Future of the India Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

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Published: July 31, 2017 Report Code: GD-DF0426MR-ST

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The Future of Indian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022, published by Strategic Defense Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Synopsis

This report offers detailed analysis of Indian defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following –
– Indian defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of Indian defense industry during 2018-2022, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
– Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
– Porter’s Five Force analysis of Indian defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
– Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
– Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years
– Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of Indiann defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Scope

– India has a coastline, land frontier, island territories, airspace, and crucial offshore installations to defend against the various potential security threats. As a result, it is highly necessary for the Indian Armed Forces to be prepared to repel any external threat. The Indian Government is therefore continuously focusing on improving the country’s existing defense infrastructure. Only 30% of the defense needs are currently fulfilled by the domestic defense industry and the rest is imported from various countries of the world. The Indian Government has identified the need to build a strong and self-sustaining defense sector as a top priority. This has prompted the Indian MoD to consistently allocate an increasing share of its budget toward the defense sector, a trend that is expected to continue over the forecast period. Historic data shows that India invested US$187.8 billion in the defense sector during 2013-2017, and this is expected to increase to US$285.2 billion over 2018-2022.

– Historic data shows the average capital expenditure allocation of the total Indian defense budget was averaging 35.8%, and the allocation is expected to decline marginally during the forecast period to an average of 35.3%.

– The Indian MoD is expected to invest in submarines, multi-role aircrafts, corvettes, tanks, artillery guns, Multi Barrel Rocket Launchers (MBRL), helicopters, submarines, surface-to-air missiles, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and frigates among others.

Reasons to Buy

– This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of Indian defense industry market trends for the coming five years

– The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

– Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

– A deep qualitative analysis of Indian defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

Lockheed Martin Corporation
BAE Systems Plc.
Thales
Boeing
Mazagon Docks Limited
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)
Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL)
Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL)
Ordnance Factory Board
Bharat Earth Movers Limited (BEML)
Goa Shipyard Limited (GSL)

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Introduction 10

1.1. What is this Report About? 10

1.2. Definitions 10

1.3. Summary Methodology 12

1.4. About Strategic Defense Intelligence 13

2. Executive Summary 14

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 16

3.1. Current Market Scenario 17

3.1.1. Primary threat perception 17

3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy 19

3.1.3. Military Fleet Size 23

3.1.4. Procurement Programs 28

Ongoing procurement programs 28

Future procurement programs 31

3.1.5. Social, Political and Economic Environment & Support for Defense Projects 34

3.1.6. Political & Strategic Alliances 35

3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 37

3.2.1. Indian defense budget expected to be US$285.2 billion cumulatively over 2018-2022 37

3.2.2. Modernization initiatives, hostile neighbors, territorial disputes, and implementation of OROP and 7th Pay Commission will be the key growth drivers 39

3.2.3. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP will remain at an average of

