Nigeria Defense Market – Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecast to 2024

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Published: March 29, 2019 Report Code: GDDF0554MR-ST

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"Future of the Nigerian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024", published by GlobalData, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

The defense budget of Nigeria was US$1.6 billion in 2019 and registered a negative CAGR of 3.50% during the historical period. The country has been facing internal conflicts affecting its economic growth and stability. . Efforts are being taken to bolster peacekeeping operations and counter oil smuggling and piracy. These measures are also expected to drive the country’s military expenditure over the forecast period. The country’s military expenditure is expected to increase at a CAGR of 6.55% to reach US$2.2 billion by 2024.

This report offers detailed analysis of the Nigerian defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

Scope

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following –

– The defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Nigerian defense industry during 2020-2024, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns

– Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

– Porter’s Five Force analysis of the Nigerian defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

– Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years

– Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities

– Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Nigerian defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.

Reasons to Buy

– This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Nigerian defense industry market trends for the coming five years

– The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

– Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

– A deep qualitative analysis of the Nigerian defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts.

Defense Industries Corporation of Nigeria
Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Introduction

1.1. What is this Report About?

1.2. Definitions

1.3. Summary Methodology

1.4. About GlobalData

2. Executive Summary

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities

3.1. Current Market Scenario

3.1.1. Primary Threat Perception

3.1.2. Military Doctrine and Strategy

3.1.3. Nigerian Military Equipment

3.1.4. Procurement Programs

3.1.4.1. Ongoing Procurement Programs

3.1.4.2. Future Procurement Programs

3.1.4.3. Top Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million) 2019-2024

3.1.5. Social, Political, and Economic Environment and Support for Defense Projects

3.1.6. Political and Strategic Alliances

3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast

3.2.1. Nigerian Defense Budget to Grow at a CAGR of

6.55%

3.2.2. Insurgency, Piracy, Oil Smuggling, and Peacekeeping Operations are Expected to Drive Defense Expenditure

3.2.3. Defense Budget as a Percentage of GDP to Average

0.26% over the Forecast Period

3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation

3.3.1. Share of Capital Expenditure will Slightly Increase over the Forecast Period

3.3.2. Capital Expenditure is Anticipated to Record a CAGR of

6.42% during Forecast Period

3.3.3. Armed Forces Account for Most of the Defense Budget

3.3.4. Army Defense Expenditure to Reach US$0.9 Billion in 2024

3.3.5. Per Capita Defense Expenditure to Rise over the Forecast Period

3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast

3.4.1. Homeland Security Budget Projected to Increase over the Forecast Period

3.4.2. The Threat from Boko Haram, Drug Trafficking, Cybercrime, and Money Laundering are Expected to Drive the Homeland Security Budget

3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets

3.5.1. Nigerian Defense Budget Expected to Increase over the Forecast Period

3.5.2. Nigerian Military Expenditure is Limited Compared to the Countries with the Highest Global Defense Expenditure

3.5.3. The Country Allocates a Lower Percentage of GDP to Defense than Other African Countries

3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers

3.6.1. Top 10 Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) – Projections over 2019-2024

3.6.2. Multi-role Aircraft

3.6.3. Airborne C4ISR

3.6.4. Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) – Physical Security

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics

4.1. Import Market Dynamics

4.1.1. Limited Domestic Defense Capabilities to Drive the Country’s Defense Imports

4.1.2. Russia, China and the US Accounts for the Majority of the Country’s Defense Imports

4.1.3. Aircraft and Naval Vessels Accounted for

73.6% of Defense Imports

4.2. Export Market Dynamics

4.2.1. Nigeria Does not Export Arms due to its Underdeveloped Domestic Arms Industry

5. Industry Dynamics

5.1. Five Forces Analysis

5.1.1. Bargaining Power of Suppliers: Medium to High

5.1.2. Bargaining Power of Buyers: Low to Medium

5.1.3. Barrier to Entry: Medium

5.1.4. Intensity of Rivalry: Low

5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: Low

6. Market Entry Strategy

6.1. Market Regulation

6.1.1. Nigeria Does not Disclose any Offset Obligations Imposed by the Country

6.1.2. FDI in the Defense Sector is Prohibited by the Nigerian Government

6.2. Market Entry Route

6.2.1. Budgeting Process

6.2.2. Defense Procurement Process

6.2.3. Direct Selling is the Preferred Market Entry Route for Foreign OEMs

6.3. Key Challenges

6.3.1. Corruption Acts as an Obstacle for Market Entry

6.3.2. Small Defense Budget Discourages Major Suppliers

6.3.3. Unorganized, Mismanaged Industry Jeopardizes the Development of the Domestic Industry

7. Competitive landscape and Strategic Insights

7.1. Competitive landscape Overview

7.2. Nigeria Market Share Analysis, 2018-2024

7.3. Key Companies

7.3.1. Defense Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Overview

7.3.2. Defense Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Products and Services

7.3.3. Defense Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives

7.3.4. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Alliances

7.3.5. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Recent Contract Awards

7.3.6. Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: Overview

7.3.7. Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: Products and Services

