry the defense industry 89

6.3.2. Low allocation of skilled labor in the defense industry 90

7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 91

7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 91

7.2. Key Domestic Companies 92

7.2.1. Thales Australia: overview 92

7.2.2. Thales Australia: products and services 92

7.2.3. Thales Australia: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 93

7.2.4. Thales Australia: alliances 94

7.2.5. Thales Australia: recent contract wins 95

7.2.6. Boeing Defense Australia: overview 97

7.2.7. Boeing Defense Australia: products and services 97

7.2.8. Boeing Defense Australia: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 97

7.2.9. Boeing Defense Australia: alliances 98

7.2.10. Boeing Defense Australia: Recent Contract Wins 99

7.2.11. Lockheed Martin Australia: overview 100

7.2.12. Lockheed Martin Australia: products and services 100

7.2.13. Lockheed Martin Australia: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 100

7.2.14. Lockheed Martin Australia: alliances 101

7.2.15. Lockheed Martin Australia: recent contract wins 101

7.2.16. Raytheon Australia: overview 102

7.2.17. Raytheon Australia: products and services 102

7.2.18. Raytheon Australia: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 102

7.2.19. Raytheon Australia: alliances 103

7.2.20. Raytheon Australia: recent contract wins 103

7.2.21. Austal Ltd: overview 105

7.2.22. Austal Ltd: products and services 105

7.2.23. Austal Ltd: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 105

7.2.24. Austal Ltd: alliances 106

7.2.25. Austal Ltd: recent contract wins 106

7.2.26. Saab Systems: overview 107

7.2.27. Saab Systems: products and services 107

7.2.28. Saab Systems: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 108

7.2.29. Saab Systems: alliances 108

7.2.30. Saab Systems: recent contract wins 108

7.2.31. General Dynamics Land Systems Australia: overview 110

7.2.32. General Dynamics Land Systems Australia: products and services 110

7.2.33. General Dynamics Land Systems Australia: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 110

7.2.34. General Dynamics Land Systems Australia: recent contract wins 111

7.2.35. Navantia: overview 112

7.2.36. Navantia: products and services 112

7.2.37. Navantia: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 112

7.2.38. Navantia: alliances 113

7.2.39. Navantia: recent contract wins 113

7.2.40. Airbus Group Australia Pacific: overview 114

7.2.41. Airbus Group Australia Pacific: Major Products and Services 114

7.2.42. Airbus Group Australia Pacific: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 114

7.2.43. Airbus Group Australia Pacific: alliances 115

7.2.44. Airbus Group Australia Pacific: Recent Contract Wins 115

7.3. Key Public Sector Company 116

7.3.1. ASC: overview 116

7.3.2. ASC: Major Products and Services 116

7.3.3. ASC: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 116

7.3.4. ASC: alliances 117

7.3.5. ASC: Recent Contract Wins 117

8. Business Environment and Country Risk 119

8.1. Economic Performance 119

8.1.1. GDP per capita 119

8.1.2. GDP at current prices (US$) 120

8.1.3. Exports of goods and services current prices 121

8.1.4. Imports of goods and services (current prices) 122

8.1.5. Gross national disposable income (US$ billion) 123

8.1.6. Local currency unit per US dollar 124

8.1.7. Market capitalization of listed companies 125

8.1.8. Market capitalization of listed companies a percentage of GDP 126

8.1.9. Government cash surplus/deficit as a percentage of GDP 127

8.1.10. Goods exports as a percentage of GDP 128

8.1.11. Goods imports as a percentage of GDP 129

8.1.12. Goods trade surplus/deficit as a percentage of GDP 130

8.1.13. Service imports as a percentage of GDP 131

8.1.14. Service exports as a percentage of GDP 132

8.1.15. Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ billion) 133

8.1.16. Net foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP 134

8.1.17. Mining, manufacturing, utilities output (LCU Billion) 135

9. Appendix 136

9.1. About SDI 136

9.2. Disclaimer 136

Table

List of Tables

Table 1: Australia Army Strength 19

Table 2: Australian Navy Strength 20

Table 3: Australia Air Force Strength 21

Table 4: Australia – Procurement Programs 22

Table 5: Australia – Future Procurement Programs 24

Table 6: Australia – Defense Expenditure (AUD Billion/US$ Billion), 2013–2022 28

Table 7: Australia – GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2013–2022 33

Table 8: Australia – Defense Budget Split by Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013–2021 35

Table 9: Australia – Defense Capital Expenditure (AUD Billion/US$ Billion), 2013–2022 37

Table 10: Australia – Defense Expenditure Allocation (%), 2013–2022 38

Table 11: Australia Defense Expenditure for Army (AUD Billion & US$ Billion), 2013–2022 41

Table 12: Australia – Defense Expenditure for Air Force (AUD Billion/US$ Billion), 2013–2022 44

Table 13: Australia – Defense Expenditure for Navy (AUD Billion/US$ Billion), 2013–2022 47

Table 14: Australia – Defense Expenditure for Others (AUD Billion/US$ Billion), 2013–2022 50

Table 15: Australia – Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013–2022 52

Table 16: Australia – Homeland Security Expenditure (AUD Billion/US$ Billion), 2013–2022 53

Table 17: Terrorism Index, 2017 59

Table 18: Benchmarking with Key Markets (US$ Billion), 2013–2017 vs. 2018–2022 62

Table 19: FATA Approval for Acquisition within the Defense sector in Australia 84

