Construction in Japan – Key Trends and Opportunities to 2023

Japan’s construction industry registered minimal growth in 2018, with output value expanding by 1.3% in real terms – down from 3.6% in 2017. This low growth can be attributed to the economic slowdown, weak investor confidence and a decline in manufacturing production and exports.

The industry is expected to record a marginal growth of 0.5% in real terms in 2019, due to slow economic growth and dwindling investor confidence, but will then pick up steadily to record an annual average growth of 1.3% during 2020–2023. Over the forecast period (2019–2023), the industry’s growth will be driven by the government’s efforts to enhance transport, commercial and industrial infrastructure construction. Improvements in consumer and investor confidence and positive developments in regional economic conditions will provide growth momentum.

In order to repair the country’s old infrastructure, the government plans to invest JPY3 trillion (US$27 billion) under the new public spending program on infrastructure redevelopment by March 2021. Under this program, the government plans to repair and refurbish 132 projects involving the country’s airports, roads, bridges and power plants, which will support the growth of transport and energy infrastructure over the forecast period. The government’s focus on the development of renewable energy infrastructure is also expected to drive industry growth. Additionally, the country is hosting world sporting events such as the Rugby World Cup in 2019 and the Olympic Games in 2020, which are expected to assist the industry’s output in the early part of the forecast period.

The industry’s output value in real terms is expected to rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.12% over the forecast period, compared to 1.64% during the review period (2014–2018).

GlobalData’s Construction in Japan – Key Trends and Opportunities to 2023 report provides detailed market analysis, information and insights into the Japanese construction industry, including:

- The Japanese construction industry's growth prospects by market, project type and construction activity

- Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, as well as an analysis of key risks and opportunities in the Japanese construction industry

- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, focusing on development stages and participants, in addition to listings of major projects in the pipeline.

Key Highlights

- GlobalData expects the residential construction market to record a forecast-period CAGR of 1.52% in nominal terms, driven by private investments in the high-rise residential building construction projects in the country. In March 2019, Nishi Shinjuku 3 Chome West District Urban Redevelopment Association received government approval to develop two 65-story residential towers in Tokyo. The association plans to invest JPY200 billion (US$1.8 billion) in constructing 3,200 apartments in the two towers by 2030.

- Under the Fifth Basic Energy Plan, the government plans to generate 27% of the total power generation from liquefied natural gas (LNG), 26% from coal, 22–24% through renewable energy, 20–22% from nuclear energy and 3% from oil by 2030; it also aims to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions levels by 26% compared with 2013 levels during the same period; this is expected to drive investment in the energy and utilities construction market over the forecast period.

- GlobalData expects the infrastructure construction market to record a forecast-period CAGR of 3.22% in nominal terms in 2023, driven by the government’s plan to boost public work construction projects in the country. In the first half of 2019, the government announced its plans to develop three rail lines in order to enhance transportation and reduce travelling time connecting Haneda Airport to stations in the capital city Tokyo. The government aims to link the airport to Tokyo, Shinjuku and Shin-Kiba railway stations with an estimated investment of JPY300 billion (US$2.7 billion) by 2029.

- Institutional construction market’s forecast-period growth will be driven by the government’s budget allocation towards social security expenditures. The government increased the social security budget allocation by 3%, going from JPY33 trillion (US$296.4 billion) in FY2018–2019 to JPY34.1 trillion (US$307.6 billion) in FY2019–2020; this is expected to assist the development of new hospitals, health clinics and other medical facilities in the country.

- The total construction project pipeline in Japan – as tracked by GlobalData, and including all mega projects with a value above US$25 million – stands at JPY33.5 trillion (US$300.7 billion). The pipeline, which includes all projects from pre-planning to execution, is skewed towards late-stage projects, with 58.1% of the pipeline value being in projects in the pre-execution and execution stages as of July 2019.

Scope

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Japan. It provides -

- Historical (2014–2018) and forecast (2019–2023) valuations of the construction industry in Japan, featuring details of key growth drivers.

- Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by sub-sector

- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, including breakdowns by development stage across all sectors, and projected spending on projects in the existing pipeline.

- Listings of major projects, in addition to details of leading contractors and consultants

Reasons to buy

- Identify and evaluate market opportunities using GlobalData's standardized valuation and forecasting methodologies.

- Assess market growth potential at a micro-level with over 600 time-series data forecasts.

- Understand the latest industry and market trends.

- Formulate and validate strategy using GlobalData's critical and actionable insight.

- Assess business risks, including cost, regulatory and competitive pressures.

- Evaluate competitive risk and success factors.

