Future of the Lebanese Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021

1 Introduction

1.1. What is this Report About?

1.2. Definitions

1.3. Summary Methodology

1.4. SDI Terrorism Index

1.5. About Strategic Defense Intelligence

2 Executive Summary

3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities

3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast

3.1.1. Defense expenditure expected to grow at a CAGR of

6.63% over the forecast period

3.1.2. Cross border violence expected to be a key factor driving defense expenditure

3.1.3. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP expected to increase during the forecast period

3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation

3.2.1. Capital expenditure allocation to average

33.1% of the total budget over the forecast period

3.2.2. Capital expenditure to resister a CAGR of

6.71% during the forecast period

3.2.3. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period

3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast

3.3.1. Homeland security budget expected to increase over the forecast period

3.3.2. Sectarian violence and drug trafficking will be the key factors driving homeland security

3.3.3. Lebanon considered in the 'highly affected' category in terms of terrorist attack

3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets

3.4.1. Lebanon to remain at the bottom of the Top defense spenders list

3.4.2. The country's defense budget is low compared to other Middle Eastern countries

3.4.3. Lebanon trails its neighbors in terms of defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP

3.4.4. Lebanon is one of the countries highly affected by terror attacks

3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers

3.5.1. Demand for military helicopters to increase

3.5.2. Anti-tank missiles expected to be in demand

3.5.3. Defense and logistics systems to be enhanced to enable informed actions against any attack

4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics

4.1. Import Market Dynamics

4.1.1. Defense industry heavily relies on imports from foreign countries

4.1.2. The US and Jordan were the key defense suppliers to Lebanon

4.1.3. Artillery and armored vehicles dominated Lebanese defense imports during the historic period

4.2. Export Market Dynamics

4.2.1. Lebanon's defense export market is negligible

5 Industry Dynamics

5.1. Five Forces Analysis

5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: high

5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: low

5.1.3. Barrier to entry: high

5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low

5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low

6 Market Entry Strategy

6.1. Market Regulation

6.1.1. The Lebanese Government prohibits FDI in the defense industry

6.1.2. Lebanon does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country

6.2. Market Entry Route

6.2.1. Government-to-government deals are the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs

6.3. Key Challenges

6.3.1. Small defense budget does not attract investors and suppliers

6.3.2. Restrictions on weapon sales and UN arms embargo

7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights

7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview

7.1.1. Lebanese defense sector is dominated by foreign competitors

7.2. Key Foreign Companies

7.2.1. Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc.: overview

7.2.2. Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc.: products and services

7.2.3. Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc.: recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.2.4. Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc.: recent contract wins

