Future of the Croatian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

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Published: December 30, 2018 Report Code: GDDF0547MR-ST

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"Future of the Croatian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023", published by GlobalData, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

This report offers detailed analysis of the Croatian defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following –
– The Croatian defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Croatian defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
– Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
– Porter’s Five Force analysis of the Croatian defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
– Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
– Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years
– Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Croatian defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.

Scope

– Croatian military expenditure, which stands at US$0.71 billion in 2018, registered at a CAGR of -0.41% during the historic period. There is a huge difference between the planned budget and the executed budget in 2015 due to the economic crisis the country faced. However, the country’s economy is showing some positive signs of recovery, as the 2017 budget marginally surpassed its initially planned estimates.

– Croatia is well known for its multi-vector foreign policy, with which it manages to maintain stable relations with all of its neighbors. It is a relatively peaceful country compared to other Central European nations, which encounter frequent turbulence. Croatia is also an active participant in the NATO Partnership for Peace Program. The growth in the Croatia defense market is primarily driven by the need to modernize the country’s defense arsenal, and the Russia military aggression in Ukraine, which brought about the possibility of an armed conflict in the European region.

Reasons to Buy

– This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Croatian defense industry market trends for the coming five years

– The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

– Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

– A deep qualitative analysis of the Croatian defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts.

Elbit Systems
Northrop Grumman Corporation
Bell Helicopter

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Introduction 6

1.1. What is this Report About? 6

1.2. Definitions 6

1.3. Summary Methodology 8

1.4. About GlobalData 9

2. Executive Summary 10

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 11

3.1. Current Market Scenario 12

3.1.1. Military Fleet Size 12

3.1.2. Procurement Programs 18

3.1.3. Key Drivers and Challenges 19

3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 20

3.2.1. Croatia’s annual defense expenditure to reach US$915.6 million by 2023 20

3.2.2. Modernization and acquisition of military equipment and counter-terrorism to drive Croatia’s defense expenditure 22

3.2.3. The country’s defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to average

1.4% over the forecast period 23

3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 25

3.3.1. Capital expenditure’s share of total expenditure to increase considerably over the forecast period 25

3.3.2. Capital expenditure budget is expected to increase over the forecast period 27

3.3.3. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period 29

3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 31

3.4.1. Croatia’s homeland security budget is projected to increase at a CAGR of

4.30% over the forecast period 31

3.4.2. Organized crime forms the major component of homeland security expenditure 33

3.4.3. Croatia is at some risk from external and internal threats 34

3.4.4. Croatia faces a moderate threat from terrorist organizations 35

3.4.5. Croatia has a terrorism index score of

0.03 37

3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 38

3.5.1. Croatia’s defense expenditure is expected to increase at a CAGR of

5.13% over the forecast period 38

3.5.2. Croatia’s military expenditure is low when compared to countries with the largest defense expenditure 40

3.5.3. Croatia allocates a low percentage of GDP to defense 41

3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 42

3.6.1. Top 10 Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) – Projections over 2018-2023 42

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 43

4.1. Import Market Dynamics 44

4.1.1. The country’s current need to modernize its armed forces will drive defense imports 44

4.1.2. The US was the leading supplier of arms to Croatia during the historic period; a trend that is expected to continue over the forecast period 45

4.1.3. Aircraft accounted for the majority of defense imports during 2010-2014 46

4.2. Export Market Dynamics 47

4.2.1. Croatia does not export arms due to its under-developed domestic arms industry 47

5. Industry Dynamics 48

5.1. Market Regulation 48

5.1.1. Croatia has not disclosed any offset obligations 48

5.1.2. Regulations regarding foreign direct investment (FDI) in the defense sector have not been disclosed by the government 48

5.2. Market Entry Route 49

5.2.1. Budgeting process 49

5.2.2. Government-to-government agreements are the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs 51

6. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 52

6.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 52

6.1.1. Foreign suppliers manufacture defense systems overseas and deliver them to Croatia 52

7. Business Environment and Country Risk 53

7.1. Economic Performance 53

7.1.1. GDP Per Capita 53

7.1.2. GDP, Current Prices 54

7.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Million) 55

7.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion) 56

7.1.5. Local Currency Unit per US$ 57

7.1.6. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion) 58

7.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP) 59

7.1.8. Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP 60

7.1.9. Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP 61

7.1.10. Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP 62

7.1.11. Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP 63

7.1.12. Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion) 64

7.1.13. Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP 65

7.1.14. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output 66

8. Appendix 67

8.1. About GlobalData 67

8.2. Disclaimer 67

Table

List of Tables

Table 1: The Croatia Ground Forces Strength 12

Table 2: Croatia Air Force Strength 15

Table 3: Croatia Navy Strength 16

Table 4: Croatia – Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs (US$ Million) 18

Table 5: Croatia Defense Expenditure (KUNA Million and US$ Million), 2014-2023 20

Table 6: Croatia GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth (%), 2014-2023 23

Table 7: Croatia Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 25

Table 8: Croatia Defense Capital Expenditure (KUNA Million & US$ Million), 2014-2023 27

Table 9: Croatia Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 29

Table 10: Croatia Homeland Security Expenditure (KUNA Million and US$ Million), 2014-2023 31

Table 11: Terrorism Index, 2018 35

Table 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2014-2018 vs 2019-2023 38

Table 13: Top 10 Croatian Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million), 2018-2023 42

Table 14: Croatia Budget Formation Timetable 49

Table 15: Competitive Landscape of the Croatia Defense Industry 52

Figures

List of Figures

Figure 1: Croatia Defense Expenditure (KUNA Billion), 2014-2023 21

Figure 2: Croatia Defense Expenditure (US$ Million), 2014-2023 21

Figure 3: Croatia GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2013-2023 24

Figure 4: Croatia Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 26

Figure 5: Croatia Capital Budget Expenditure (KUNA Billion), 2014-2023 28

Figure 6: Croatia Capital Budget Allocation (US$ million), 2014-2023 28

Figure 7: Croatia Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 30

Figure 8: Croatia Homeland Security Budget (KUNA Billion), 2014-2023 32

Figure 9: Croatia Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 32

Figure 10: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018 34

Figure 11: Terrorism Index, 2018 37

Figure 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2014-2018 vs 2019-2023 39

Figure 13: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Million), 2018 and 2023 40

Figure 14: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018 41

Figure 15: Croatia Defense Import Trend (US$ Million), 2013-2017 (TIV Values) 44

Figure 16: Croatia Defense Imports by Country (%), 2013-2017 45

Figure 17: Croatia Defense Imports by Category (%), 2013-2017 46

Figure 18: Croatia Defense Export Trend (US$ Million), 2013-2017 (TIV Values) 47

Figure 19: Croatia GDP Per Capita (US$), 2015-2025 53

Figure 20: Croatia GDP, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015-2025 54

Figure 21: Croatia Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 55

Figure 22: Croatia Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 56

Figure 23: Local Currency per US$, 2015-2024 57

Figure 24: Croatia Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 58

Figure 25: Croatia Market capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP), 2005-2012 59

Figure 26: Croatia Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 60

Figure 27: Croatia Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 61

Figure 28: Croatia Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 62

Figure 29: Croatia Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 63

Figure 30: Croatia Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion), 2005-2013 64

Figure 31: Croatia Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 65

Figure 32: Croatia Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ Billion), 2005-2014 66

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