Brexit’s Impact On UK Auto – Thematic Research

Brexit – the term used to refer to the UK’s planned departure from the European Union (EU) – is one of the most controversial political stories of recent times. The report looks at three Brexit scenarios, with a focus on No Deal, and quantifies the tariff costs to the UK automotive manufacturing sector.

Scope

This report is part of our ecosystem of thematic investment research reports, supported by our “thematic engine”.

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GlobalData has developed a unique thematic methodology for valuing technology, media and telecom companies based on their relative strength in the big investment themes that are impacting their industry. Whilst most investment research is underpinned by backwards looking company valuation models, GlobalData’s thematic methodology identifies which companies are best placed to succeed in a future filled with multiple disruptive threats. To do this, GlobalData tracks the performance of the top 600 technology, media and telecom stocks against the 50 most important themes driving their earnings, generating 30,000 thematic scores. The algorithms in GlobalData’s “thematic engine” help to clearly identify the winners and losers within the TMT sector. Our 600 TMT stocks are categorised into 18 sectors. Each sector scorecard has a thematic screen, a risk screen and a valuation screen. Our thematic research ecosystem has a three-tiered reporting structure: single theme, multi-theme and sector scorecard. This report is a Multi-Theme report, covering all stocks, all sectors and all themes, giving readers a strong sense of how everything fits together and how conflicting themes might interact with one another.

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Companies mentioned

PSA

BMW

Mini

Jaguar Land Rover

Nissan

Toyota

Table of Contents

WINNERS AND LOSERS

BREXIT TIMELINE

WHERE ARE WE NOW AND WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

Summary of impact of Brexit on UK vehicle manufacturing under different scenarios

BREXIT SCENARIOS AND UK VEHICLE MANUFACTURING

The orderly withdrawal, with an agreement

A disorderly departure, i.e. "No Deal"

No Deal stopped scenario

SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF BREXIT'S IMPACT ON AUTO

The costs of a Hard Brexit, or No Deal

The AutoAnalysis model for calculating Brexit costs on the automotive industry

COUNTERING THE COSTS OF A HARD, NO DEAL BREXIT

Increasing UK content of UK made vehicles

Relocating UK production to factories inside the EU

Changing the markets into which UK manufacturers sell

Refocusing UK production to supply the domestic market

CAR COMPANIES' BREXIT AMELIORATION POSSIBILITIES

CONCLUSION

Brexit on WTO terms would have a severely deleterious effect on UK vehicle production

A switch permanently to WTO terms would be much worse

The No Deal scenario – options open to the volume vehicle companies

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