Global Risk Report Quarterly Update: Q4 2018

The seventh update version of GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) Q4 2018 ranks Singapore at the top followed by Switzerland and Sweden. 29 countries were identified in the very low risk zone, 36 countries in the low risk zone, 37 countries under manageable risk, 34 countries under high risk and seven countries in the very high risk zone in GCRI Q4 2018.

Scope

Global Risk Report is based on GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.

The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from GlobalData Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, GlobalData analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.

Key Highlights

Asia-Pacific region has the second lowest regional risk after Europe. India, Malaysia and Pakistan registered improvements in their risk score whereas overall risk in Bhutan, Kyrgyzstan and Nepal increased in Q4 2018 over the last update (Q2 2018).

Europe is the lowest risk region in the world. The risk score of the European region witnessed a marginal increase in Q4 2018 on the back of increasing political and economic tensions such as uncertain Brexit, looming economic crisis in Italy, among others. There has been an improvement in the rankings of Romania, Serbia and Iceland whereas overall risk increased in Slovakia, Bosnia and Belarus in GCRI Q4 2018 update.

The risk score of the Americas also increased in Q4 2018 over the previous update in Q2 2018 as a result of vulnerability of Latin American countries such as Venezuela and Argentina. The 35 day government shutdown from December 2018 to January 2019 has caused severe damage to the US economy. Jamaica, Panama, Trinidad and Tobago recorded an improvement in the ranking whereas overall risk in Colombia and Uruguay increased in Q4 2018

The Middle Eastern and African regions also recorded a rise in the risk score in Q4 2018 on the back of heightened geopolitical risks due to scandals regarding Saudi Arabia, sanctions on Iran and a weak economic performance in the region. There has been an improvement in the rankings of Egypt, Algeria and Kuwait whereas overall risk increased in Lebanon, Tanzania and Rwanda in GCRI Q4 2018 update.

Reasons to buy

Global Risk Report is based on GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors.

This report analyzes the risks pertaining to the political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental factors globally. Regional scores and analysis covering Asia Pacific, Europe, Americas and Middle East & Africa are also highlighted in the report.

Current 2018 Q4 risk report highlights the major gainers and losers of the quarter in comparison to previous quarter along with reasons for change. Also, outline the next quarter outlook for these major gainers and losers. In general, this index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 2

1.1 List of Tables 4

1.2 List of Figures 4

2 Flashback (January to June 2018) 6

3 ...

1 Table of Contents 2

1.1 List of Tables 4

1.2 List of Figures 4

2 Flashback (January to June 2018) 6

3 Key Events: January –December 2019 8

4 Global Overview – Summary 9

4.1 Global growth expected to moderate in 2019 9

4.2 Global Overview – Key Highlights 11

5 GCRI – Country Ranking 13

6 GCRI: Global Landscape 2018 15

7 Regional Analysis 16

7.1 Asia Pacific 16

7.1.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 16

7.1.2 Asia Pacific Region - Risk Highlights 16

7.1.3 Political Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 19

7.1.4 Economic Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 20

7.1.5 Economic Outlook: Asia-Pacific 22

7.1.6 Social Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 24

7.1.7 Technology Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 25

7.1.8 Legal Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 26

7.1.9 Environment Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 27

7.2 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q4 2018 28

7.3 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q4 2018 29

7.4 Europe Region 30

7.4.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 30

7.4.2 Europe – Risk Highlights 31

7.4.3 Political Outlook: Europe Region 33

7.4.4 Economic Outlook: Europe 35

7.4.5 Social Outlook: Europe 40

7.4.6 Technology Outlook: Europe Region 41

7.4.7 Legal Outlook: Europe 42

7.4.8 Environment Outlook: Europe Region 43

7.5 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q4 2018 44

7.6 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q4 2018 45

7.7 Americas 46

7.7.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 46

7.7.2 Americas – Risk Highlights 47

7.7.3 Political Outlook: Americas 49

7.7.4 Economic Outlook: Americas 51

7.7.5 Economic Outlook: Americas 53

7.7.6 Social Outlook: Americas 55

7.7.7 Technological Outlook: Americas 56

7.7.8 Legal Outlook: Americas 57

7.7.9 Environment Outlook: Americas 58

7.8 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q4 2018 59

7.9 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q4 2018 60

7.1 Middle East and Africa 61

7.10.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 61

7.10.2 Middle East and Africa – Key Highlights 62

7.10.3 Political Outlook: Middle East and Africa 64

7.10.4 Economic Outlook: Middle East and Africa 66

7.10.5 Social Outlook: Middle East and Africa 69

7.10.6 Technological Outlook: Middle East and Africa 70

7.10.7 Legal Outlook: Middle East and Africa 71

7.10.8 Environment Outlook: Middle East and Africa 72

7.11 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q4 2018 73

7.12 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q4 2018 74

8 Methodology and Appendix 75

8.1 Country Ranking and Scores 75

8.1.1 Asia Pacific 75

8.1.2 Europe 76

8.1.3 Americas 77

8.1.4 Middle East and Africa 78

8.2 GCRI – Methodology and Sources 79

8.2.1 Snapshot of Methodology 79

8.2.2 Secondary sources 80

8.3 Contact Us 82

8.4 Disclaimer 82

List of Tables

Table 1: Asia Pacific Region - Risk Highlights 18

Table 2: Key Economic Variables – Asia-Pacific 22

Table 3: Europe – Risk Highlights 32

Table 4: Key Economic ...

