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EpiCast Report: Breast Cancer (HER2+, HER2-) – Epidemiology Forecast to 2025

Breast cancer is a malignant tumor that originates in the breast tissues. Most breast cancers are invasive tumors that have grown beyond the ducts or lobules of the breast and can metastasize to other parts of the body through the bloodstream and the lymphatic system. Invasive breast cancer in this analysis is defined as ICD-10 codes C50.0-50.9, while non-invasive DCIS breast cancer is defined as ICD-10 code D05.1; both types of breast cancer are based on country-specific, nationally representative sources. Uniform diagnostic criteria are used for all segmentations across the 8MM, where a breast biopsy was used to confirm cases of breast cancer. In addition, comparable staging criteria by the AJCC (American Joint Committee on Cancer) and UICC (Union for International Cancer Control) were applied across all 8MM.

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed incident cases of invasive breast cancer (not including DCIS) in the 8MM for women will grow by an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 1.94% over the next 10 years, from 795,114 cases in 2015 to 949,161 cases in 2025. In 2015, the 60-69 year age group had the highest number of diagnosed incident cases of invasive breast cancer, contributing 195,701 (24.61%) cases of the total in the 8MM. Overall, the majority of diagnosed incident cases of breast cancer occurred in ages 40 years and older, accounting for 95.48% of all cases in the 8MM in 2015. The 8MM will see an increase in five-year diagnosed prevalent cases throughout the forecast period at an AGR of 2.39%, with 3,549,784 cases in 2015 and 4,399,243 in 2025. For HER2 status of diagnosed incident cases of invasive breast cancer in the 8MM throughout the forecast period, 17.53% of cases were HER2+, 68.07% were HER2-/HR+, and 14.40% were TN.

GlobalData epidemiologists utilized comprehensive, country-specific data from national breast cancer registries and peer-reviewed journal articles when available, to arrive at a meaningful, in-depth analysis and forecast for the diagnosed incident and five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of breast cancer. In this analysis, GlobalData epidemiologists provide detailed, clinically relevant segmentations for diagnosed incident cases of breast cancer.

Scope

The Breast Cancer EpiCast Report and EpiCast Model provide an overview of the risk factors and global trends of NSCLC in the 8MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and urban China). This report includes a forecast of non-invasive ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) breast cancer cases segmented by HER2 status. In addition, it includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed incident cases and the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive breast cancer in women segmented by age (18 to 85 years and older) and HER2 status (HER2+/hormone receptor [HR]+, HER2+/HR-, HER2-/HR+, and HER2-/HR- triple negative [TN]). HER2+ invasive breast cancer cases are further segmented by stage at diagnosis, menopausal status, and site of metastasis; HER2-/HR+ invasive breast cancer cases are further segmented by stage at diagnosis, menopausal status, and biomarker expression; and TN invasive breast cancer cases are further segmented by stage at diagnosis and BRCA expression.

The breast cancer epidemiology report and model were written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.

The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 8MM.

The EpiCast Model is easy to navigate, interactive with dashboards, and epidemiology-based with transparent and consistent methodologies. Moreover, the model supports data presented in the report and showcases disease trends over a 10-year forecast period using reputable sources.

Table of Contents

1Table of Contents

1.1List of Tables

1.2List of Figures

2Epidemiology

2.1Disease Background

2.2Risk Factors and Comorbidities

2.3Global Trends

2.3.1US

2.3.25EU

2.3.3Japan

2.3.4China (Urban)

2.3.5Prevalence and Survival

2.4Forecast Methodology

2.4.1Sources Used Tables

2.4.2Forecast Assumptions and Methods

2.4.3Sources Not Used

2.5Epidemiological Forecast for Non-Invasive DCIS Breast Cancer (2015–2025)

2.5.1Diagnosed Incident Cases of Non-Invasive DCIS Breast Cancer

2.5.2Diagnosed Incident Cases of Non-Invasive DCIS Breast Cancer by HER2 Status

2.6Epidemiological Forecast for Invasive Breast Cancer (2015–2025)

2.6.1Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer

2.6.2Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer

2.6.3Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence of Invasive Breast Cancer

2.6.4Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer

2.6.5Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis

2.6.6Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer by HER2 Status

2.6.7Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+ Invasive Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis, Menopausal Status, and Site of Metastasis

