Global Risk Report Quarterly Update – Q3 2023

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Global Risk Report Overview

The GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) in Q3 2023 reveals a risk score of 44.3 out of 100 in Q3 2023. The decline in the risk index is attributed to positive factors such as easing inflationary pressures and a gradually improving labor market, contributing to enhanced consumer confidence.

However, the economic risk score increased to 45.4 in Q3 2023 from 43.1 in the same quarter of 2022, reflecting numerous challenges confronting the global economy. Persisting challenges impacting the risk score are geopolitical tensions, reduced external demand, elevated borrowing costs, and economic turmoil in China.

The “Global Risk Report Q3 2023” is based on GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI), which is a unique country risk-rating model. It determines the existing and future levels of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies based on historical developments in an economy and their future expectations.

Global Risk Score (Q3 2023) 44.3 out of 100
Key Regions ·        Asia-Pacific

·        Europe

·        Americas

·        Middle East and Africa

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Global Risk Report - Regional Analysis

The key regions contemplated in the Global Risk Report Q3 2023 are Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Americas, and the Middle East and Africa.

Asia-Pacific: Asia-Pacific has the second-lowest risk score in the world at 41.8 in Q3 2023. The region is home to many emerging and developing economies, including Vietnam, the Philippines, and India. These countries have witnessed tremendous growth lately owing to factors such as increased domestic activity, rising investments, and a rebound in tourism.

Americas: The Americas retained its second-highest global risk ranking with a risk score of 45.8 in Q3 2023, a marginal decrease from Q3 2022. The decline is attributed to factors such as alleviated inflationary pressures, a halt or reduction in the policy rate, a decrease in the unemployment rate, and an increase in consumer spending.

Europe: Europe remains the world’s least risky region, with a reduced risk score of 32.7 in Q3 2023, compared to 33.4 in Q3 2022. After successfully overcoming challenges posed by the pandemic and energy price shocks, Europe faces the complex task of reinstating price stability while nurturing strong and environmentally sustainable long-term growth. The growth forecast is shaped by the interplay of tightened macroeconomic policies and a resurgence in real incomes, propelled by decreasing inflation and rising wages.

Middle East and Africa: The MEA region recorded a risk score of 53.5 in Q3 2023. The region’s risk profile is heightened due to economic instability because of declining oil production and geopolitical instability arising from ongoing conflicts. Compounding the challenges is a deteriorating humanitarian crisis in the area.

Regional Risk Level – Q3 2023

Regional Risk Level - Q3 2023

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Key Highlights

• Global risk: The GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) for Q3 2023 exhibits a decrease in risk score, declining from 44.9 in Q3 2022 to 44.3 out of 100. This decline is attributed to positive factors like easing inflationary pressures and a gradually improving labor market, contributing to enhanced consumer confidence. However, challenges persist, including geopolitical tensions, reduced external demand, elevated borrowing cost, and economic turmoil in China.

• Asia-Pacific: Asia-Pacific now has the second-lowest risk score in the world, down from 42 in Q3 2022 to 41.8 in Q3 2023. The Asia-Pacific region’s emerging and developing economies have grown rapidly lately, helped by factors like increased domestic activity, rising investments, and a rebound in tourism. Several emerging Asian economies, including Vietnam, the Philippines, and India, are still experiencing rapid growth driven by positive trends in investment and consumption, even as China’s economic recovery is slowing down. Though circumstances differ amongst countries, this points to a promising future for the Asia-Pacific region.

• Americas: The risk score for the Americas region decreased from 47.7 in Q3 2022 to 45.8 in Q3 2023. The decline was attributed to factors such as alleviated inflationary pressures, a halt or reduction in the policy rate, a decrease in the unemployment rate, and an increase in consumer spending. Despite this reduction, the Americas retained its second-highest global risk ranking, with the Middle East and Africa being the only region ranked higher. This positioning was primarily influenced by vulnerabilities identified in Latin American countries.

• Europe: Europe remains the world’s least risky region, with a reduced risk score of 32.7 in Q3 2023, compared to 33.4 in Q3 2022. After successfully overcoming challenges posed by pandemic and energy price shocks, Europe faces the complex task of reinstating price stability while nurturing strong and environmentally sustainable long-term growth. The growth forecast is shaped by the interplay of tightened macroeconomic policies and a resurgence in real incomes, propelled by decreasing inflation and rising wages.

• Middle East and Africa: Recording a risk score of 53.5 in Q3 2023, the Middle East and Africa persist as the region with the highest risk level. Economic growth in major oil-producing nations is hampered by decline in oil production. The region’s risk profile is further heightened by geopolitical instability arising from ongoing conflicts. Compounding the challenges is a deteriorating humanitarian crisis in the area.

Reasons to Buy

Global Risk Report is a valuable tool that provides critical information and insights to support decision-making, protect your business or investments, and enhance your overall risk management capabilities.

Risk identification: A risk report provides an in-depth analysis of potential risks and threats that may impact your business or investments. It helps identify and prioritize risks, enabling you to take proactive measures to mitigate them.

Decision-making support: A risk report provides valuable insights and data-driven information that can assist you in making informed decisions. It helps you assess the potential impact of risks on your objectives and aids in developing effective strategies to manage and minimize those risks.

Business continuity planning: Understanding potential risks and their impact is crucial for effective business continuity planning. A risk report provides an overview of risks that could disrupt your operations, allowing you to develop contingency plans and ensure uninterrupted business operations.

Table of Contents

GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) – Country Ranking

GCRI Q3 2023 – Key Takeaways

Global Overview – Summary

Global Overview – Key Highlights

Flashback – January 2023 to December 2023

Key Events – January 2024 to December 2024

GCRI Q3 2023 Heat Map

GCRI – Global Landscape 2023

Major Risks and Recovery

Israel-Palestine Conflict

Regional Analysis

Regional Analysis – Asia-Pacific

Regional Analysis – Europe

Regional Analysis – Americas

Regional Analysis – Middle East and Africa

Methodology & Appendix

Frequently asked questions

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