Table 20: Australia Budget Formation Timetable: (July 1–June 30) 85

Table 21: FMS deals to Australia 86

Table 22: Key Foreign OEMS and Subsidiaries 87

Table 23: Small Projects with Cost Overruns 89

Table 24: Major Projects with Cost Overruns 89

Table 25: Project Delays 90

Table 26: Competitive Landscape of the Polish Defense Industry 91

Table 27: Thales Australia – Main Products and Services 92

Table 28: Thales Australia – Alliances 94

Table 29: Thales Australia – Recent Contract Wins 95

Table 30: Boeing Defense Australia – Main Products and Services 97

Table 31: Boeing Defense Australia – Alliances 98

Table 32: Boeing Defense Australia – Recent Contract Wins 99

Table 33: Lockheed Martin Australia – Main Products and Services 100

Table 34: Lockheed Martin Australia – Alliances 101

Table 35: Lockheed Martin Australia – Recent Contract Wins 101

Table 36: Raytheon Australia – Main Products and Services 102

Table 37: Raytheon Australia – Alliances 103

Table 38: Raytheon Australia – Recent Contract Wins 103

Table 39: Austal Ltd – Main Products and Services 105

Table 40: Austal – Alliances 106

Table 41: Austal Ltd – Recent Contract wins 106

Table 42: Saab Systems – Main Products and Services 107

Table 43: Saab Systems – Alliances 108

Table 44: Saab Systems – Recent Contract Wins 108

Table 45: General Dynamics Land Systems Australia – Main Products and Services 110

Table 46: General Dynamics Land Systems Australia – Recent Contract Wins 111

Table 47: Navantia – Main Products and Services 112

Table 48: Navantia – Alliances 113

Table 49: Navantia – Recent Contract Wins 113

Table 50: Airbus Group Australia Pacific – Main Products and Services 114

Table 51: Airbus Group Australia Pacific – Alliances 115

Table 52: Airbus Group Australia Pacific – Recent Contract Wins 115

Table 53: ASC – Main Products and Services 116

Table 54: ASC – Alliances 117

Table 55: ASC – Recent Contract wins 117

Figures

List of Figures

Figure 1: Australia – Defense Expenditure (AUD Billion), 2013–2022 29

Figure 2: Australia – Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013–2022 30

Figure 3: Australia – GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2013–2022 34

Figure 4: Australia – Defense Budget Split by Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013–2022 36

Figure 5: Australia – Defense Expenditure Allocation (%), 2013–2022 39

Figure 6: Australia – Army Defense Budget (AUD Billion), 2013–2022 42

Figure 7: Australia – Army Defense Budget (US$ Billion), 2013–2022 42

Figure 8: Australia – Air Force Defense Budget (AUD Billion), 2013–2022 45

Figure 9: Australia – Air Force Defense Budget (US$ Billion), 2013–2022 45

Figure 10: Australia – Naval Defense Budget (AUD Billion), 2013–2022 48

Figure 11: Australia – Naval Defense Budget (US$ Billion), 2013–2022 49

Figure 12: Australia – Others Defense Budget (AUD Billion), 2013–2022 50

Figure 13: Australia – Others Defense Budget (US$ Billion), 2013–2022 51

Figure 14: Australian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013–2022 52

Figure 15: Australia – Homeland Security Budget (AUD Billion), 2013–2022 54

Figure 16: Australia – Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2013–2022 55

Figure 17: Terrorism Heat Map, 2017 58

Figure 18: Terrorism Index, 2017 61

Figure 19: Benchmarking with Key Markets (%) 2013–2017 vs. 2018–2022 63

Figure 20: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2017 and 2022 64

Figure 21: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP by Country (%), 2017 65

Figure 22: Multirole Aircraft Market Size (US$ Billion), 2017–2027 66

Figure 23: Diesel Electric Submarine Market Size (US$ Billion), 2017–2027 67

Figure 24: Frigates Market Size (US$ Million), 2017–2027 68

Figure 25: Multirole Aircraft MRO Market Size (US$ Million), 2017–2027 69

Figure 26: Land-Based C4ISR Market Size (US$ Million), 2017–2027 71

Figure 27: Armored Fighting Vehicles Market Size (US$ Million), 2017–2027 73

Figure 28: Australia – Defense Import (US$ Million), 2012–2016 75

Figure 29: Australia – Defense Import by Country (%), 2012–2016 76

Figure 30: Australia – Defense Imports by Category (%), 2012–2016 77

Figure 31: Australia – Defense Export Trend (US$ Million), 2012–2016 78

Figure 32: Australian Defense Exports by Country (%), 2012–2016 79

Figure 33: Australian Defense Exports by Category (%), 2012–2016 80

Figure 34: Industry Dynamics – Porter’s Five Forces Analysis 81

Figure 35: Australia’s GDP Per Capita at Constant Prices (US$), 2015–2025 119

Figure 36: Australia – GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015–2025 120

Figure 37: Australia – Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005–2014 121

Figure 38: Australia – Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005–2014 122

Figure 39: Australia – Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005–2012 123

Figure 40: Australia – Local Currency Unit per US$ – Exchange Rate, 2015–2024 124

Figure 41: Australia – Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005–2012 125

Figure 42: Australia – Market Capitalization of Listed Companies as Percentage of GDP, 2005–2012 126

Figure 43: Australia – Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP, 2005–2012 127

Figure 44: Australia – Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005–2014 128

Figure 45: Australia – Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005–2014 129

Figure 46: Australia – Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP, 2005–2014 130

Figure 47: Australia – Service Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005–2014 131

Figure 48: Australia – Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005–2014 132

Figure 49: Australia – Foreign Direct Investment, Net BoP (US$ Billion), 2005–2014 133

Figure 50: Australia – Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP, 2005–2014 134

Figure 51: Australia Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005–2014 135

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