Table 1: Asia Pacific Region - Risk Highlights 18

Table 2: Key Economic Variables – Asia-Pacific 22

Table 3: Europe – Risk Highlights 32

Table 4: Key Economic Variables – Europe Region 36

Table 5: Americas – Risk Highlights 48

Table 6: Key Economic Variables – Americas 52

Table 7: Middle East and Africa – Key Highlights 63

Table 8: Key Economic Variables 67

Table 9: GCRI – Methodology and Sources 81

List of Figures

Figure 1: Flashback (January to June 2018) (1/2) 6

Figure 2: Flashback (January to June 2018) (2/2) 7

Figure 3: Key Events: January ...

Figure 1: Flashback (January to June 2018) (1/2) 6

Figure 2: Flashback (January to June 2018) (2/2) 7

Figure 3: Key Events: January –December 2019 8

Figure 4: Global Growth and Inflation 9

Figure 5: Risk movement Q1 2017 to Q4 2018 10

Figure 6: GCRI – Global Risk Heat Map 13

Figure 7: Global Risk Score – Q4 2018 14

Figure 8: Global Risk – At a Glance 15

Figure 9: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 16

Figure 10: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2018 17

Figure 11: Regional Risk Scores: Q4 2018 18

Figure 12: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in Asia-Pacific 19

Figure 13: Nations with Highest Political Risk in Asia-Pacific 19

Figure 14: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in Asia-Pacific 20

Figure 15: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in Asia-Pacific 21

Figure 16: Real GDP Growth Rate – Key Asia-Pacific Nations 22

Figure 17: Key Regional Indices 23

Figure 18: China’s Debt Reached 253.0% of GDP in Q2 2018 23

Figure 19: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in Asia-Pacific 24

Figure 20: Nations with Highest Social Risk in Asia-Pacific 24

Figure 21: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Asia-Pacific 25

Figure 22: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in Asia-Pacific 25

Figure 23: Nations with lowest legal risk in Asia-Pacific 26

Figure 24: Nations with highest legal risk in Asia-Pacific 26

Figure 25: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in Asia-Pacific 27

Figure 26: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in Asia-Pacific 27

Figure 27: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 30

Figure 28: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2018 31

Figure 29: Regional Risk Scores: Q4 2018 32

Figure 30: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in Europe 33

Figure 31: Nations with Highest Political Risk in Europe 33

Figure 32: Euro Sentiments In Europe, November 2018 34

Figure 33: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in Europe 35

Figure 34: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in Europe 35

Figure 35: Market Sentiments in Euro Area 36

Figure 36: Real GDP Growth Rate – Key European Nation 37

Figure 37: Key Regional Indices 38

Figure 38: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Europe 40

Figure 39: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Europe 40

Figure 40: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Europe 41

Figure 41: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in Europe 41

Figure 42: Nations with Lowest Legal Risk in Europe 42

Figure 43: Nations with Highest Legal Risk in Europe 42

Figure 44: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in Europe 43

Figure 45: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in Europe 43

Figure 46: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 46

Figure 47: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2018 47

Figure 48: Regional Risk Scores: Q4 2018 48

Figure 49: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in Americas 49

Figure 50: Nations with Highest Political Risk in Americas 49

Figure 51: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in Americas 51

Figure 52: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in Americas 51

Figure 53: Real GDP Growth Rate – Key American Nations 52

Figure 54: Key Regional Indices 54

Figure 55: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in Americas 55

Figure 56: Nations with Highest Social Risk in Americas 55

Figure 57: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Americas 56

Figure 58: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in Americas 56

Figure 59: Nations with Lowest Legal Risk in Americas 57

Figure 60: Nations with Highest Legal Risk in Americas 57

Figure 61: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in Americas 58

Figure 62: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in Americas 58

Figure 63: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 61

Figure 64: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2017 62

Figure 65: Regional Risk Scores: Q4 2018 63

Figure 66: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in MEA 64

Figure 67: Nations with Highest Political Risk in MEA 64

Figure 68: Key highlights 65

Figure 69: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in MEA 66

Figure 70: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in MEA 66

Figure 71: Real GDP Growth Rate – Key Nations in MEA 68

Figure 72: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in MEA 69

Figure 73: Nations with Highest Social Risk in MEA 69

Figure 74: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in MEA 70

Figure 75: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in MEA 70

Figure 76: Nations with Lowest Legal Risk in MEA 71

Figure 77: Nations with Highest Legal Risk in MEA 71

Figure 78: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in MEA 72

Figure 79: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in MEA 72

Figure 80: Country Ranking and Scores, Asia Pacific 75

Figure 81: Country Ranking and Scores, Europe 76

Figure 82: Country Ranking and Scores, Americas 77

Figure 83: Country Ranking and Scores, Middle East and Africa 78

Figure 84: Broad Categories and Weights Behind the Index 80

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