Future of the Polish Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape, and Forecasts to 2022

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Published: March 30, 2017 Report Code: GD-DF0409MR-ST

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The Future of the Polish Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022, published by Strategic Defense Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

This report offers detailed analysis of the Polish defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.
In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following –
– The Polish defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Polish defense industry during 2018-2022, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
– Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
– Porter’s Five Force analysis of the Polish defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
– Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
– Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years
– Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Polish defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Scope

– With one of the fastest growing markets and a high-income economy, Poland aims to accelerate the modernization rate of its Armed Forces in the coming years. While most European countries have reduced their military spending between 2013 and 2017, Poland has increased its expenditure on armed forces at a CAGR of 4.66% in terms of local currency, making it one of the largest in Central Europe. However, in terms of US$, Polish defense expenditure declined marginally at a CAGR of -1.85%, which is attributed to the fall in exchange rates.

– Poland’s defense industry is the largest in Central Europe. During the forecast period, the country is expected to spend an estimated US$53.5 billion on strengthening its defense forces, primarily due to the modernization initiatives implemented by the Polish Ministry of National Defense (MoND). Furthermore, the country’s defense expenditure will be driven by a combination of factors including the ongoing turmoil in the neighboring country of Ukraine and an increased involvement in NATO and UN peacekeeping missions. Defense expenditure amounted to an average of 1.9% of overall GDP over 2013-2017, and is expected to marginally decline at 1.8% of the GDP over next five years.

– The MoD is expected to invest in Missile Defense Systems, Multi-Mission Helicopters, Submarines and Corvettes

Reasons to Buy

– This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Polish defense industry market trends for the coming five years

– The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

– Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

– A deep qualitative analysis of the Polish defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

BAE Systems
The Boeing Company
Lockheed Martin Corporation
CAE
Sikorsky(a subsidiary of Lockheed Martin)
Alenia Aermacchi
Polish Defense Holding (PHO)
Polskie Zakłady Lotnicze Mielec (PZL Mielec)
Wojskowe Zakłady Uzbrojenia SA (WZU)
Huta Stalowa Wola SA (HSW) and ROSOMAK S.A.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Introduction 9

1.1. What is this Report About? 9

1.2. Definitions 9

1.3. Summary Methodology 11

1.4. About Strategic Defense Intelligence 13

2. Executive Summary 14

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 16

3.1. Current Market Scenario 17

3.1.1. Primary threat perception 17

3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy 18

3.1.3. Military Fleet Size 20

3.1.4. Procurement Programs 23

3.1.5. Ongoing procurement programs 23

3.1.6. Future procurement programs 24

3.1.7. Social, Political and Economic Environment & Support for Defense Projects 25

3.1.8. Political & Strategic Alliances 26

3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 27

3.2.1. Polish defense expenditure is expected to reach US$11.9 billion by 2022 27

3.2.2. Ukrainian crisis, military modernization initiatives and peacekeeping missions to fuel defense expenditure over the forecast period 30

3.2.3. Polish defense budget to be at

1.8% of GDP over 2018-2022 32

3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 34

3.3.1. Capital expenditure allocation expected to increase during the forecast period 34

3.3.2. Capital expenditure to increase at a CAGR of

6.58% over 2018-2022 36

3.3.3. The majority of the defense budget is allocated to military intelligence services and crisis response operations, which are anticipated to increase over the forecast period 39

3.3.4. Poland to invest US$5.2 billion on its land forces during the forecast period 41

3.3.5. Air force budget to grow at a CAGR of

11.61% during the forecast period 44

3.3.6. Naval expenditure expected to grow at a CAGR of

16.81% over the forecast period 47

3.3.7. A major portion of Poland’s defense budget to be allocated to the Other category 49

3.3.8. Per capita defense expenditure is expected to increase during the forecast period 51

3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 53

3.4.1. Polish homeland security market to increase at a CAGR of

1.70% over the forecast period 53

3.4.2. Homeland security expenditure to be triggered by the country’s efforts to counter drug smuggling, human trafficking, and cyber attacks 55

