Construction in Bulgaria - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2023

Bulgaria’s construction industry retained growth momentum in 2017 and 2018, with output expanding by 4.4% and 3.7% respectively in real terms - up from -6.8% in 2016. This growth can be attributed to positive developments in economic conditions, improvement in investor confidence, and public and private sector investments in infrastructure, industrial and housing construction projects.

Over the forecast period (2019-2023), the industry is expected to be driven by the government’s efforts to develop the country’s transport infrastructure and residential market. Financial assistance from the European Union (EU) will also support the industry’s growth over the forecast period; the country will receive BGN4.5 billion (US$2.7 billion) from the EU’s 2019 budget, of which BGN1.5 billion (US$903.9 million) will be allotted towards infrastructure projects in the country. The focus on the development of nuclear energy and water and sewage infrastructure projects is also expected to drive the industry’s growth. An increase in the number of new building permits issued is also expected to support new construction activity over the forecast period.

The industry’s output value in real terms is expected to rise at a CAGR of 4.40% over the forecast period, compared to 0.91% during the review period (2014-2018).

GlobalData’s "Construction in Bulgaria - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2023", report provides detailed market analysis, information and insights into the Bulgarian construction industry, including -

- The Bulgarian construction industry's growth prospects by market, project type and construction activity

- Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, as well as an analysis of key risks and opportunities in the Bulgarian construction industry

- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, focusing on development stages and participants, in addition to listings of major projects in the pipeline

Key Highlights

- GlobalData expects the infrastructure construction market to retain its leading position over the forecast period and account for 33.9% of the industry’s total value in 2023, supported by the government’s investment in rail and road transport infrastructure development projects. In the 2019 budget, the government announced plans to invest BGN550.0 million (US$331.4 million) on infrastructure development. In March 2019, the government announced plans to spend BGN7.0 billion (US$4.2 billion) on road infrastructure development in the northern Bulgaria region. The project involves the construction of Hemus motorway, connecting roads between Rousse-VelikoTurnovo and Vidin-Botevgrad, a tunnel under Shipka and by-pass road of Gabrovo.

- Forecast-period growth in the energy and utilities construction market will be driven by the government’s focus on the development of the country’s nuclear power. With an expected investment of BGN17.0 billion (US$10.2 billion), the government plans to develop a new power plant at Belene by 2027. In March 2019, the government issued tenders to select a strategic investor for the Belene nuclear power project. With an expected investment of BGN8.8 billion (US$5.3 billion), the government plans to construct a new reactor unit-seven at Kozloduy nuclear power plant by 2025.

- GlobalData expects the institutional construction market to register a nominal forecast-period CAGR of 6.13%, driven by the government’s effort to provide a good quality of education and healthcare services to the population. In the 2019 budget, the government increased its expenditure on the education sector by 9.3%, going from BGN3.8 billion (US$2.3 billion) in 2018 to BGN4.2 billion (US$2.5 billion) in 2019; while expenditure on the healthcare sector increased by 11.6%, going from BGN4.7 billion (US$2.8 billion) to BGN5.3 billion (US$3.2 billion) during the same period.

- Residential construction market’s forecast-period growth will be supported by foreign investments to develop the country’s housing market. Arco Vara, an Estonian real estate company, plans to develop a residential village, the Lozen project, on a 5.3ha area. It plans to commence the first phase of the project in the first half of 2019, which involves the construction of 179 housing units with an investment of BGN37.1 million (US$22.3 million) by 2020. Moreover, the company plans to invest BGN123.9 million (US$74.5 million) to develop residential projects in Sofia by 2022-2023.

- The total construction project pipeline in Bulgaria - as tracked by GlobalData, and including all mega projects with a value above US$25 million - stands at BGN57.2 billion (US$34.4 billion). The pipeline, which includes all projects from pre-planning to execution, is relatively balanced, with 50.1% of the pipeline value being in projects in the pre-planning and planning stages as of April 2019.

Scope

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Bulgaria. It provides -

- Historical (2014-2018) and forecast (2019-2023) valuations of the construction industry in Bulgaria, featuring details of key growth drivers.

- Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by sub-sector

- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, including breakdowns by development stage across all sectors, and projected spending on projects in the existing pipeline.

- Listings of major projects, in addition to details of leading contractors and consultants.

Reasons to buy

- Identify and evaluate market opportunities using GlobalData's standardized valuation and forecasting methodologies.

- Assess market growth potential at a micro-level with over 600 time-series data forecasts.

- Understand the latest industry and market trends.

- Formulate and validate strategy using GlobalData's critical and actionable insight.

- Assess business risks, including cost, regulatory and competitive pressures.

- Evaluate competitive risk and success factors.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2. CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK: AT-A-GLANCE

3. LATEST NEWS AND INDICATORS

4. KEY DRIVERS AND RISKS

4.1. Economic Performance

4 ...

Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2. CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK: AT-A-GLANCE

3. LATEST NEWS AND INDICATORS

4. KEY DRIVERS AND RISKS

4.1. Economic Performance

4.2. Political Environment

4.3. Demographics

4.4. Risk Profile

5. CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK

5.1. All Construction

5.1.1. Outlook

5.1.2. Project analytics

5.2. Commercial Construction

5.2.1. Outlook

5.2.2. Project analytics

5.3. Industrial Construction

5.3.1. Outlook

5.3.2. Project analytics

5.4. Infrastructure Construction

5.4.1. Outlook

5.4.2. Project analytics

5.5. Energy and Utilities Construction

5.5.1. Outlook

5.5.2. Project analytics

5.6. Institutional Construction

5.6.1. Outlook

5.6.2. Project analytics

5.7. Residential Construction

5.7.1. Outlook

5.7.2. Project analytics

6. KEY INDUSTRY PARTICIPANTS

6.1. Contractors

6.2. Consultants

7. APPENDIX

7.1. What is this Report About?

7.2. Definitions

8. ABOUT GLOBALDATA

8.1. GlobalData at a Glance

8.2. GlobalData Construction

8.3. Disclaimer

8.4. Contact Us

List of Tables

List of Tables

Table 1: Construction Outlook

Table 2: Bulgaria, Key Economic Indicators

Table 3: Bulgaria, Construction Output Value (nominal, BGN Million)

Table 4: Bulgaria ...

List of Tables

Table 1: Construction Outlook

Table 2: Bulgaria, Key Economic Indicators

Table 3: Bulgaria, Construction Output Value (nominal, BGN Million)

Table 4: Bulgaria, Construction Output Value (nominal, US$ Million)

Table 5: Bulgaria, Top Commercial Construction Projects by Value

Table 6: Bulgaria, Top Industrial Construction Projects by Value

Table 7: Bulgaria, Top Infrastructure Construction Projects by Value

Table 8: Bulgaria, Top Energy and Utilities Construction Projects by Value

Table 9: Bulgaria, Top Institutional Construction Projects by Value

Table 10: Bulgaria, Top Residential and Mixed-Use Construction Projects by Value

Table 11: Bulgaria, Key Contractors

Table 12: Bulgaria, Key Consultants

Table 13: GlobalData Construction Market Definitions

Table 14: Construction Risk Index Ratings and Scores

List of Figures

List of Figures

Figure 1: Key Markets, Construction Output Growth Matrix and Risk Matrix

Figure 2: Bulgaria, Construction Projects Pipeline by Sector (BGN Billion)

Figure ...

List of Figures

Figure 1: Key Markets, Construction Output Growth Matrix and Risk Matrix

Figure 2: Bulgaria, Construction Projects Pipeline by Sector (BGN Billion)

Figure 3: Bulgaria, Total gross floor area of residential building permits issued (m2)

Figure 4: Bulgaria, House Prices Index

Figure 5: Bulgaria, Risk Profile

Figure 6: Bulgaria, Risk Comparison

Figure 7: Bulgaria, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ billion, 2017 prices and exchange rate)

Figure 8: Bulgaria, Construction Output Value, Growth Matrix

Figure 9: Bulgaria, Construction Output Value, by Sector (BGN Million), 2014-2023

Figure 10: Bulgaria, Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (BGN Million), 2018-2023

Figure 11: Bulgaria, Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (BGN Million)

Figure 12: Bulgaria, Commercial Construction Output by Project Type (BGN Million), 2014-2023

Figure 13: Bulgaria, Commercial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (BGN Million)

Figure 14: Bulgaria, Commercial Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (BGN Million), 2018-2023

Figure 15: Bulgaria, Industrial Construction Output by Project Type (BGN Million), 2014-2023

Figure 16: Bulgaria, Industrial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (BGN Million)

Figure 17: Bulgaria, Industrial Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (BGN Million), 2018-2023

Figure 18: Bulgaria, Infrastructure Construction Output by Project Type (BGN Million), 2014-2023

Figure 19: Bulgaria, Infrastructure Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (BGN Million)

Figure 20: Bulgaria, Infrastructure Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (BGN Million), 2018-2023

Figure 21: Bulgaria, Energy and Utilities Construction Output by Project Type (BGN Million), 2014-2023

Figure 22: Bulgaria, Energy and Utilities Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (BGN Million)

Figure 23: Bulgaria, Energy and Utilities Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (BGN Million), 2018-2023

Figure 24: Bulgaria, Institutional Construction Output by Project Type (BGN Million), 2014-2023

Figure 25: Bulgaria, Institutional Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (BGN Million)

Figure 26: Bulgaria, Institutional Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (BGN Million), 2018-2023

Figure 27: Bulgaria, Residential Construction Output by Project Type (BGN Million), 2014-2023

Figure 28: Bulgaria, Residential Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (BGN Million)

Figure 29: Bulgaria, Residential Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (BGN Million), 2018-2023

Figure 30: Bulgaria, Headquarters of Key Contractors (% of Total Project Pipeline)

Figure 31: Bulgaria, Headquarters of Foreign Contractors (% of Project Pipeline with Foreign Contractor)

Figure 32: Bulgaria, Headquarters of Key Consultants (% of Total Project Pipeline)

Figure 33: Bulgaria, Headquarters of Foreign Consultants (% of Project Pipeline with Foreign Consultants)

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