7.3.8. Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives

8. Business Environment and Country Risk

8.1. Economic Performance

8.1.1. Gross Domestic per Capita

8.1.2. Gross Domestic Product, Current (US$)

8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services

8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services

8.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion)

8.1.6. Local Currency Unit per US$

8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion)

8.1.8. Market capitalization of Listed Companies (% GDP)

8.1.9. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP (LCU)

8.1.10. Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP

8.1.11. Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP

8.1.12. Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP

8.1.13. Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP

8.1.14. Net Foreign Direct Investment

8.1.15. Net FDI as a Percentage of GDP

8.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion)

9. Appendix

9.1. About GlobalData

9.2. Disclaimer

Table

List of Tables

Table 1: Nigerian Army Strength

Table 2: Nigerian Navy Strength

Table 3: Nigerian Air Force Strength

Table 4: Nigerian – Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs (US$ Million), 2015-2019

Table 5: Nigerian – Future Procurement Programs

Table 6: Nigerian – Top Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million), 2019-2024

Table 7: Nigerian Military Training Exercises

Table 8: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (NGN billion and US$ billion), 2015-2024

Table 9: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2015-2024

Table 10: Nigerian Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015-2024

Table 11: Nigerian Defense Capital Expenditure (NGN Billion and US$ Billion), 2015-2024

Table 12: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Others, 2015-2024

Table 13: Nigeria Defense Budget Split Between Military Services (Army, Air Force, Navy and Others), 2015-2024

Table 14: Nigeria Defense Budget Split Between Military Services (Army, Air Force, Navy and Others), 2015-2024

Table 15: Nigerian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015-2024

Table 16: Nigerian Homeland Security Expenditure (NGN Billion and US$ billion), 2015-2024

Table 17: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2015-2019 vs. 2020-2024

Table 18: Top Nigerian Defense Sectors by Value (US$ Million), 2019-2024

Table 19: Competitive Landscape of the Nigeria Defense Industry

Table 20: Top Defense Suppliers in Nigerian Defense Industry by Value (US$ Million), 2018-2024

Table 21: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria – Main Products

Table 22: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Alliances

Table 23: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Recent Contract Awards

Table 24: Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited – Main Products

Figures

List of Figures

Figure 1: Nigerian Defense Budget: 2020 and 2024

Figure 2: Nigerian Defense Imports: 2013 and 2017

Figure 3: Nigerian Top Five Prospective Procurements/Developments

Figure 4: Nigerian National Security Threats

Figure 5: Nigerian Partnering Countries for Defense Cooperation and Military Training

Figure 6: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (NGN Billion), 2015-2024

Figure 7: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in US$ Billion), 2015-2024

Figure 8: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2015-2024

Figure 9: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015-2024

Figure 10: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (NGN Billion), 2015-2024

Figure 11: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2015-2024

Figure 12: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between the Army, Air Force, Navy and Others, 2015-2024

Figure 13: Nigerian Defense Budget in NGN Billion – Breakdown by Services (Army, Air Force, Navy and Others), 2015-2024

Figure 14: Nigerian Defense Budget in US$ Billion – Breakdown by Services (Army, Air Force, Navy and Others), 2015-2024

Figure 15: Nigerian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015-2024

Figure 16: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (NGN billion), 2015-2024

Figure 17: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2015-2024

Figure 18: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2015-2019 vs. 2020-2024

Figure 19: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2019 and 2024

Figure 20: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2019

Figure 21: Nigerian – Multi-Role Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2019-2024

Figure 22: Nigerian – Airborne C4ISR Market Size (US$ Million), 2019-2024

Figure 23: Nigerian, Physical Security, Critical Infrastructure Protection, Market Size (US$ Million), 2019-2024

Figure 24: Nigerian, Defense Imports (US$ Million), 2013-2017 (TIV Values*)

Figure 25: Nigerian, Defense Imports by Country (%), 2013-2017

Figure 26: Nigerian Defense Imports by Category (%), 2013-2017

Figure 27: Industry Dynamics Porter’s Five Forces Analysis

Figure 28: Nigeria Budgeting Process

Figure 29: Key Challenges in Nigerian Defense Market

Figure 30: Nigerian Market Share Analysis, 2018-2024

Figure 31: Nigeria’s GDP per Capita (US$), 2015-2025

Figure 32: Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (Current US$ Billion), 2015-2025

Figure 33: Nigeria’s Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014

Figure 34: Nigeria’s Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014

Figure 35: Nigeria’s Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005-2013

Figure 36: Nigeria’s LCU per US$, 2015-2024

Figure 37: Nigeria’s Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012

Figure 38: Nigeria’s Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% GDP), 2005-2012

Figure 39: Nigerian Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP (LCU), 2005-2012

Figure 40: Nigeria’s Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012

Figure 41: Nigeria’s Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012

Figure 42: Nigeria’s Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012

Figure 43: Nigeria’s Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2002-2012

Figure 44: Nigeria’s Net Foreign Direct Investment (BoP, Current US$ Billion), 2005-2012

Figure 45: Nigeria’s Net FDI as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012

Figure 46: Nigeria’s Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005-2014

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