3.4.3. Poland faces no known threat from terrorist organizations 57

3.4.4. Poland faces low level of threat from foreign terrorist organizations 58

3.4.5. Poland has a terrorism index score of “0.0” 60

3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 61

3.5.1. Poland’s defense growth rate is expected to remain modest over the forecast period 61

3.5.2. Poland’s defense spending is low compared to other European nations 63

3.5.3. Poland allocates a moderate share of GDP for defense expenditure 64

3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 65

3.6.1. Missile Defense System 65

3.6.2. Multi-mission Helicopter 66

3.6.3. Submarine 67

3.6.4. Corvettes 68

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 69

4.1. Import Dynamics 70

4.1.1. Defense imports fluctuated during the period 2012-2016 70

4.1.2. Poland sourced the majority of its arms imports from Finland 71

4.1.3. Missiles and armored vehicles are the major military hardware imports 72

4.2. Export Market Dynamics 73

4.2.1. Polish defense exports expected to increase over the forecast period 73

4.2.2. Poland exports the majority of its defense goods to the US 74

4.2.3. Aircraft and armored vehicles constitute the majority of Polish defense exports 75

5. Industry Dynamics 76

5.1. Five Forces Analysis 76

5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low 77

5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: high 77

5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium 77

5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: high 77

5.1.5. Threat of substitution: high 78

6. Market Entry Strategy 79

6.1. Market Regulation 79

6.1.1. Polish government introduces new Offset Act for defense equipment procurements 79

6.2. Market Entry Route 80

6.2.1. Budgeting Process 80

6.2.2. Procurement Policy & Process 82

6.2.3. Joint ventures and acquisitions of domestic companies are the preferred entry routes 83

6.2.4. Foreign OEMs gain industry access through joint research and development programs 84

6.3. Key Challenges 85

6.3.1. Dominance of EU defense companies impede the progress of non-European firms 85

6.3.2. Lack of transparency in the public procurement process proves a major challenge 85

7. Competitive landscape and Strategic Insights 86

7.1. Competitive landscape Overview 86

7.2. Key Foreign Companies 88

7.2.1. BAE Systems: overview 88

7.2.2. BAE Systems: main products and services 88

7.2.3. BAE Systems: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 88

7.2.4. BAE Systems: alliances 90

7.2.5. BAE Systems: recent contract wins 90

7.2.6. The Boeing Company: overview 91

7.2.7. The Boeing Company: main products and services 91

7.2.8. The Boeing Company: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 91

7.2.9. The Boeing Company: alliances 92

7.2.10. Lockheed Martin: overview 93

7.2.11. Lockheed Martin: main products and services 93

7.2.12. Lockheed Martin: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 93

7.2.13. Lockheed Martin: alliances 94

7.2.14. Lockheed Martin: recent contract wins 94

7.2.15. CAE: overview 95

7.2.16. CAE: main products and services 95

7.2.17. CAE: recent contract wins 95

7.2.18. Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: overview 96

7.2.19. Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation: main products and services 96

7.2.20. Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 96

7.2.21. Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: alliances 97

7.2.22. Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: recent contract wins 97

