Future of the Sri Lankan Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

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Published: February 07, 2018 Report Code: GD-DF0482MR-ST

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The Future of the Sri Lankan Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023, published by Strategic Defense Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Synopsis

This report offers detailed analysis of the Sri Lankan defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following –
– The Sri Lankan defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Sri Lankan defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
– Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
– Porter’s Five Force analysis of the Sri Lankan defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
– Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
– Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years
– Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Sri Lankan defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Scope

– The Sri Lankan defense budget is valued at US$1.9 billion in 2018, and registered a CAGR of -1.35% during the historic period. The post-war rehabilitation, threat of the re-emergence of LTTE affiliates, and a tense relationship with India drove the Sri Lankan defense expenditure during the historic period. With this trend expected to continue over the forecast period.

– The capital expenditure allocation, which stood at an average of 12.1% during the historic period, is expected to decrease to an average of 8.4% during the forecast period. This is primarily due to the procurement of advanced defense equipment and focus on increasing the indigenous defense manufacturing capabilities. Key opportunities for equipment suppliers are expected in sectors such as patrol vessels and naval infrastructure, combat aircraft, and transport helicopters. Consequently, revenue expenditure is expected to increase from an average of 87.9% during the historic period to an average of 91.6% over the forecast period, which will be directed towards additional recruitment, training, and development programs for military personnel.

– The MoD is expected to invest in Infrastructure development, Facilities management and MRO for patrol vessels and corvettes.

Reasons to Buy

– This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Sri Lankan defense industry market trends for the coming five years

– The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

– Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

– A deep qualitative analysis of the Sri Lankan defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

Colombo Dockyard Plc. (CDPLC)

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Introduction 7

1.1. What is this Report About? 7

1.2. Definitions 7

1.3. Summary Methodology 9

1.4. About Strategic Defense Intelligence 10

2. Executive Summary 11

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 13

3.1. Current Market Scenario 14

3.1.1. Primary threat perception 14

3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy 15

3.1.3. Military Fleet Size 16

3.1.4. Procurement Programs 19

3.1.5. Ongoing procurement programs 19

3.1.6. Future procurement programs 19

3.1.7. Top Procurement Programs By Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023 20

3.1.8. Social, Political and Economic Environment & Support for Defense Projects 21

3.1.9. Political & Strategic Alliances 22

3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 23

3.2.1. Sri Lankan defense budget to grow at a CAGR of

1.71% during 2019-2023 to value US$2.0 billion in 2023 23

3.2.2. The re-emergence of the LTTE, geopolitics of Indian Ocean & balancing relationships with regional superpowers are expected to drive Sri Lankan defense expenditure 26

3.2.3. Sri Lankan defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to decrease to an average of

1.8% during 2019-2023 28

3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 30

3.3.1. Share of capital expenditure expected to increase over forecast period 30

3.3.2. Capital expenditure to increase at a CAGR of

8.47% during the forecast period 32

3.3.3. Sri Lankan Army accounts for the largest share of defense expenditure 34

3.3.4. Budget allocation on others is expected to remain highest over the forecast period 36

3.3.5. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period 40

3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 42

3.4.1. Sri Lankan homeland security expected to grow steadily over the forecast period 42

3.4.2. Maritime security, Counterterrorism, and countering violent extremism are expected to drive Sri Lankan homeland security expenditure 44