7.2.5. MBDA: Overview

7.2.6. MBDA: Major Products and Services

7.2.7. MBDA: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives

7.2.8. MBDA: Alliances

8 Business Environment and Country Risk

8.1. Economic Performance

8.1.1. GDP per Capita

8.1.2. Gross Domestic Product

8.1.3. National Disposal Income (US$ Bn)

8.1.4. Exports of Goods and Services

8.1.5. Imports of Goods and Services

8.1.6. LCU per USD (period average)

8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies

8.1.8. Market Capitalization of listed companies as a % GDP

8.1.9. Total Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP

8.1.10. Goods Exports as a % of GDP

8.1.11. Goods Imports as a % of GDP

8.1.12. Services Imports as a % of GDP

8.1.13. Services Exports as a % of GDP

8.1.15. Net Foreign Direct Investment

8.1.16. Net Foreign Direct Investment as % of GDP

8.2. Minerals

8.2.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output

9 Appendix

9.1. About SDI

9.2. Disclaimer

Table 1: Lebanese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2012-2016

Table 2: Lebanese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2017-2021

Table 3: Lebanese Defense Expenditure (LBP Billion), 2012-2016

Table 4: Lebanese Defense Expenditure (LBP Billion), 2017-2021

Table 5: Lebanese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2012-2016

Table 6: Lebanese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2017-2021

Table 7: Lebanese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2012-2016

Table 8: Lebanese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2017-2021

Table 9: Lebanese Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2012-2016

Table 10: Lebanese Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2017-2021

Table 11: Lebanese Defense Capital Expenditure (LBP Billion), 2012-2016

Table 12: Lebanese Defense Capital Expenditure (LBP Billion), 2017-2021

Table 13: Lebanese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2012-2016

Table 14: Lebanese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2017-2021

Table 15: Lebanese Homeland Security Budget (US$ Million), 2012-2016

Table 16: Lebanese Homeland Security Budget (US$ Million), 2017-2021

Table 17: Lebanese Homeland Security Budget (LBP Billion), 2012-2016

Table 18: Lebanese Homeland Security Budget (LBP Billion), 2017-2021

Table 19: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2012-2016 vs. 2017-2021

Table 20: Terrorism Index

Table 21: Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc. – Product Focus

Table 22: Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc. – Recent Contract Wins

Table 23: MBDA – Major Products & Services

Table 24: MBDA – Alliances

Figure 1: Lebanese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2012-2016

Figure 2: Lebanese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2017-2021

Figure 3: Lebanese Defense Expenditure (LBP Billion), 2012-2016

Figure 4: Lebanese Defense Expenditure (LBP Billion), 2017-2021

Figure 5: Lebanese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditures Percentage of GDP Growth, 2012-2016

Figure 6: Lebanese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2017-2021

Figure 7: Lebanese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2012-2016

Figure 8: Lebanese Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2017-2021

Figure 9: Lebanese Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2012-2016

Figure 10: Lebanese Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2017-2021

Figure 11: Lebanese Defense Capital Expenditure (LBP Billion), 2012-2016

Figure 12: Lebanese Defense Capital Expenditure (LBP Billion), 2017-2021

Figure 13: Lebanese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2012-2016

Figure 14: Lebanese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2017-2021

Figure 15: Lebanese Homeland Security Budget (US$ Million), 2012-2016

Figure 16: Lebanese Homeland Security Budget (US$ Million), 2017-2021

Figure 17: Lebanese Homeland Security Budget (LBP Billion), 2012-2016

Figure 18: Lebanese Homeland Security Budget (LBP Billion), 2017-2021

Figure 19: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2016

Figure 20: SDI Terrorism Index, 2016

Figure 21: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2012-2016 vs. 2017-2021

Figure 22: Benchmarking with World's Largest Defense Spenders (US$ Billion), 2016 and 2021

Figure 23: Benchmarking with Large Defense Spenders as % of GDP-2016

Figure 24: Military Helicopters Market Size (US$ Million), 2016-2026

Figure 25: Anti-tank Missiles Market Size (US$ Million), 2016-2026

Figure 26: Lebanese Defense Import Trend, 2011-2015 (TIV values)

Figure 27: Lebanese Defense Imports by Country (%), 2011-2015

Figure 28: Lebanese Defense Imports by Weapon Category (%), 2011-2015

Figure 29: Industry Dynamics – Porter's Five Forces Analysis

Figure 30: Lebanese GDP per Capita (US$), 2016-2025

Figure 31: Lebanese GDP (current US$ bn), 2015-2024

Figure 32: National Disposable Income (US$ bn), 2001-2010

Figure 33: Lebanese Exports of Goods and Services (current US$ Bn), 2005-2014

Figure 34: Lebanese Imports of Goods and Services (current US$ Bn), 2005-2014

Figure 35: Lebanese LCU per USD, 2016-2025

Figure 36: Lebanese Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Bn), 2003-2012

Figure 37: Lebanese Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (%of GDP), 2003-2012

Figure 38: Lebanese Total Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP, 2003-2012

Figure 39: Lebanese Goods Exports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013

Figure 40: Lebanese Goods Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013

Figure 41: Lebanese Services Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013

Figure 42: Lebanese Services Exports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013

Figure 43: Lebanese Net Foreign Direct Investment (US$ Bn), 2005-2013

Figure 44: Lebanese Net Foreign Direct Investment as % of GDP, 2002-2011

Figure 45: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (in Millions), 2003-2012