7.2.23. Alenia Aermacchi: overview 98

7.2.24. Alenia Aermacchi: main products and services 98

7.2.25. Alenia Aermacchi: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 98

7.2.26. Alenia Aermacchi: alliances 99

7.2.27. Alenia Aermacchi: recent contract wins 99

7.3. Key Public Companies 100

7.3.1. Polish Defense Holding: overview 100

7.3.2. Polish Defense Holding: main products 100

7.3.3. Polish Defense Holding: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 102

7.3.4. Polish Defense Holding: alliances 102

7.3.5. Polish Defense Holding: recent contract wins 104

7.3.6. PZL Mielec: overview 105

7.3.7. PZL Mielec: products 105

7.3.8. PZL Mielec: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 105

7.3.9. PZL Mielec: alliances 106

7.3.10. PZL Mielec: recent contract wins 106

7.3.11. Wojskowe Zakłady Uzbrojenia SA: overview 107

7.3.12. Wojskowe Zakłady Uzbrojenia SA: main products and services 107

7.3.13. Wojskowe Zakłady Uzbrojenia SA: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 108

7.3.14. Wojskowe Zakłady Uzbrojenia SA: alliances 108

7.3.15. Huta Stalowa Wola: overview 109

7.3.16. Huta Stalowa Wola: main products and services 109

7.3.17. Huta Stalowa Wola: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 109

7.3.18. Huta Stalowa Wola: alliances 110

7.3.19. Huta Stalowa Wola: recent contract wins 110

7.3.20. ROSOMAK S.A.: overview 111

7.3.21. ROSOMAK S.A.: main products and services 111

7.3.22. ROSOMAK S.A.: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 111

7.3.23. ROSOMAK S.A.: recent contract wins 112

8. Business Environment and Country Risk 113

8.1. Economic Performance 113

8.1.1. GDP Per Capita 113

8.1.2. GDP, Current Prices 114

8.1.3. Exports of goods and services, current prices 115

8.1.4. Imports of goods and services, current prices 116

8.1.5. Gross National disposable income (USD Billion) 117

8.1.6. Local Currency Unit per US Dollar 118

8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies 119

8.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies a percentage of GDP 120

8.1.9. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a percentage of GDP 121

8.1.10. Goods exports as a percentage of GDP 122

8.1.11. Goods imports as a percentage of GDP 123

8.1.12. Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as a percentage of GDP 124

8.1.13. Service Imports as a percentage of GDP 125

8.1.14. Service Exports as a percentage of GDP 126

8.1.15. Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ Bn) 127

8.1.16. Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP 128

8.1.17. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion) 129

9. Appendix 130

9.1. About SDI 130

9.2. Disclaimer 130

Table

List of Tables

Table 1: Polish Land Forces Strength 20

Table 2: Polish Navy Strength 21

Table 3: Polish Air Force Strength 22

Table 4: Polish Ongoing Procurement Programs 23

Table 5: Polish Future Procurement Programs 24

Table 6: Polish Defense Expenditure (PLN billion & US$ billion), 2013-2022 28

Table 7: Polish GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2013-2022 32

Table 8: Polish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),2013-2022 34

Table 9: Polish Defense Capital Expenditure (PLN Billion & US$ Billion), 2013-2022 37

Table 10: Polish Defense Expenditure Allocation (% Share), 2013-2022 39

Table 11: Polish Defense Expenditure for Army (PLN Billion & US$ Million), 2013-2022 42

Table 12: Polish Defense Expenditure for Air Force (PLN Billion & US$ Million), 2013-2022 45

Table 13: Polish Defense Expenditure for Navy (PLN Billion & US$ Million), 2013-2022 47

Table 14: Polish Defense Expenditure for Other Categories (PLN Billion & US$ Billion), 2013-2022 49

Table 15: Polish Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2022 51

Table 16: Polish Homeland Security Expenditure (PLN Billion & US$ Billion), 2013-2022 53

Table 17: Terrorism Index, 2017 58

Table 18: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022 61

Table 19: Polish Budget Formation Timetable: 80

Table 20: Market Entry Strategies by Key Foreign Companies 83

Table 21: Competitive Landscape of the Polish Defense Industry 86

Table 22: BAE Systems, Main Products 88

Table 23: BAE Systems, Alliances 90

Table 24: BAE Systems – Recent Contract Wins 90

Table 25: The Boeing Company, Main Products 91

Table 26: The Boeing Company, Alliances 92

Table 27: Lockheed Martin, Main Products 93

Table 28: Lockheed Martin, Alliances 94

Table 29: Lockheed Martin, Recent Contract Wins 94

Table 30: CAE, Main Products and Services 95

Table 31: CAE, recent contract wins 95

Table 32: Sikorsky, a Lockheed martin Company Main Products and Services 96

Table 33: Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company Alliances 97

Table 34:Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: recent contract wins 97