1.6% over the forecast period 41

3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 42

3.3.1. Revenue expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period 42

3.3.2. Procurement of equipment is expected to pick up over the forecast period 44

3.3.3. Army continues to see the largest share of the defense budget 46

3.3.4. Defense ministry will spend US$152.6 billion on its army over the forecast period 47

3.3.5. Indian MoD projected to spend US$68.2 billion on its air force over the forecast period 49

3.3.6. Expenditure for the navy expected to grow at a CAGR of

9.85% during 2018-2022 51

3.3.7. Per capita defense expenditure is expected to increase over the forecast period 53

3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 54

3.4.1. India is projected to spend US$74.8 billion cumulatively on homeland security over the forecast period 54

3.4.2. Homeland security is expected to be driven by cross-border terrorism and domestic conflicts 57

3.4.3. India falls under “highly affected” of terrorism category 59

3.4.4. India faces high level of threat from foreign terrorist organizations 60

3.4.5. India has terrorism index score of

7.5 62

3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 63

3.5.1. India’s defense budget expected to grow at a CAGR of

10.49% 63

3.5.2. The US and China dominate the global defense industry 65

3.5.3. India allocates a lower share of its GDP to defense than other Asian countries 66

3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 67

3.6.1. Multi-role Aircraft 67

3.6.2. Missile Defense System 69

3.6.3. Infrastructure Construction 70

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 72

4.1. Import Market Dynamics 73

4.1.1. Indian defense imports slowly declining 73

4.1.2. Russia dominates Indian arms imports 74

4.1.3. Aircraft accounted for the majority of defense imports during 2012-2016 75

4.2. Export Market Dynamics 76

4.2.1. India’s low profile in defense exports is set to change over the forecast period 76

4.2.2. Underdeveloped nations across Asia and Africa are the main importers of Indian defense goods 77

4.2.3. Naval Vessels accounted for the majority of defense imports during 2012-2016 78

Industry Dynamics 79

4.3. Five Forces Analysis 79

4.3.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low to high 80

4.3.2. Bargaining power of buyer: high 81

4.3.3. Barrier to entry: medium to high 81

4.3.4. Intensity of rivalry: high 81

4.3.5. Threat of substitution: medium to high 82

5. Market Entry Strategy 83

5.1. Market Regulation 83

5.1.1. Defense Procurement Procedure (DPP) – 2016: A significant improvement 83

5.1.2. Offset policy to drive defense industrial modernization 83

5.1.3. Main features of revised Defense Procurement Procedure (DPP) – 2016 85

5.1.4. Private sectors permitted to produce arms and ammunition under the new Draft Arms and Ammunitions Manufacturing Policy (DAAM) 86

5.1.5. Foreign direct investment (FDI) increased to 49% in the Indian defense sector 86

5.2. Market Entry Route 88

5.2.1. Budgeting Process 88

5.2.2. Procurement Policy & Process 89

5.2.3. Foreign OEMs are forming joint ventures in order to enter the market 90

5.2.4. India emerges as a key outsourcing hub for global defense companies 92

5.3. Key Challenges 93

5.3.1. Offset policy is biased towards the domestic public and private sectors 93

5.3.2. Insufficient information and transparency on future plans 93

5.3.3. Bureaucracy, corruption, and long project delays 94

5.3.4. Developing advanced low-cost solutions is essential to gain market share 94

6. Competitive landscape and Strategic Insights 95

6.1. Competitive landscape Overview 95

6.1.1. Domestic public companies have a strong presence in the Indian defense industry 95

6.2. Key Foreign Companies 98

6.2.1. Lockheed Martin Corporation – overview 98

6.2.2. Lockheed Martin Corporation – main products 98

6.2.3. Lockheed Martin Corporation – recent announcements and strategic initiatives 99

6.2.4. Lockheed Martin Corporation – alliances 100

6.2.5. Lockheed Martin Corporation – recent contract wins 100

6.2.6. BAE Systems Plc. – overview 102

6.2.7. BAE Systems Plc. – main products 102

6.2.8. BAE Systems Plc. – recent announcements and strategic initiatives 103

6.2.9. BAE Systems Plc. – alliances 104

6.2.10. BAE Systems Plc. – recent contract wins 105

6.2.11. Thales – overview 106

6.2.12. Thales – main products 106

6.2.13. Thales – recent announcements and strategic initiatives 106

6.2.14. Thales – alliances 107

6.2.15. Thales – recent contract wins 108

6.2.16. Boeing – overview 109

6.2.17. Boeing – main products 109

6.2.18. Boeing – recent announcements and strategic initiatives 109

6.2.19. Boeing – alliances 110

6.2.20. Boeing – recent contract wins 110

6.3. Key Public Sector Companies 111

6.3.1. Mazagon Docks Limited – overview 111

6.3.2. Mazagon Docks Limited – main products 111

6.3.3. Mazagon Docks Limited – recent announcements and strategic initiatives 111

6.3.4. Mazagon Docks Limited – alliances 112

6.3.5. Mazagon Docks Limited – recent contract wins 112

6.3.6. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited – overview 113

6.3.7. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited – main products and services 113

6.3.8. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited – recent announcements and strategic initiatives 114

6.3.9. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited – alliances 115

6.3.10. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited – recent contract wins 116

