Brexit’s impact on UK auto – Thematic Research
- Pages: 27
- Published: August 2019
- Report Code: GDAU-TR-S010
Brexit – the term used to refer to the UK’s planned departure from the European Union (EU) – is one of the most controversial political stories of recent times. The report looks at three Brexit scenarios, with a focus on No Deal, and quantifies the tariff costs to the UK automotive manufacturing sector.
This report is part of our ecosystem of thematic investment research reports, supported by our “thematic engine”.
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GlobalData has developed a unique thematic methodology for valuing technology, media and telecom companies based on their relative strength in the big investment themes that are impacting their industry. Whilst most investment research is underpinned by backwards looking company valuation models, GlobalData’s thematic methodology identifies which companies are best placed to succeed in a future filled with multiple disruptive threats. To do this, GlobalData tracks the performance of the top 600 technology, media and telecom stocks against the 50 most important themes driving their earnings, generating 30,000 thematic scores. The algorithms in GlobalData’s “thematic engine” help to clearly identify the winners and losers within the TMT sector. Our 600 TMT stocks are categorised into 18 sectors. Each sector scorecard has a thematic screen, a risk screen and a valuation screen. Our thematic research ecosystem has a three-tiered reporting structure: single theme, multi-theme and sector scorecard. This report is a Multi-Theme report, covering all stocks, all sectors and all themes, giving readers a strong sense of how everything fits together and how conflicting themes might interact with one another.
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Jaguar Land Rover
Table of Contents
WINNERS AND LOSERS
WHERE ARE WE NOW AND WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
Summary of impact of Brexit on UK vehicle manufacturing under different scenarios
BREXIT SCENARIOS AND UK VEHICLE MANUFACTURING
The orderly withdrawal, with an agreement
A disorderly departure, i.e. "No Deal"
No Deal stopped scenario
SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF BREXIT'S IMPACT ON AUTO
The costs of a Hard Brexit, or No Deal
The AutoAnalysis model for calculating Brexit costs on the automotive industry
COUNTERING THE COSTS OF A HARD, NO DEAL BREXIT
Increasing UK content of UK made vehicles
Relocating UK production to factories inside the EU
Changing the markets into which UK manufacturers sell
Refocusing UK production to supply the domestic market
CAR COMPANIES' BREXIT AMELIORATION POSSIBILITIES
Brexit on WTO terms would have a severely deleterious effect on UK vehicle production
A switch permanently to WTO terms would be much worse
The No Deal scenario – options open to the volume vehicle companies