South Africa Power Market Outlook to 2030, Update 2018 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape

This report elaborates South Africa's power market structure and provides historical and forecast numbers for capacity, generation, and consumption up to 2030. Detailed analysis of the South African power market’s regulatory structure, import and export trends, competitive landscape, and power projects at various stages of the supply chain is provided. The report also gives a snapshot of the power sector in South Africa on broad parameters of macroeconomics, supply security, generation infrastructure, transmission infrastructure, degree of competition, regulatory scenario, and future potential. An analysis of the deals market scenario in the country’s power sector is also included in the report.

Scope

Snapshot of the country’s power sector across parameters - macro economics, supply security, generation infrastructure, transmission infrastructure, degree of competition, regulatory scenario and future potential of the power sector.

Statistics for installed capacity, power generation and consumption from 2000 to 2017, forecast for the next 13 years to 2030

Break-up by technology, including thermal, hydro, renewable and nuclear

Data on leading current and upcoming projects

Information on grid interconnectivity, transmission and distribution infrastructure and power exports and imports

Policy and regulatory framework governing the market

Detailed analysis of top market participant, including market share analysis and SWOT analysis.

Key Highlights

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Reasons to buy

Identify opportunities and plan strategies by having a strong understanding of the investment opportunities in the country’s power sector

Identification of key factors driving investment opportunities in the country’s power sector

Facilitate decision-making based on strong historic and forecast data

Develop strategies based on the latest regulatory events

Position yourself to gain the maximum advantage of the industry’s growth potential

Identify key partners and business development avenues

Identify key strengths and weaknesses of important market participants

Respond to your competitors’ business structure, strategy and prospects.

Companies mentioned

Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd;

Enel SpA

Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd;

Enel SpA

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 1

1.1 List of Tables 4

1.2 List of Figures 5

2 Executive Summary 6 ...

1 Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 1

1.1 List of Tables 4

1.2 List of Figures 5

2 Executive Summary 6

2.1 South Africa, Power Sector Outlook 6

3 Introduction 9

3.1 GlobalData Report Guidance 10

4 South Africa, Power Market, Snapshot 11

4.1 Macroeconomic Factors 11

4.2 Supply Security 12

4.3 Opportunities 13

4.4 Challenges 13

5 South Africa, Power Market, Market Analysis 14

5.1 South Africa, Power Market, Market Structure 14

5.2 South Africa, Power Market, Key Market Players 14

5.3 South Africa, Power Market, Financial Deals 15

5.3.1 Deal Value and Volume Analysis, 2008–July 2018 15

5.3.2 Deals by Type, 2017 17

5.4 South Africa, Power Market, Demand Structure 17

5.4.1 Power Consumption by Sector, 2017 18

6 South Africa, Power Market, Regulatory Scenario 20

6.1 South Africa, Power Market, Regulatory Framework 20

6.2 South Africa, Power Market, Renewable Energy Development 20

6.2.1 National Climate Change Response Policy 20

6.2.2 Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Program (REIPPPP) 21

6.2.3 Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) 23

6.2.4 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2018 24

6.2.5 Vision, Strategic Direction, and Framework for Climate Policy 25

7 South Africa Power Market, Capacity and Generation Overview 27

7.1 South Africa, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity, 2000–2030 27

7.1.1 Installed Capacity by Fuel Type, 2017 27

7.2 Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Generation, 2000–2030 28

7.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal Power Capacity and Annual Thermal Power Generation, 2000–2030 30

7.2.2 Cumulative Installed Hydropower Capacity and Annual Hydropower Generation, 2000–2030 33

7.2.3 Cumulative Installed Nuclear Power Capacity and Annual Nuclear Generation, 2000–2030 36

7.2.4 Cumulative Installed Non-hydro Renewable Power Capacity and Annual Non-hydro Renewable Power Generation, 2000–2030 38

8 South Africa, Power Market, Transmission and Distribution Overview 41

8.1 South Africa, Power Market, Transmission Network Overview 41

8.2 South Africa, Power Market, Distribution Network Overview 42

8.3 South Africa, Power Market, Grid Interconnection 42

8.4 South Africa, Power Import and Export Scenario 43

8.5 South Africa, Power Market, Electricity Trading 44

9 South Africa, Power Market, Competitive Landscape: Snapshot of Leading Power Generating Companies 45

9.1 Key Company in South Africa Power Market: Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd 45

9.1.1 Company Overview 45

9.1.2 Business Description 45

9.1.3 SWOT Overview 46

9.2 Key Company in South Africa Power Market: Enel SpA 48

9.2.1 Company Overview 48

9.2.2 Business Description 48

9.2.3 SWOT Overview 49

10 Appendix 52

10.1 Market Definitions 52

10.1.1 Power 52

10.1.2 Installed Capacity 52

10.1.3 Electricity Generation 52

10.1.4 Electricity Consumption 52

10.1.5 Thermal Power Plant 52

10.1.6 Hydropower Plant 52

10.1.7 Nuclear Power 52

10.1.8 Renewable Energy Resources 52

10.2 Abbreviations 53

10.3 Bibliography 53

10.4 Methodology 54

10.5 Coverage 54

10.5.1 Secondary Research 54

10.5.2 Primary Research 54

10.5.3 Modeling and Forecasting 55

10.6 Contact Us 55

10.7 Disclaimer 55

List of tables

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Power Market, South Africa, Gross Domestic Product (ZAR and $bn), Population (m), and Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000 ...