6.3.11. Bharat Electronics Limited – overview 118

6.3.12. Bharat Electronics Limited – main products and services 118

6.3.13. Bharat Electronics Limited – recent announcements and strategic initiatives 119

6.3.14. Bharat Electronics Limited – alliances 120

6.3.15. Bharat Electronics Limited – recent contract wins 121

6.3.16. Bharat Electronics Limited – Financial analysis 122

6.3.17. Bharat Dynamics Limited – overview 124

6.3.18. Bharat Dynamics Limited – main products 124

6.3.19. Bharat Dynamics Limited – recent announcements and strategic initiatives 124

6.3.20. Bharat Dynamics Limited – alliances 125

6.3.21. Bharat Dynamics Limited – recent contract wins 125

6.3.22. Ordnance Factory Board – overview 126

6.3.23. Ordinance Factory Board – main products 126

6.3.24. Ordinance Factory Board – recent announcements and strategic initiatives 126

6.3.25. Ordinance Factory Board – alliances 127

6.3.26. Ordinance Factory Board – recent contract wins 127

6.3.27. BEML – overview 128

6.3.28. BEML – main products 128

6.3.29. BEML – recent announcements and strategic initiatives 129

6.3.30. BEML – alliances 130

6.3.31. Goa Shipyard Limited – overview 132

6.3.32. Goa Shipyard Limited – main products and services 132

6.3.33. Goa Shipyard Limited – recent announcements and strategic initiatives 133

6.3.34. Goa Shipyard Limited – alliances 133

6.3.35. Goa Shipyard Limited – recent contract wins 134

6.4. Key Private Sector Companies 135

6.4.1. Tata Advanced Systems Limited – overview 135

6.4.2. Tata Advanced Systems Limited – main products 135

6.4.3. Tata Advanced Systems Limited – recent announcements and strategic initiatives 135

6.4.4. Tata Advanced Systems Limited – alliances 136

6.4.5. Tata Advanced Systems Limited – recent contract wins 137

6.4.6. Mahindra Defense Systems – overview 138

6.4.7. Mahindra Defense Systems – main 138

6.4.8. Mahindra Defense Systems – recent announcements and strategic initiatives 138

6.4.9. Mahindra Defense Systems – alliances 139

7. Business Environment and Country Risk 141

7.1. Economic Performance 141

7.1.1. GDP Per Capita, US$ 141

7.1.2. GDP (current US$ Billion) 142

7.1.3. Exports of goods and services (current LCU Billion) 143

7.1.4. Imports of goods and services (current LCU Billion) 144

7.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion) 145

7.1.6. LCU per USD (period average) 146

7.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion) 147

7.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP) 148

7.1.9. Total Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU) 149

7.1.10. Goods exports as a percentage of GDP 150

7.1.11. Goods imports as a percentage of GDP 151

7.1.12. Services imports as a percentage of GDP 152

7.1.13. Services Exports as a percentage of GDP 153

7.1.14. Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ Bn) 154

7.1.15. Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP 155

7.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, and Utilities Output (US$ Bn) 156

8. Appendix 157

8.1. About SDI 157

8.2. Disclaimer 157

Table

List of Tables

Table 1: The Indian Army Strength 23

Table 2: Indian Navy Strength 24

Table 3: Indian Air Force Strength 26

Table 4: India – Ongoing Procurement Programs 28

Table 5: India – Future Procurement Programs 31

Table 6: Indian Defense Expenditure (INR Billion & US$ Billion), 2013-2022 37

Table 7: Indian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2013-2022 41

Table 8: Indian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2022 42

Table 9: Indian Capital Expenditure (INR billion & US$ billion), 2013-2022 44

Table 10: Indian Defense Budget Split (%), 2013-2022 46

Table 11: Indian Army Expenditure (INR billion & US$ billion), 2013-2022 47

Table 12: Indian Air Force Expenditure (INR billion & US$ billion), 2013-2022 49

Table 13: Indian Navy Expenditure (INR billion & US$ billion), 2013-2022 51

Table 14: Indian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2022 53

Table 15: Indian Homeland Security Budget (INR billion & US$ billion), 2013-2022 55

Table 16: Terrorism Index, 2017 60

Table 17: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022 63

Table 18: Offset Policy in India 84

Table 19: Indian Budget Formation Timetable: 88

Table 20: Market Entry Strategies and Key Objectives of Foreign Companies in the Indian Defense Sector 90

Table 21: Key Players and their Operations in the Indian Defense Industry 92

Table 22: Scale of Operations of Domestic Public &Private Sector Companies in the Indian Defense Industry 95