Table 35: Alenia Aermacchi, Main Products and Services 98

Table 36: Alenia Aermacchi, Alliances 99

Table 37: Alenia Aermacchi, Recent Contract Wins 99

Table 38: Polish Defense Holding, Major Products 100

Table 39: Polish Defense Holding, Alliances 102

Table 40: Polish Defense Holding, Recent Contract Wins 104

Table 41: PZL Mielec – Main Products 105

Table 42: PZL Mielec, Alliances 106

Table 43: PZL Mielec, Recent Contract Wins 106

Table 44: Wojskowe Zakłady Uzbrojenia SA, Main Products and Services 107

Table 45: Wojskowe Zakłady Uzbrojenia SA, Alliances 108

Table 46: Huta Stalowa Wola, Main Products and Services 109

Table 47: Huta Stalowa Wola, Alliances 110

Table 48: Huta Stalowa Wola, Recent Contract Wins 110

Table 49: ROSOMAK S.A.: Main Products and Services 111

Table 50: ROSOMAK SA., Recent Contract Wins 112

Figures

List of Figures

Figure 1: Polish Defense Expenditure (PLN Billion), 2013-2022 28

Figure 2: Polish Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 29

Figure 3: Polish GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2013-2022 33

Figure 4:Polish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),2013-2022 35

Figure 5: Polish Defense Capital Expenditure (PLN Billion), 2013-2022 37

Figure 6: Polish Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 38

Figure 7: Polish Defense Expenditure Allocation (% Share), 2013-2022 40

Figure 8: Polish Army Defense Budget (PLN Billion), 2013-2022 42

Figure 9: Polish Army Defense Budget (US$ Million), 2013-2022 43

Figure 10: Polish Air Force Defense Budget (PLN Billion), 2013-2022 45

Figure 11: Polish Air Force Defense Budget (US$ Million), 2013-2022 46

Figure 12: Polish Navy Defense Budget (PLN Billion), 2013-2022 48

Figure 13: Polish Navy Defense Budget (US$ Million), 2013-2022 48

Figure 14: Polish Other Category Defense Budget (PLN Billion), 2013-2022 50

Figure 15: Polish Other Category Defense Budget (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 50

Figure 16: Poland Per Capita Expenditure (US$), 2013-2022 52

Figure 17: Polish Homeland Security Budget (PLN Billion), 2013-2022 54

Figure 18: Polish Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2013-2022 54

Figure 19: Terrorism Heat Map 57

Figure 20: Terrorism Index, 2017 60

Figure 21: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022 62

Figure 22: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2017 and 2022 63

Figure 23: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2017 64

Figure 24: Missile Defense System Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2027 65

Figure 25: Multi-role Helicopter Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2027 66

Figure 26: Diesel Electric Submarine Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2027 67

Figure 27: Corvettes Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2027 68

Figure 28: Polish Defense Imports (US$ Million), 2012-2016 70

Figure 29: Polish Defense Imports by Country (%),2012-2016 71

Figure 30: Polish Defense Imports by Category (%), 2012-2016 72

Figure 31: Polish Defense Exports by Value (US$ Million), 2012-2016 73

Figure 32: Polish Defense Exports by Country (%), 2012-2016 74

Figure 33: Polish Defense Exports by Category (%), 2012-2016 75

Figure 34: Industry Dynamics: Porter’s Five Forces Analysis 76

Figure 35: Polish GDP Per Capita, 2015-2025 113

Figure 36: Polish GDP, Current Prices (In US$ Billions), 2015-2025 114

Figure 37: Polish Exports of goods and services, current prices (LCU Billion), 2005- 2014 115

Figure 38: Polish Imports of goods and services, current prices (LCU Billion), 2005- 2014 116

Figure 39: Polish Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005- 2012 117

Figure 40: Local Currency Unit per US$- Exchange Rate , 2015-2024 118

Figure 41: Polish Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 119

Figure 42: Polish Market Capitalization of Listed Companies as percentage of GDP, 2005-2012 120

Figure 43: Polish Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2012 121

Figure 44: Poland’s Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 122

Figure 45: Poland’s Goods Imports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 123

Figure 46: Poland’s Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as a percentage of GDP, 2003-2012 124

Figure 47: Poland’s Service Imports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 125

Figure 48: Poland’s Service Exports as % of GDP, 2005-2013 126

Figure 49: Poland’s Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ Bn), 2005-2013 127

Figure 50: Poland’s Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP, 2005-2013 128

Figure 51: Poland’s Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 129

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