Gastric and Gastroesophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma – Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2029

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Gastric and gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma (G/GEJAC) is the fifth most common form of cancer and the fourth leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide, yet little is known about its exact etiology despite much ongoing research. Notably, G/GEJAC incidence rates are much higher in East Asia, particularly in Japan, China, and Korea. Approximately 90–95% of G/GEJACs are adenocarcinomas, while the rest represent rarer gastric malignancies, such as gastrointestinal stromal tumors, lymphomas, and neuroendocrine tumors. Historically, treatment of G/GEJAC has been mostly reliant on chemotherapy, with this remaining the mainstay for HER2-negative patients. Since 2010, the introduction of Roche’s Herceptin, Eli Lilly’s Cyramza and more recently BMS’s Opdivo and Merck’s Keytruda have allowed for this first sequential therapy option for these patients. GlobalData is expecting a total of 9 new entrants to launch over the forecast period in the 8MM from 2019–2029, while specific marketed agents are expected to move into earlier lines of treatment as novel combinations. The new competitive landscape will be driven by novel HER-2 targeting agents, novel biomarker-driven therapies and the label expansions of immunotherapies.
KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED
Nine late-stage pipeline agents and five label expansions are going to enter the G/GEJAC market from 2019 onwards. What the impact will these agents have on the market? Which of these drugs will have the highest peak sales, and why?
What are the current unmet needs in G/GEJAC, which pipeline agents are positioned to counter these unmet needs? What are the opportunities for R&D?
What is the market outlook in the 8MM from 2019-2029? Considering major patent expiries, launch of new premium priced agents and expected label expansions.

Scope

Overview of G/GEJAC including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and treatment guidelines.

Topline G/GEJAC market revenue, annual cost of therapy, and major pipeline product sales in the forecast period.

Key topics covered include current treatment and pipeline therapies, unmet needs and opportunities, and the drivers and barriers affecting G/GEJAC therapeutics sales in the 8MM.

Pipeline analysis: Comprehensive data split across different phases, emerging novel trends under development, and detailed analysis of late-stage pipeline drugs (Phase III).

Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global G/GEJAC therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.

Key Highlights

The main drivers of growth include the anticipated launch of novel HER2-targeting drugs, new drug classes and label expansions of currently marketed therapies across the 8MM during the forecast period.

The main barriers to growth in the 8MM include the patent expiry of the market leading drugs.

Among the late-stage pipeline products and marketed agents, marketed drug combinations, novel HER2-targeting agents and novel biomarker-led therapies are expected to generate the greatest revenues over the forecast period.

The most important unmet needs in the G/GEJAC market include: the lack of approved therapies for metastatic patients, alternatives to chemotherapy in the neoadjuvant/adjuvant setting for resectable disease patients, the identification of widespread biomarkers and the adoption of a cost-effective screening programs.

Reasons to Buy

The report will enable you to:

Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies, using a detailed overview of current pipeline products and technologies to identify companies with the most robust pipelines.

Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global G/GEJAC therapeutics market.

Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global G/GEJAC market in the future.

Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.

Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.

Track drug sales in the global G/GEJAC therapeutics market from 2019-2029.

Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.

Astellas Pharmaceuticals
AstraZeneca
Bayer
Beigene
Bristol-Myers Squibb
Daichii Sankyo
Elevar Therapeutics
Eli Lilly
FivePrime Therapeutics
Incyte
Macrogenics
Merck Co
Ono Pharmaceuticals
Roche
Taiho Pharmaceuticals
Zai Labs
ZymeWorks

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents

1.1 List of Tables

1.2 List of Figures

2 Gastric and Gastroesophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma: Executive Summary

2.1 Large Market Growth Forecast for the G/GEJAC Market During 2019–2029

2.2 Drug Developers Focusing on Combination Therapies Featuring an Immunotherapy Backbone

2.3 Increasing Interest in Developing Therapies for Niche Populations

2.4 Bringing Novel HER2-Targeting Mechanisms into the Treatment Paradigm to Tackle G/GEJAC Tumor Heterogeneity

2.5 What Do Physicians Think?

3 Introduction

3.1 Catalyst

3.2 Related Reports

3.3 Upcoming Related Reports

4 Disease Overview

4.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology

4.1.1 Etiology

4.1.2 Pathophysiology

4.2 Classification or Staging Systems

5 Epidemiology

5.1 Disease Background

5.2 Risk Factors

5.3 Global and Historical Trends

5.3.1 8MM, Trends in the Diagnosed Incidence

5.4 Forecast Methodology

5.4.1 Sources

5.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods

5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Gastric Cancer (2019–2029)