Table 23: Lockheed Martin Corporation – Main Products 98

Table 24: Lockheed Martin Corporation – Alliances 100

Table 25: Lockheed Martin Corporation – Recent Contract Wins 100

Table 26: BAE Systems Plc. – Main Products 102

Table 27: BAE Systems Plc. – Alliances 104

Table 28: BAE Systems Plc. – Recent Contract Wins 105

Table 29: Thales – Main Products 106

Table 30: Thales – Alliances 107

Table 31: Thales – Recent Contract Wins 108

Table 32: Boeing – Main Products 109

Table 33: Boeing – Alliances 110

Table 34: Boeing – Recent Contract Wins 110

Table 35: Mazagon Docks Limited – Main Products 111

Table 36: Mazagon Docks Limited – Alliances 112

Table 37: Mazagon Docks Limited – Recent Contract Wins 112

Table 38: Hindustan Aeronautics Limited – Main Products and Services 113

Table 39: Hindustan Aeronautics Limited – Alliances 115

Table 40: Hindustan Aeronautics Limited – Recent Contract Wins 116

Table 41: Bharat Electronics Limited – Major Products and Services 118

Table 42: Bharat Electronics Limited – Alliances 120

Table 43: Bharat Electronics Limited – Recent Contract Wins 121

Table 44: Bharat Dynamics Limited – Main Products 124

Table 45: Bharat Dynamics Limited – Alliances 125

Table 46: Bharat Dynamics Limited – Recent Contract Wins 125

Table 47: Ordinance Factory Board – Main Products 126

Table 48: Ordinance Factory Board – Alliances 127

Table 49: Ordinance Factory Board – Recent Contract Wins 127

Table 50: BEML – Main Products 128

Table 51: BEML – Alliances 130

Table 52: Goa Shipyard Limited – Main Products and Services 132

Table 53: Goa Shipyard Limited – Alliances 133

Table 54: Goa Shipyard Limited – Recent Contract Wins 134

Table 55: Tata Advanced Systems Limited – Main Products 135

Table 56: Tata Advanced Systems Limited – Alliances 136

Table 57: Tata Advanced Systems Limited – Recent Contract Wins 137

Table 58: Mahindra Defense Systems – Main Products 138

Table 59: Mahindra Defense Systems – Alliances 139

Figures

List of Figures

Figure 1: Indian Defense Expenditure (INR Billion), 2013-2022 38

Figure 2: Indian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 38

Figure 3: Indian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2013-2022 41

Figure 4:Indian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),2013-2022 43

Figure 5: Indian Capital Expenditure (INR billion), 2013-2022 45

Figure 6: Indian Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2013-2022 45

Figure 7: Indian Defense Budget Split (%), 2013-2022 46

Figure 8: Indian Defense Expenditure for the army (INR Billion), 2013-2022 48

Figure 9: Indian Defense Expenditure for the army (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 48

Figure 10: Indian Defense Expenditure for the air force (INR Billion), 2013-2022 50

Figure 11: Indian Defense Expenditure for the air force (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 50

Figure 12: Indian Defense Expenditure for the Navy (INR Billion), 2013-2022 52

Figure 13: Indian Defense Expenditure for the Navy (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 52

Figure 14: Indian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2022 53

Figure 15: Indian Homeland Security Budget (INR billion), 2013-2022 55

Figure 16: Indian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2013-2022 56

Figure 17: Terrorism Heat Map, 2017 59

Figure 18: Terrorism Index 62

Figure 19: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022 64

Figure 20: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2017 and 2022 65

Figure 21: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2017 66

Figure 22: Multi-role Aircraft Market Size (US$ Billion), 2017-2027 68

Figure 23: Missile Defense System Market Size (US$ Billion), 2017-2027 69

Figure 24: Infrastructure Construction Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2027 71

Figure 25: Indian Defense Import Trend (US$ Million), 2012-2016 (TIV values*) 73

Figure 26: Country-wise Break-up of Indian Defense Imports (%), 2012-2016 (TIV values*) 74

Figure 27: Weapon Category Break-up of Indian Defense Imports (%), 2012-2016 (TIV values*) 75

Figure 28: Indian Defense Export Trend (US$ Million), 2012-2016 (TIV values*) 76

Figure 29: Country-wise Break-up of Indian Defense Exports (%), 2012-2016 (TIV values*) 77

Figure 30: Weapon Category Break-up of Indian Defense Exports (%), 2012-2016 (TIV values*) 78

Figure 31: Industry Dynamics – Porter’s Five Forces Analysis 79

Figure 32: Bharat Electronics Limited – Revenue Trend Analysis (INR Billion), 2012-2016 122

Figure 33: Bharat Electronics Limited – Operating Profit Trend Analysis (INR Billion), 2012-2016 123

Figure 34: Bharat Electronics Limited – Net Profit Trend Analysis (INR Billion), 2012-2016 123

Figure 35: GDP Per Capita in US$, 2015-2025 141

Figure 36: GDP (current US$ billion), 2015-2025 142

Figure 37: Exports of goods and services (current LCU Billion), 2005-2014 143

Figure 38: Imports of goods and services (current LCU Billion), 2005-2014 144

Figure 39: Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 145

Figure 40: LCU per USD (period average), 2015-2024 146

Figure 41: Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Bn) , 2005-2012 147

Figure 42: Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP),2005-2012 148

Figure 43: Total Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP (LCU), 2005-2012 149

Figure 44: Goods exports as a percentage of GDP,2005-2014 150

Figure 45: Goods imports as a percentage of GDP,2005-2014 151

Figure 46: Service imports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 152

Figure 47: Services exports as a percentage of GDP,2005-2014 153

Figure 48: Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ Bn), 2005-2014 154

Figure 49: Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP, 2005-2014 155

Figure 50: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ Bn), 2005-2014 156

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