Prostate Cancer: Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2028

The prostate cancer market in the 8 major markets (8MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and China) is expected to experience a moderate growth between 2018 and 2018. The main drivers of growth will be an aging population, continued uptake of second-generation hormonal agents in the metastatic hormone naïve (mHNPC) and non-metastatic castration resistant (nmCRPC) prostate cancer settings, and the launch and uptake of 13 new premium-priced therapies, including the newly approved Nubeqa (darolutamide).

Until recently, the hormone sensitive setting has been dominated by the use of cheaper first-generation hormonal agents, with the use of premium-priced second-generation hormonal agents (Xtandi and Zytiga) limited to metastatic CRPC. The prostate cancer competitive landscape is experiencing a substantial change. Given that Zytiga and Xtandi are limited by the insurgence of acquired resistance, physicians will face the critical issue of determining the best treatment sequence for subsequent lines of therapy, most notably in the mCRPC setting. Additionally, companies are now moving toward a more personalized approach in prostate cancer, targeting mCRPC patients with specific genetic signatures, such as PTEN loss and DNA repair abnormalities. GlobalData expects these biomarker-driven drug development strategies to induce further patient stratification and to add complexity to the CRPC treatment algorithm.

Scope

Overview of prostate cancer, including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and disease management.

Annualized prostate cancer therapeutics market revenue, cost of therapy per patient, and treatment usage patterns in seven patient segments, forecast from 2018 to 2028.

Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping and implications for the prostate cancer therapeutics market.

Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data assessing emerging trends and mechanisms of action under development for prostate cancer. The most promising candidates in Phase III development are profiled.

Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global prostate cancer market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.

Key Highlights

The main driver of the growth of the prostate cancer market will be the continued uptake of second-generation hormonal agents into mHNPC and nmCRPC, where the extended treatment duration will drive overall sales. The second strongest driver will be the increasing number of incident cases.

To gain approval and obtain reimbursement, it is essential for pipeline drugs to demonstrate greater efficacy (overall survival) compared with available agents. For this reason, agents positioned as first-line mCRPC treatments are being investigated in combination with second-generation hormonal agents, the current standard of care (SOC), to limit the “standard-of-care hurdle“. The earlier use of these agents in the hormone-sensitive disease may negatively affect the uptake of this combination in the later line of treatment, mCRPC.

Due to concerns related to the high annual cost of therapy, GlobalData expects heavy generic erosion of Zytiga when abiraterone generics launch, starting in 2018.

Reasons to buy

The report will enable you to:

Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.

Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global prostate cancer market.

Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global prostate cancer market in the future.

Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.

Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.

Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.

Companies mentioned

AbbVie

Advanced Accelerator Applications

Advantagene

Allergan

Astellas

AstraZeneca

Bayer

Clovis Oncology

Dendreon

Endo Pharmaceuticals

Endocyte

Ferring Pharmaceuticals

Genzyme

GlaxoSmithKline

Hinova

Ipsen

Janssen/J&J

Merck & Co. ...

AbbVie

Advanced Accelerator Applications

Advantagene

Allergan

Astellas

AstraZeneca

Bayer

Clovis Oncology

Dendreon

Endo Pharmaceuticals

Endocyte

Ferring Pharmaceuticals

Genzyme

GlaxoSmithKline

Hinova

Ipsen

Janssen/J&J

Merck & Co.

Myovant Sciences

Novartis

Orion

Pfizer

Roche

Sanofi

Sotio

Takeda

TerSera Therapeutics

Tesaro

Tolmar

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents

1.1 List of Tables

1.2 List of Figures

2 Prostate Cancer: Executive Summary

2.1 Prostate Cancer Market Expected to Increase Despite ...

1 Table of Contents

1.1 List of Tables

1.2 List of Figures

2 Prostate Cancer: Executive Summary

2.1 Prostate Cancer Market Expected to Increase Despite Generic Abiraterone Entry

2.2 Big Pharma Brands Enter the Prostate Cancer Market Using Combination Strategies for mCRPC

2.3 Unmet Need Will Remain for the Identification of New Targets and Biomarkers of Response

2.4 Prostate Cancer Pipeline Moving Towards Precision Medicine

2.5 What Do the Physicians Think?

3 Introduction

3.1 Catalyst

3.2 Related Reports

3.3 Upcoming Related Reports

4 Disease Overview

4.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology

4.1.1 Etiology

4.1.2 Pathophysiology

4.1.3 Biomarkers

4.2 Classification or Staging Systems

5 Epidemiology

5.1 Disease Background

5.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities

5.3 Global and Historical Trends

5.4 Forecast Methodology

5.4.1 Sources

5.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods, Population

5.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Prostate Cancer

5.4.4 Forecast Assumptions and Methods, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Prostate Cancer by Gleason Scores