2.6.8Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2-/HR+ Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis, Menopausal Status, and Type of Biomarker Expression

2.6.9Diagnosed Incident Cases of TN Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis and BRCA Expression

2.7Discussion

2.7.1Epidemiological Forecast Insight

2.7.2Limitations of the Analysis

2.7.3Strengths of the Analysis

3Appendix

3.1Bibliography

3.2About the Authors

3.2.1Epidemiologists

3.2.2Reviewers

3.2.3Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

3.3About GlobalData

3.4About EpiCast

3.5Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Breast Cancer

Table 2: 8MM, Most Recent Five-Year Relative Survival for Invasive Breast Cancer, Women (%)

Table 3: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Diagnosed Incidence of Non-Invasive DCIS Breast Cancer

Table 4: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Diagnosed Incident Cases of Non-Invasive DCIS Breast Cancer by HER2 Status

Table 5: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Diagnosed Incidence of Invasive Breast Cancer

Table 6: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Invasive Breast Cancer by HER2 Status

Table 7: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast the Relative Survival of Invasive Breast Cancer

Table 8: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast HER2+ Invasive Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis

Table 9: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast HER2-, HR+ Invasive Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis

Table 10: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast TN Invasive Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis

Table 11: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast HER2-Specific Invasive Breast Cancer by Menopausal Status

Table 12: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast HER2+ Invasive Breast Cancer by Site of Metastasis

Table 13: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast HER2-Specific Invasive Breast Cancer by Type of Biomarker Expression

Table 14: 8MM, Sources Not Used in Epidemiological Analysis of Breast Cancer

Table 15: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Non-Invasive DCIS Breast Cancer, Women, Ages =18 Years, N, Select Years, 2015–2025

Table 16: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Non-Invasive DCIS Breast Cancer by HER2 Status, Women, Ages =18 Years, N, 2015

Table 17: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer, Women, Ages =18 Years, N, Select Years, 2015–2025

Table 18: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer, Women, Ages =18 Years, N (Row %), 2015

Table 19: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer, Women, Ages =18 Years, N, Select Years, 2015–2025

Table 20: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis, Women, Ages =18 Years, N, 2015

Table 21: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer by HER2 Status, Women, Ages =18 Years, N, 2015

List of Figures

Figure 1: 8MM, Crude Diagnosed Incidence Rates of Invasive Breast Cancer, Ages =18 Years, Women, Cases per 100,000 Population, 2005?2014

Figure 2: Case Flow Map

Figure 3: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Non-Invasive DCIS Breast Cancer, Women, Ages =18 Years, Selected Years, 2015–2025

Figure 4: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Non-Invasive DCIS Breast Cancer by HER2 Status, Women, Ages =18 Years, 2015

Figure 5: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer, Women, Ages =18 Years, Selected Years, 2015–2025

Figure 6: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer, Women, Ages =18 Years, N, 2015

Figure 7: 8MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer, Women, Ages =18 Years, N, 2015

Figure 8: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer, Women, Ages =18 Years, Select Years, 2015–2025

Figure 9: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis, Women, Ages =18 Years, 2015

Figure 10: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer by HER2 Status, Women, Ages =18 Years, 2015

Figure 11: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+ Invasive Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis, Women, Ages =18 Years, 2015

Figure 12: 8MM, Proportion of HER2+/HR+ Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer by Menopausal Status, Women, Ages =18 Years, 2015

Figure 13: 8MM, Proportion of HER2+/HR- Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer by Menopausal Status, Women, Ages =18 Years, 2015

Figure 14: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2+ Invasive Breast Cancer by Site of Metastasis, Women, Ages =18 Years, 2015

Figure 15: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2-/HR+ Invasive Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis, Women, Ages =18 Years, 2015

Figure 16: 8MM, Proportion of HER2-/HR+ Diagnosed Incident Cases of Invasive Breast Cancer by Menopausal Status, Women, Ages =18 Years, 2015

Figure 17: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HER2-/HR+ Invasive Breast Cancer by Type of Biomarker Expression, Women, Ages =18 Years, 2015

Figure 18: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of TN Invasive Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis, Women, Ages =18 Years, 2015

Figure 19: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of TN Invasive Breast Cancer with BRCA Expression, Women, Ages =18 Years, 2015

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