3.4.3. Sri Lank falls under “highly affected” terrorism category 45

3.4.4. Sri Lanka is highly affected by terrorism 46

3.4.5. Sri Lanka has a terrorism index score of “2.9” 48

3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 49

3.5.1. Sri Lankan defense budget expected to increase over the forecast period 49

3.5.2. Sri Lankan military expenditure remains limited compared to countries with the largest defense expenditure 51

3.5.3. Sri Lanka spent over

2.2% of its GDP on defense in 2018 52

3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 53

3.6.1. Top 10 Defense market sectors by value (US$ Million) – Projections over period 2018-2023 53

3.6.2. Demand for infrastructure construction expected to increase over the forecast period 54

3.6.3. Corvette MRO 56

3.6.4. Facilities Management 57

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 58

4.1. Import Market Dynamics 59

4.1.1. Defense imports are expected to remain low during the forecast period. 59

4.1.2. Sri Lanka sourced the majority of its arms imports from Russia 60

4.1.3. Ships and aircraft dominated military hardware imports 61

4.2. Export Market Dynamics 62

4.2.1. The country exported negligible defense goods during 2012-2016 62

5. Industry Dynamics 63

5.1. Five Forces Analysis 63

5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: medium to high 64

5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: low 64

5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium 64

5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low 64

5.1.5. Threat of substitute: high 64

6. Market Entry Strategy 65

6.1. Market Regulation 65

6.1.1. Undisclosed FDI policy relating to defense 65

6.2. Market Entry Route 66

6.2.1. Budgeting Process 66

6.2.2. Procurement Policy & Process 68

6.2.3. Cooperative agreement and partnerships an easier way to access the Sri Lanka defense market 69

6.2.4. Equipment manufacturers enter the market through direct sales 69

6.3. Key Challenges 70

6.3.1. Corruption and lack of transparency pose an obstacle for market entry 70

6.3.2. Underdeveloped domestic industry and internal instability discourages foreign participation 70

6.3.3. Limited defense budget deters investors from market entry 70

7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 71

7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 71

7.1.1. Colombo Dockyard Plc.: overview 73

7.1.2. Colombo Dockyard Plc.: products 73

7.1.3. Colombo Dockyard Plc.: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 73

7.1.4. Colombo Dockyard Plc: alliances 74

7.1.5. Colombo Dockyard Plc.: recent contract wins 74

8. Business Environment and Country Risk 75

8.1. Economic Performance 75

8.1.1. Gross Domestic per Capita 75

8.1.2. Gross Domestic Product, current US$ 76

8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services 77

8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services 78

8.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income 79

8.1.6. Local Currency Unit per US$ 80

8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies 81

8.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies as a % of GDP 82

8.1.9. Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU) 83

8.1.10. Goods Exports as a % of GDP 84

8.1.11. Goods Imports as a % of GDP 85

8.1.12. Services Imports as a % of GDP 86

8.1.13. Services Exports as a % of GDP 87

8.1.14. Foreign Direct Investment, BoP, Current Values in US$ Billions 88

8.1.15. Net FDI as a % of GDP 89

8.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output 90

9. Appendix 91

9.1. About SDI 91

9.2. Disclaimer 91

Table

List of Tables

Table 1: Sri Lankan Land Forces Strength 16

Table 2: Sri Lankan Navy Strength 17

Table 3: Sri Lankan Air Force Strength 18

Table 4: Sri Lankan Ongoing Procurement Programs 19

Table 5: Sri Lankan Future Procurement Programs 19

Table 6: Top Sri Lankan Defense Programs by Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023 20

Table 7: Sri Lankan Defense Expenditure (LKR billion & US$ billion), 2014-2023 24

Table 8: Sri Lankan GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2014-2023 28

Table 9: Sri Lankan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 30

Table 10: Sri Lankan Defense Capital Expenditure (LKR Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 32

Table 11: Sri Lankan Defense Capital Expenditure Breakdown (%), 2014-2023 34

Table 12: Sri Lankan Defense Budget in LKR Billion – Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2014-2023 36

Table 13: Sri Lankan Defense Budget in US$ Billion – Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2014-2023 38

Table 14: Sri Lankan Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 40

Table 15: Sri Lankan Homeland Security Expenditure (LKR Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 42

Table 16: Terrorism Index, 2018 46

Table 17: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 49

Table 18: Top 10 Sri Lankan Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) – 2018-2023 53

Table 19: Sri Lankan Budget Formation Timetable: 66

Table 20: Market Entry Strategies by Key Foreign Companies 69

Table 21: Top 10 Defense Suppliers in Sri Lankan Defense Industry – By Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023 71

Table 22: Competitive Landscape of the Sri Lankan Defense Industry 72

Table 23: Colombo Dockyard Plc.- Key Products 73

Table 24: Colombo Dockyard Plc. – Alliances 74

Table 25: Colombo Dockyard Plc. – Recent Contracts 74

Figures

List of Figures

Figure 1: Sri Lankan Defense Expenditure (LKR Billion), 2014-2023 24

Figure 2: Sri Lankan Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 25

Figure 3: Sri Lankan GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditures Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023 29

Figure 4:Sri Lankan defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 31

Figure 5: Sri Lankan Defense Capital Expenditure (LKR Billion), 2014-2023 33

Figure 6: Sri Lankan Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2014-2023 33

Figure 7: Sri Lankan Defense Budget Allocation (%), 2014-2023 35

Figure 8: Sri Lankan Defense Budget in LKR Billion – Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force, and Others) 2014-2023 37

Figure 9: Sri Lankan Defense Budget in US$ Million – Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2014-2023 39

Figure 10: Sri Lankan per capita defense expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 41

Figure 11: Sri Lankan Homeland Security Budget (LKR Billion), 2014-2023 43

Figure 12: Sri Lankan Homeland Security Budget (US$ Million), 2014-2023 43

Figure 13: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018 45

Figure 14: Terrorism Index, 2018 48

Figure 15: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022 50

Figure 16: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2018 and 2023 51

Figure 17: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018 52

Figure 18:Sri Lankan Infrastructure Construction Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023 55

Figure 19:Sri Lankan Corvette MRO Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023 56

Figure 20:Sri Lankan Facilities Management Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023 57

Figure 21: Sri Lankan Defense Procurements In Terms Of Their Supplier Relationships 58

Figure 22: Sri Lankan Defense Import Trend, 2012-2016 (TIV values) 59

Figure 23: Sri Lankan Defense Imports by Country (%), 2012-2016 60

Figure 24: Sri Lankan Defense Imports by Category (%), 2012-2016 61

Figure 25: Industry Dynamics – Porter’s Five Forces Analysis 63

Figure 26: Sri Lankan GDP per capita, 2016-2025 75

Figure 27: Sri Lankan Gross Domestic Product (current US$ Bn), 2016-2025 76

Figure 28: Sri Lankan Exports of goods and services (current LCU Bn), 2005-2010 77

Figure 29: Sri Lankan Imports of goods and services (current LCU Bn), 2005-2010 78

Figure 30: Sri Lankan gross national disposable income (US$ Bn), 2005-2014 79

Figure 31: Sri Lankan LCU per US$, 2015-2024 80

Figure 32: Sri Lankan Market Capitalization of listed Companies (US$ Bn), 2005-2012 81

Figure 33: Sri Lankan Market Capitalization of listed companies as a % of GDP, 2005-2012 82

Figure 34: Sri Lankan Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU), 2005-2012 83

Figure 35: Sri Lankan Goods Exports as a % of GDP, 2005-2014 84

Figure 36: Sri Lankan Goods Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2014 85

Figure 37: Sri Lankan Services Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2014 86

Figure 38: Sri Lankan Services Exports as a % of GDP, 2005-2014 87

Figure 39: Sri Lankan FDI, net (BoP, Current US$ BN), 2005-2014 88

Figure 40: Sri Lankan Net FDI as a % of GDP, 2005-2014 89

Figure 41: Sri Lankan Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output(LCU Bn), 2005-2014 90

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