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Power Market, South Africa, Gross Domestic Product (ZAR and $bn), Population (m), and Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2023 12

Table 2: Power Market, South Africa, Market Share of Leading Power Generation Companies (%), 2017 15

Table 3: Power Market, South Africa, Deal Value ($bn) and Number of Deals, 2008–July 2018 16

Table 4: Power Market, South Africa, Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2030 18

Table 5: Power Market, South Africa, Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2017 19

Table 6: Power Market, South Africa, Renewable Energy Awarded Capacity under REIPPPP 21

Table 7: Power Market, South Africa, Price Trend of Solar PV ($/kWh), REIPPPP 21

Table 8: Power Market, South Africa, Price Trend of Onshore Wind ($/kWh), REIPPPP 22

Table 9: Power Market, South Africa, Price Trend of CSP ($/kWh), REIPPPP 22

Table 10: Power Market, South Africa, Allocation Composition of Round Five of REIPPPP (MW), 2018 22

Table 11: Power Market, South Africa, Capacity Addition Targets for Energy Sources, Final Capacity, and Final Share of Various Energy Sources in Capacity Mix (MW and %), 2030 24

Table 12: Power Market, South Africa, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2017 27

Table 13: Power Market, South Africa, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 29

Table 14: Power Market, South Africa, Leading Thermal Power Plants (MW), 2018 30

Table 15: Power Market, South Africa, Cumulative Installed Thermal Power Capacity (GW) and Annual Thermal Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 32

Table 16: Power Market, South Africa, Leading Hydropower Plants (MW), 2018 33

Table 17: Power Market, South Africa, Cumulative Installed Hydropower Capacity (GW) and Annual Hydropower Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 35

Table 18: Power Market, South Africa, Active Nuclear Power Reactors, 2017 36

Table 19: Power Market, South Africa, Cumulative Installed Nuclear Power Capacity (GW) and Annual Nuclear Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 37

Table 20: Power Market, South Africa, Leading Non-hydro Renewable Power Plants (MW), 2018 38

Table 21: Power Market, South Africa, Cumulative Installed Non-hydro Renewable Power Capacity (GW) and Annual Non-hydro Renewable Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 40

Table 22: Power Market, South Africa, Transmission Line Length (Ckm), 2007–2025 41

Table 23: Power Market, South Africa, Distribution Line Length (Ckm), 2007–2025 42

Table 24: Power Market, South Africa, Annual Power Imports and Exports (TWh), 2000–2017 44

Table 25: Power Market, South Africa, Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd, SWOT Profile, 2018 46

Table 26: Power Market, South Africa, Enel SpA, SWOT Profile, 2018 49

Table 27: Abbreviations 53

List of figures

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: Power Market, South Africa, Gross Domestic Product ($bn) and Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2017 6

Figure 2 ...

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: Power Market, South Africa, Gross Domestic Product ($bn) and Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2017 6

Figure 2: Power Market, South Africa, Annual Power Consumption and Generation (TWh), 2000–2017 7

Figure 3: Power Market, South Africa, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2017 8

Figure 4: Power Market, South Africa, Gross Domestic Product ($bn), Population (m), and Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2023 11

Figure 5: Power Market, South Africa, Market Share of Leading Power Generation Companies (%), 2017 15

Figure 6: Power Market, South Africa, Deal Value ($bn) and Number of Deals, 2008–July 2018 16

Figure 7: Power Market, South Africa, Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2030 17

Figure 8: Power Market, South Africa, Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2017 19

Figure 9: Power Market, South Africa, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2017 27

Figure 10: Power Market, South Africa, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 28

Figure 11: Power Market, South Africa, Cumulative Installed Thermal Power Capacity (GW) and Annual Thermal Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 31

Figure 12: Power Market, South Africa, Cumulative Installed Hydropower Capacity (GW) and Annual Hydropower Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 34

Figure 13: Power Market, South Africa, Cumulative Installed Nuclear Power Capacity (MW) and Annual Nuclear Power Generation (GWh), 2000–2030 36

Figure 14: Power Market, South Africa, Cumulative Installed Non-hydro Renewable Power Capacity (GW) and Annual Non-hydro Renewable Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 39

Figure 15: Power Market, South Africa, Annual Power Imports and Exports (TWh), 2000–2017 43

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