Companies mentioned

Table of Contents

Table of contents

1 Executive Summary

2 Construction Outlook: At-a-glance

3 Latest News and Indicators

4 Key Drivers and Risks

4.1. Economic Performance

4.2. Political ...

Table of contents

1 Executive Summary

2 Construction Outlook: At-a-glance

3 Latest News and Indicators

4 Key Drivers and Risks

4.1. Economic Performance

4.2. Political Environment

4.3. Demographics

4.4. Risk Profile

5 Construction Outlook

5.1. All Construction

5.1.1. Outlook

5.1.2. Project analytics

5.2. Commercial Construction

5.2.1. Outlook

5.2.2. Project analytics

5.3. Industrial Construction

5.3.1. Outlook

5.3.2. Project analytics

5.4. Infrastructure Construction

5.4.1. Outlook

5.4.2. Project analytics

5.5. Energy and Utilities Construction

5.5.1. Outlook

5.5.2. Project analytics

5.6. Institutional Construction

5.6.1. Outlook

5.6.2. Project analytics

5.7. Residential Construction

5.7.1. Outlook

5.7.2. Project analytics

6 Key Industry Participants

6.1. Contractors

6.2. Consultants

7 Appendix

7.1. What is this Report About?

7.2. Definitions

8 About GlobalData

8.1. GlobalData at a Glance

8.2. GlobalData Construction

8.3. Disclaimer

8.4. Contact Us

List of Tables

List of Tables

Table 1: Construction Outlook

Table 2: Japan, Key Economic Indicators

Table 3: Japan, Construction Output Value (nominal, JPY Billion)

Table 4: Japan, ...

List of Tables

Table 1: Construction Outlook

Table 2: Japan, Key Economic Indicators

Table 3: Japan, Construction Output Value (nominal, JPY Billion)

Table 4: Japan, Construction Output Value (nominal, US$ Billion)

Table 5: Japan, Top Commercial Construction Projects by Value

Table 6: Japan, Top Industrial Construction Projects by Value

Table 7: Japan, Top Infrastructure Construction Projects by Value

Table 8: Japan, Top Energy and Utilities Construction Projects by Value

Table 9: Japan, Top Institutional Construction Projects by Value

Table 10: Japan, Top Residential and Mixed-Use Construction Projects by Value

Table 11: Japan, Key Contractors

Table 12: Japan, Key Consultants

Table 13: GlobalData Construction Market Definitions

Table 14: Construction Risk Index Ratings and Scores

List of Figures

List of Figures

Figure 1: Key Markets, Construction Output Growth Matrix and Risk Matrix

Figure 2: Japan, Construction Projects Pipeline by Sector (JPY Trillion)

Figure ...

List of Figures

Figure 1: Key Markets, Construction Output Growth Matrix and Risk Matrix

Figure 2: Japan, Construction Projects Pipeline by Sector (JPY Trillion)

Figure 3: Japan, Residential Property Price Index

Figure 4: Japan, Risk Profile

Figure 5: Japan, Risk Comparison

Figure 6: Japan, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ billion, 2017 prices and exchange rate)

Figure 7: Japan, Construction Output Value, Growth Matrix

Figure 8: Japan, Construction Output Value, by Sector (JPY Billion), 2014–2023

Figure 9: Japan, Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (JPY Billion), 2018–2023

Figure 10: Japan, Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (JPY Billion)

Figure 11: Japan, Commercial Construction Output by Project Type (JPY Billion), 2014–2023

Figure 12: Japan, Commercial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (JPY Billion)

Figure 13: Japan, Commercial Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (JPY Billion), 2018–2023

Figure 14: Japan, Industrial Construction Output by Project Type (JPY Billion), 2014–2023

Figure 15: Japan, Industrial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (JPY Billion)

Figure 16: Japan, Industrial Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (JPY Billion), 2018–2023

Figure 17: Japan, Infrastructure Construction Output by Project Type (JPY Billion), 2014–2023

Figure 18: Japan, Infrastructure Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (JPY Billion)

Figure 19: Japan, Infrastructure Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (JPY Billion), 2018–2023

Figure 20: Japan, Energy and Utilities Construction Output by Project Type (JPY Billion), 2014–2023

Figure 21: Japan, Energy and Utilities Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (JPY Billion)

Figure 22: Japan, Energy and Utilities Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (JPY Billion), 2018–2023

Figure 23: Japan, Institutional Construction Output by Project Type (JPY Billion), 2014–2023

Figure 24: Japan, Institutional Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (JPY Billion)

Figure 25: Japan, Institutional Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (JPY Billion), 2018–2023

Figure 26: Japan, Residential Construction Output by Project Type (JPY Billion), 2014–2023

Figure 27: Japan, Residential Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (JPY Billion)

Figure 28: Japan, Residential Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (JPY Billion), 2018–2023

Figure 29: Japan, Headquarters of Key Contractors (% of Total Project Pipeline)

Figure 30: Japan, Headquarters of Foreign Contractors (% of Project Pipeline with Foreign Contractor)

Figure 31: Japan, Headquarters of Key Consultants (% of Total Project Pipeline)

Figure 32: Japan, Headquarters of Foreign Consultants (% of Project Pipeline with Foreign Consultants)

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