5.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer

5.5.2 Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer

5.5.3 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer

5.5.4 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Gastric Cancer

5.5.5 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis

5.5.6 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer with HER2 Overexpression

5.5.7 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer with PD-L1 Expression

5.5.8 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer with MSI

5.5.9 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer with NTRK Gene Fusions

5.5.10 Diagnosed Incident Cases of GEJ Cancer

5.5.11 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer, Excluding GEJ Cancer

5.5.12 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Adenocarcinoma

5.6 Discussion

5.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight

5.6.2 COVID-19 Impact

5.6.3 Limitations of the Analysis

5.6.4 Strengths of the Analysis

6 Disease Management

6.1 Diagnosis and Treatment Overview

6.2 US

6.3 Europe

6.4 Japan

6.5 South Korea

7 Competitive Assessment

7.1 Overview

8 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment

8.1 Overview

8.2 Novel Drugs to Address Stage IV G/GEJAC Patients

8.3 Lack of Treatment Options for Patients with Stage II–III G/GEJAC in the Adjuvant and Neoadjuvant Setting

8.4 Demanding Evaluation of Cost-Effectiveness Impacting Approval and Reimbursement Across the 8MM

8.5 Disparity in Adoption of Nationwide Screening Programs Hinders Early Stage Disease Diagnosis in the US and 5EU

9 Pipeline Assessment

9.1 Overview

9.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development

9.2.1 HER2-Specific Drugs with a New Take on HER2 Targeting

9.2.2 Targeted Therapy Combinatorial Options for HER2-Positive and HER2-Negative Patients

9.2.3 Novel Drug Classes for Specific Patient Subsets

9.2.4 Re-Assessment of PARP Inhibitors and Other Less Anticipated Classes In G/GEJAC

10 Current and Future Players

10.1 Overview

10.2 Trends in Corporate Strategy

10.3 Current Players

10.3.1 Roche’s Portfolio Assessment

10.3.2 Eli Lilly’s Portfolio Assessment

10.3.3 Taiho Pharmaceutical’s Portfolio Assessment

10.4 Current and Future Players

10.4.1 Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Portfolio Assessment

10.4.2 Merck’s Portfolio Assessment

10.5 Future Players

10.5.1 Astellas Pharmaceutical’s Portfolio Assessment

10.5.2 Daichii Sankyo’s Portfolio Assessment

11 Market Outlook

11.1 Global Markets

11.1.1 Forecast

11.1.2 Drivers and Barriers – Global Issues

11.2 US

11.2.1 Forecast

11.2.2 Key Events

11.2.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.3 5EU

11.3.1 Forecast

11.3.2 Key Events

11.3.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.4 Japan

11.4.1 Forecast

11.4.2 Key Events

11.4.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.5 South Korea

11.5.1 Forecast

11.5.2 Key Events

11.5.3 Drivers and Barriers

12 Appendix

12.1 Bibliography

12.2 Abbreviations

12.3 Methodology

12.3.1 Forecasting Methodology

12.3.2 Diagnosed Patients

12.3.3 Percent Drug-Treated Patients

12.3.4 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class

12.3.5 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates

12.3.6 General Pricing Assumptions

12.3.7 Individual Drug Assumptions

12.3.8 Generic Erosion

12.3.9 Pricing of Pipeline Agents

12.4 Primary Research – KOLs and Payers Interviewed for This Report

12.5 Primary Research – Prescriber Survey

12.6 About the Authors

12.6.1 Primary Analyst

12.6.2 Secondary Analyst

12.6.3 Reviewer

12.6.4 Therapy Area Director

12.6.5 Epidemiologist

12.6.6 Managing Epidemiologist

12.6.7 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

12.6.8 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy

12.7 About GlobalData

12.8 Contact Us

12.9 Disclaimer

Table

Table 1: Gastric and Gastroesophageal Adenocarcinoma: Key Metrics in the 8MM

Table 2: Stage Definitions for Gastric Cancer

Table 3: Risk Factors for Gastric Cancer

Table 4: Treatment Guidelines for G/GEJAC

Table 5: Generic Chemotherapy Regimens Indicated for Gastric Cancer

Table 6: Country Profile – US

Table 7: Country Profile – 5EU

Table 8: Country Profile – Japan

Table 9: Country Profile – South Korea

Table 10: Launch Year for Currently Marketed Drugs in the G/GEJAC Market

Table 11: Roche’s Disease Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 12: Eli Lilly’s Disease Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 13: Taiho Pharmaceutical’s Disease Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 14: BMS’ Disease Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 15: Merck’s Disease Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 16: Astellas Pharmaceuticals’ Disease Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 17: Daichii Sankyo’s Disease Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 18: G/GEJAC Market – Global Drivers and Barriers, 2019–2029

