EpiCast Report: Seasonal Influenza – Epidemiology Forecast to 2025

Influenza, commonly known as the flu, is a contagious respiratory illness caused by influenza viruses resulting in mild to severe influenza-like illness. Seasonal influenza affects persons of all ages. Each year, between 5% and 15% of the world's population is affected by seasonal influenza (WHO, 2013). Complications of influenza include pneumonia, bronchitis, ear infections, sinus infections, and worsening of chronic medical conditions such as congestive heart failure, asthma, or diabetes. Vaccination has been shown to reduce influenza morbidity and mortality and high economic burden associated with influenza illness.

GlobalData epidemiologists identified country-specific population-based studies and government-collated surveillance data to build the influenza forecast, and utilized appropriate proxy data where applicable. Moreover, clinically relevant segmentations are provided for diagnosed incident cases of seasonal influenza, including influenza-like illness (ILI) cases, lab confirmed cases, hospitalized cases, and averted cases. Lastly, uniform diagnostic criteria are utilized for all segmentations across the 7MM using ICD-10 codes J09-J10, and seasonal versus calendar year influenza cases were reconciled, for example, by applying rates from the 2007-2008 influenza season to the 2007 calendar year population.

In the 7MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the seasonal influenza vaccination coverage will increase from 323,457,073 people in 2015 to 344,202,999 people in 2025, at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 0.64%. The US will have the largest population vaccinated for seasonal influenza among the 7MM throughout the forecast period, while Spain will have the lowest. In the 7MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed outpatient ILI incident cases will increase from 38,432,598 cases in 2015 to 38,686,403 cases in 2025, at an AGR of 0.07%. GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the influenza cases averted by seasonal influenza vaccinations will increase from 1,801,663 cases in 2015 to 1,858,033 cases in 2025.

Scope

The Seasonal Influenza EpiCast Report and EpiCast Model provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical trends for seasonal influenza in the seven major markets (7MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed incident cases of seasonal influenza segmented by age and sex in the 7MM. Moreover, clinically relevant segmentations are provided for diagnosed incident cases of seasonal influenza, including influenza-like illness (ILI) cases, lab confirmed cases, hospitalized cases, and averted cases. In addition, the report also includes the number of individuals who received the influenza vaccination in the 7MM. For all the 7MM, diagnosed incident cases are segmented by age (0–4 years, 5–17 years, 18–64 years, and =65 years) and sex.

The seasonal influenza epidemiology report and model were written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.

The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 8MM.

The EpiCast Model is easy to navigate, interactive with dashboards, and epidemiology-based with transparent and consistent methodologies. Moreover, the model supports data presented in the report and showcases disease trends over a 10-year forecast period using reputable sources.

Table of Contents

1Table of Contents

1.1List of Tables

1.2List of Figures

2Epidemiology

2.1Disease Background

2.2Risk Factors and Comorbidities

2.3Global Trends

2.3 ...

1Table of Contents

1.1List of Tables

1.2List of Figures

2Epidemiology

2.1Disease Background

2.2Risk Factors and Comorbidities

2.3Global Trends

2.3.1Historical Perspective of Vaccination Coverage

2.3.2Laboratory Confirmed Influenza Cases

2.3.3Hospitalization Due to Influenza

2.3.4Influenza Averted Cases

2.4Forecast Methodology

2.4.1Sources Used Tables

2.4.2Forecast Assumptions and Methods

2.4.3Sources Not Used

2.5Epidemiological Forecast for Seasonal Influenza (2015–2025)

2.5.1Seasonal Influenza Vaccination

2.5.2Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Rates

2.5.3Diagnosed Outpatient Influenza-Like Illness Incident Cases

2.5.4Lab Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza

2.5.5Influenza-Related Hospitalized Incident Cases

2.5.6Cases Averted by Seasonal Influenza Vaccinations

2.6Discussion

2.6.1Epidemiological Forecast Insight

2.6.2Limitations of the Analysis

2.6.3Strengths of the Analysis

3Appendix

3.1Bibliography

3.2About the Authors

3.2.1Epidemiologists

3.2.2Reviewers

3.2.3Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

3.3About GlobalData

3.4About EpiCast

3.5Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Seasonal Influenza

Table 2: 7MM, Historical Perspective of Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Coverage

Table 3: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological ...

Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Seasonal Influenza

Table 2: 7MM, Historical Perspective of Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Coverage

Table 3: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Total Population Vaccination Rates of Seasonal Influenza

Table 4: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Diagnosed Incident Cases of Outpatient Seasonal ILI

Table 5: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Laboratory Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza

Table 6: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Seasonal Influenza-Related Hospitalized Incident Cases

Table 7: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Averted Cases of Seasonal Influenza

Table 8: 7MM, Sources Not Used in Epidemiological Analysis of Seasonal Influenza

Table 9: 7MM, People Receiving Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015–2025

Table 10: 7MM, Age-Specific Distribution of People Receiving Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015

Table 11: 7MM, Sex-Specific Distribution of People Receiving Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015

Table 12: 7MM, Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Rates, All Ages, Both Sexes, %, Selected Years 2015–2025

Table 13: 7MM, Age-Specific Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Rates, Both Sexes, (%), 2015

Table 14: 7MM, Diagnosed Outpatient ILI Incident Cases, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015–2025

Table 15: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Outpatient ILI Incident Cases, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015

Table 16: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Outpatient ILI Incident Cases, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015

Table 17: 7MM, Lab Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015–2025

Table 18: 7MM, Age-Specific Lab Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015

Table 19: 7MM, Lab Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015

Table 20: 7MM, Influenza-Related Hospitalized Incident Cases, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015–2025

Table 21: 7MM, Age-Specific Influenza-Related Hospitalized Incident Cases, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015

Table 22: 7MM, Influenza Related Hospitalized Incident Cases, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015

Table 23: 7MM, Cases Averted by Seasonal Influenza Vaccinations, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015–2025

Table 24: 7MM, Age-Specific Cases Averted by Seasonal Influenza Vaccinations, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015

List of Figures

Figure 1: 7MM, Cases with Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, 2015–2025

Figure 2: 7MM, Age-Specific Cases with Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, Both ...

Figure 1: 7MM, Cases with Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, 2015–2025

Figure 2: 7MM, Age-Specific Cases with Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, Both Sexes, N, 2015

Figure 3: 7MM, Sex-Specific Distribution of People Receiving Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, All Ages, N, 2015

Figure 4: 7MM, Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Rates, All Ages, Both Sexes, %, 2015–2025

Figure 5: 7MM, Age-Specific Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Rates, Both Sexes, (%), 2015

Figure 6: 7MM, Diagnosed Outpatient ILI Incident Cases, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015–2025

Figure 7: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Outpatient ILI Incident Cases, Both Sexes, N, 2015

Figure 8: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Outpatient ILI Incident Cases, All Ages, N, 2015

Figure 9: 7MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Outpatient ILI Incidence, All Ages, Cases per 100,000 Population, 2015

Figure 10: 7MM, Lab Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015–2025

Figure 11: 7MM, Age-Specific Lab Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza, Both Sexes, N, 2015

Figure 12: 7MM, Lab Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza, All Ages, N, 2015

Figure 13: 7MM, Influenza-Related Hospitalized Incident Cases, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015–2025

Figure 14: 7MM, Age-Specific Influenza-Related Hospitalized Incident Cases, Both Sexes, N, 2015

Figure 15: 7MM, Influenza-Related Hospitalized Incident Cases, All Ages, N, 2015

Figure 16: 7MM, Cases Averted by Seasonal Influenza Vaccinations, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015–2025

Figure 17: 7MM, Age-Specific Cases Averted by Seasonal Influenza Vaccinations, Both Sexes, N, 2015

    Pricing

Discounts available for multiple report purchases.

reportstore@globaldata.com
+44 (0) 161 359 5813

Saved reports