5.4.5 Forecast Assumptions and Methods, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Prostate Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis

5.4.6 Forecast Assumptions and Methods, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Prostate Cancer by Risk Category

5.4.7 Forecast Assumptions and Methods, Metastatic Cases at Diagnosis

5.4.8 Forecast Assumptions and Methods, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Prostate Cancer

5.4.9 Forecast Assumptions and Methods, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Metastatic and Non-Metastatic) that Progress from Hormone-Sensitive Disease to CRPC by Status

5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Prostate Cancer (2018–2028)

5.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Prostate Cancer

5.5.2 Age-Specific Incident Cases of Prostate Cancer

5.5.3 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Prostate Cancer by Gleason Score

5.5.4 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Prostate Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis

5.5.5 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Prostate Cancer by Risk Category

5.5.6 Metastatic Cases at Diagnosis

5.5.7 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Prostate Cancer

5.5.8 Diagnosed Five-Year Prevalent Cases of Prostate Cancer that Progress from Hormone-Sensitive Disease to CRPC by Status

5.6 Discussion

5.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight

5.6.2 Limitations of Analysis

5.6.3 Strengths of Analysis

6 Disease Management

6.1 Diagnosis and Treatment Overview

6.2 Treatment Overview

6.2.1 Treatment Guidelines and Leading Prescribed Drugs

6.2.2 Clinical Practice

6.3 US

6.4 France

6.5 Germany

6.6 Italy

6.7 Spain

6.8 UK

6.9 Japan

6.10 China

7 Competitive Assessment

7.1 Overview

8 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment

8.1 Overview

8.2 Therapies with a Durable OS Benefit or Cure for mCRPC

8.3 Identification of New Targets and Positive Predictive Biomarkers of Response

8.4 Advancements in the Detection and Treatment of Drug Resistance

8.5 Therapeutic Options for nmCRPC

9 Pipeline Assessment

9.1 Overview

9.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development

10 Current and Future Players

10.1 Overview

10.2 Trends in Corporate Strategy

10.3 Company Profiles

10.3.1 Johnson & Johnson

10.3.2 Astellas

10.3.3 AstraZeneca

10.3.4 Bayer

10.3.5 Clovis Oncology

10.3.6 Merck

10.3.7 Novartis

10.3.8 Pfizer

10.3.9 Roche

10.3.10 Sanofi

11 Market Outlook

11.1 Global Markets

11.1.1 Forecast

11.1.2 Drivers and Barriers – Global Issues

11.2 US

11.2.1 Forecast

11.2.2 Key Events

11.2.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.3 5EU

11.3.1 Forecast

11.3.2 Key Events

11.3.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.4 Japan

11.4.1 Forecast

11.4.2 Key Events

11.4.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.5 China (Urban)

11.5.1 Forecast

11.5.2 Key Events

11.5.3 Drivers and Barriers

12 Appendix

12.1 Bibliography

12.2 Abbreviations

12.3 Methodology

12.3.1 Forecasting Methodology

12.3.2 Diagnosed Prostate Cancer Patients

12.3.3 Percent Drug-Treated Patients

12.3.4 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class

12.3.5 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates

12.3.6 General Pricing Assumptions

12.3.7 Pricing of Pipeline Agents

12.3.8 Individual Drug Assumptions

12.3.9 Generic Erosion

12.4 Primary Research – KOLs Interviewed for This Report

12.5 Primary Research – Prescriber Survey

12.6 About the Authors

12.6.1 Analyst

12.6.2 Therapy Area Director

12.6.3 Epidemiologist

12.6.4 Epidemiology Reviewers

12.6.5 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

12.6.6 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy

12.7 About GlobalData

12.8 Contact Us

12.9 Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Prostate Cancer: Key Metrics in Eight Major Pharmaceutical Markets

Table 2: Stage Definitions for PCa

Table 3: NCCN Risk-Category Classification System for PCa ...

Table 1: Prostate Cancer: Key Metrics in Eight Major Pharmaceutical Markets

Table 2: Stage Definitions for PCa

Table 3: NCCN Risk-Category Classification System for PCa

Table 4: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Prostate Cancer

Table 5: AJCC Staging of Prostate Cancer

Table 6: Treatment Guidelines for Prostate Cancer

Table 7: Country Profile – US

Table 8: Country Profile – France

Table 9: Country Profile – Germany

Table 10: Country Profile – Italy

Table 11: Country Profile – Spain

Table 12: Country Profile – UK

Table 13: Country Profile – Japan

Table 14: Country Profile – China

Table 15: Leading Branded Treatment for PCa, 2019

Table 16: Key Companies in the PCa Market in the 8MM, 2018–2028

Table 17: J&J’s PCa Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 18: Astellas’ PCa Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 19: AstraZeneca’s PCa Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 20: Bayer’s PCa Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 21: Clovis Oncology’s PCa Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 22: Merck’s PCa Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 23: Novartis’ PCa Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 24: Pfizer’s PCa Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 25: Roche’s PCa Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 26: Sanofi’s PCa Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 27: Prostate Cancer Market – Global Drivers and Barriers, 2018–2028