Table 19: Key Events Impacting Sales for G/GEJAC in the US, 2019–2029

Table 20: G/GEJAC Market – Drivers and Barriers in the US, 2019–2029

Table 21: Key Events Impacting Sales for G/GEJAC in the 5EU, 2019–2029

Table 22: G/GEJAC Market – Drivers and Barriers in the 5EU, 2019–2029

Table 23: Key Events Impacting Sales for Gastric Cancer in Japan, 2019–2029

Table 24: Gastric Cancer Market – Global Drivers and Barriers in Japan, 2019–2029

Table 25: Key Events Impacting Sales for Gastric Cancer in Japan, 2019–2029

Table 26: G/GEJAC Market – Global Drivers and Barriers in South Korea, 2019–2029

Table 27: Key Historical and Projected Launch Dates for G/GEJAC

Table 28: Key Historical and Projected Patent Expiry Dates for G/GEJAC

Table 29: High-Prescribing Physicians (Non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country

Figures

Figure 1: Global Sales Forecast for G/GEJAC by Country, 2019 and 2029

Figure 2: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in G/GEJAC, 2019–2029

Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to Be Licensed for the Treatment of G/GEJAC, 2019–2029

Figure 4: 8MM, Diagnosed Incidence of Gastric Cancer, Men, Ages ≥20 Years, 2009–2029, Cases Per 100,000 Population

Figure 5: 8MM, Diagnosed Incidence of Gastric Cancer, Women, Ages ≥20 Years, 2009–2029, Cases Per 100,000 Population

Figure 6: Sources Used and Not Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer

Figure 7: Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis

Figure 8: Sources Used for Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Gastric Cancer

Figure 9: Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer with HER2 Overexpression

Figure 10: Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer with PD-L1 Expression

Figure 11: Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer with MSI

Figure 12: Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer with NTRK Gene Fusions

Figure 13: Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of GEJ Cancer

Figure 14: Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer, excluding GEJ Cancer

Figure 15: Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Adenocarcinoma

Figure 16: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer, Men and Women, Ages ≥20 Years, 2019

Figure 17: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer, Men and Women, Ages ≥20 Years, 2019

Figure 18: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer, Men and Women, Ages ≥20 Years, 2019, N

Figure 19: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Gastric Cancer, Men and Women, Ages ≥20 Years, 2019

Figure 20: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis, Men and Women, Ages ≥20 Years, 2019

Figure 21: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer with HER2 Overexpression, Men and Women, Ages ≥20 Years, 2019

Figure 22: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer with PD-L1 Expression, Men and Women, Ages ≥20 Years, 2019

Figure 23: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer with MSI, Men and Women, Ages ≥20 Years, 2019

Figure 24: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer with NTRK Gene Fusions, Men and Women, Ages ≥20 Years, 2019

Figure 25: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of GEJ Cancer, Men and Women, Ages ≥20 Years, 2019

Figure 26: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Cancer, Excluding GEJ Cancer, Men and Women, Ages ≥20 Years, 2019

Figure 27: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Gastric Adenocarcinoma, Men and Women, Ages ≥20 Years, 2019

Figure 28: Treatment for G/GEJAC Patients Based on HER2 Status

Figure 29: Unmet Needs and Opportunities in G/GEJAC

Figure 30: Overview of the Development Pipeline in G/GEJAC

Figure 31: Key Phase II/III Trials for the Promising Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to Be Licensed for G/GEJAC in the 8MM During the Forecast Period

Figure 32: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to Be Licensed for the Treatment of G/GEJAC During the Forecast Period

Figure 33: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in G/GEJAC During the Forecast Period

Figure 34: Global (8MM) Sales Forecast by Country for G/GEJAC in 2019 and 2029

Figure 35: Sales Forecast by Class for G/GEJAC in the US in 2019 and 2029

Figure 36: Sales Forecast by Class for G/GEJAC in the 5EU in 2019 and 2029

Figure 37: Sales Forecast by Class for Gastric Cancer in Japan in 2019 and 2029

Figure 38: Sales Forecast by Class for G/GEJAC in South Korea in 2019 and 2029

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