Table 28: Key Events Impacting Sales for Prostate Cancer in the US, 2018–2028

Table 29: Prostate Cancer Market –Drivers and Barriers in the US, 2018–2028

Table 30: Key Events Impacting Sales for Prostate Cancer in the 5EU, 2018–2028

Table 31: Prostate Cancer Market – Drivers and Barriers in the 5EU, 2018–2028

Table 32: Prostate Cancer Market in the 5EU – Country-Specific Barriers in the 5EU, 2018–2028

Table 33: Key Events Impacting Sales for Prostate Cancer in Japan, 2018–2028

Table 34: Prostate Cancer Market – Drivers and Barriers in Japan, 2018–2028

Table 35: Key Events Impacting Sales for Prostate Cancer in China, 2018–2028

Table 36: Prostate Cancer Market – Drivers and Barriers in China, 2018–2028

Table 37: Key Historical and Projected Launch Dates for Prostate Cancer

Table 38: Key Projected Patent Expiry/Market Exclusivity Dates for Prostate Cancer

Table 39: Average Body BSA Across the 8MM

Table 40: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, by Country and Specialty

List of Figures

Figure 1: Global Sales Forecast by Country for Prostate Cancer in 2018 and 2028

Figure 2: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in Prostate Cancer ...

Figure 1: Global Sales Forecast by Country for Prostate Cancer in 2018 and 2028

Figure 2: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in Prostate Cancer During the Forecast Period, 2018–2028

Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in Prostate Cancer, 2018–2028

Figure 4: 8MM, Diagnosed Incidence of Prostate Cancer, Men, Ages ≥30 Years, 2008–2028

Figure 5: 8MM, Sources Used, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Prostate Cancer

Figure 6: 8MM, Sources Used, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Prostate Cancer by Gleason Scores

Figure 7: 8MM, Sources Used, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Prostate Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis

Figure 8: 8MM, Sources Used, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Prostate Cancer by Risk Category

Figure 9: 8MM, Sources Used, Metastatic Cases at Diagnosis

Figure 10: 8MM, Sources Used, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Prostate Cancer

Figure 11: 8MM, Sources Used, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Prostate Cancer by Progression from Hormone-Sensitive Disease to CRPC

Figure 12: 8MM, Sources Used, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Prostate Cancer by Progression from Hormone-Sensitive Disease to CRPC by Status

Figure 13: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Prostate Cancer, Ages ≥30 Years, Men, N, 2018

Figure 14: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Prostate Cancer, Men, N, 2018

Figure 15: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Prostate Cancer by Gleason Score, Ages ≥30 Years, Men, N, 2018

Figure 16: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Prostate Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis, Ages ≥30 Years, Men, N, 2018

Figure 17: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Prostate Cancer by Risk Category, Ages ≥30 Years, Men, N, 2018

Figure 18: 8MM, Metastatic Cases at Diagnosis, Ages ≥30 Years, Men, N, 2018

Figure 19: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Prostate Cancer, Ages ≥30 Years, Men, N, 2018

Figure 20: 8MM, Diagnosed Five-Year Prevalent Cases of Prostate Cancer that Progress from Hormone-Sensitive Disease to CRPC by Status, Ages ≥30 Years, Men, N, 2018

Figure 21: Treatment Algorithm for Localized Prostate Cancer

Figure 22: Treatment Algorithm for Progressive and Advanced Prostate Cancer

Figure 23: Overview of the Unmet Need and Opportunity in Prostate Cancer, 2019

Figure 24: Overview of the Development Pipeline in PCa

Figure 25: Pivotal Phase II/III Trials for the Promising PCa Pipeline Agents

Figure 26: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to Be Licensed for the Treatment of PCa During the Forecast Period

Figure 27: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in PCa During the Forecast Period

Figure 28: Global (8MM) Sales Forecast by Country for Prostate Cancer in 2018 and 2028

Figure 29: Global (8MM) Sales Forecast by Drug Class for Prostate Cancer in 2018 and 2028

Figure 30: Sales Forecast by Class for Prostate Cancer in the US in 2018 and 2028

Figure 31: Sales Forecast by Class for Prostate Cancer in the 5EU in 2018 and 2028

Figure 32: Sales Forecast by Class for Prostate Cancer in Japan in 2018 and 2028

Figure 33: Sales Forecast by Class for Prostate Cancer in China in 2018 and 2028

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