HIV – Brazil Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

Pages: 147 Published: January 01, 2013 Report Code: GDHC1036CFR

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GlobalData has released its new Country report, “HIV – Brazil Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022”. Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), the causative agent of AIDS, has claimed millions of lives since its emergence. However, the advent of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has transformed the face of HIV/AIDS from a deadly disease to a manageable chronic condition for most infected individuals. Antiretroviral treatment not only reduces the viral load and reconstitutes immune function, but also decreases infection incidence rates by limiting viral transmission. The treatment algorithm in HIV has characteristically involved multiple drug regimens designed to tackle the virus on different levels. In the recent past, simplified dosing regimens through the emergence of single tablet regimens (STRs) or fixed dose combination (FDC) therapies have become increasingly popular amongst physicians and patients alike by increasing clinical efficacy thresholds and enabling patient compliance.

Unlike the seven major markets, the market in Brazil mostly represents revenues generated from the sale of generics. It is interesting to note that the absence of STRs and FDCs, such as Gilead’s Truvada or ViiV’s Epzicom, is because of the high cost of these therapies. GlobalData estimates that ViiV will launch its pipeline candidate, 572-Trii, as a novel STR in an attempt to break into this market. The NRTI class is represented mainly by generic Combivir, followed by generic lamivudine and tenofovir.

Scope

Overview of HIV including epidemiology, etiology, symptoms, diagnosis, pathology and treatment guidelines as well as an overview on the competitive landscape.

Detailed information on the key drugs in Brazil including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis.

Sales forecast for the top drugs in Brazil from 2012-2022.

Analysis of the impact of key events as well the drivers and restraints affecting Brazil HIV market.

Reasons to Buy

Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return

Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for HIV

Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential

Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of drug performance

Obtain sales forecast for drugs from 2012-2022 in Brazil

Table of Contents

1Table of Contents1

1.1List of Tables2

1.2List of Figures3

2Executive Summary4

2.1Sales for HIV in Brazil4

2.2Key Opinion Leaders Interested in New and Efficacious Therapies that Improve the Treatment Algorithm for HIV Treatment5

3Introduction6

3.1Catalyst6

3.2Related Reports7

3.3Upcoming Related Reports8

4Disease Overview8

4.1Etiology and Pathophysiology8

4.1.1Etiology8

4.1.2Pathophysiology10

4.1.3Prognosis11

4.1.4Quality of Life11

4.2Symptoms11

4.2.1Primary or Acute Infection11

4.2.2Chronic Infection11

4.2.3Advanced Infection/AIDS12

5Disease Management13

5.1Treatment Overview13

5.2Brazil15

5.2.1Diagnosis15

5.2.2Clinical Practice15

6Competitive Assessment17

6.1Overview17

6.2Strategic Competitor Assessment17

6.3Product Profiles – Major Brands19

6.3.1Atripla (efavirenz/emtricitabine/tenofovir)19

6.3.2Truvada (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine)23

6.3.3Epzicom (abacavir/lamivudine)26

6.3.4Kaletra (lopinavir/ritonavir)30

6.3.5Reyataz (atazanavir)33

6.3.6Prezista (darunavir)38

6.3.7Norvir (ritonavir)41

6.3.8Isentress (raltegravir)44

6.3.9Entry inhibitors47

7Opportunity and Unmet Need48

7.1Overview48

7.1.1Simplified regimens and dosing frequency48

7.1.2Side effects and toxicities48

7.1.3Drug resistance49

7.1.4Prophylaxis50

7.1.5Lack of functional cure50

7.1.6Patient awareness50

7.1.7Treatment availability51

7.1.8Treatment affordability51

7.2Unmet Needs Gap Analysis51

7.3Opportunities53

7.3.1Development of treatments to counter drug resistance53

7.3.2Collaborations to develop newer STRs53

7.3.3Development of new injectable formulations53

7.3.4Development of new prophylactics53

7.3.5Development of drugs that use a novel mechanism of action54

8Pipeline Assessment54

8.1Overview54

8.2Promising Drugs in Clinical Development55

8.2.1Cobicistat58

8.2.2Dolutegravir65

8.2.3572-Trii72

8.3Promising Drugs in Earlier Development77

9Market Outlook78

9.1Brazil78

9.1.1Forecast78

9.1.2Key Events83

9.1.3Drivers and Barriers84

10Appendix85

10.1Bibliography85

10.2Abbreviations96

10.3Methodology98

10.4Forecasting Methodology98

10.4.1HIV Prevalence99

10.4.2Percent Drug-Treated Patients99

10.4.3Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class99

10.4.4General Pricing Assumptions100

10.4.5Individual Drug Assumptions101

10.4.6Generic Erosion103

10.4.7Pricing of Pipeline agents104

10.5Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study105

10.5.1Survey of Prescribing Physicians105

10.6About the Authors107

10.6.1Authors107

10.6.2Global Head of Healthcare108

10.7About GlobalData109

10.8Contact Us109

10.9Disclaimer109

List of Tables

Table 1: Symptoms HIV12

Table 2: Treatment Guidelines for HIV14

Table 3: Most Prescribed Drugs for HIV by Class in the Brazilian Market, 201215

Table 4: Leading Treatments for HIV, 201218

Table 5: Product Profile – Atripla20

Table 6: Atripla SWOT Analysis, 201222

Table 7: Product Profile – Truvada24

Table 8: Truvada SWOT Analysis, 201225

Table 9: Product Profile – Epzicom27

Table 10: Epzicom SWOT Analysis, 201229

Table 11: Product Profile – Kaletra31

Table 12: Kaletra SWOT Analysis, 201233

Table 13: Product Profile – Reyataz34

Table 14: Reyataz SWOT Analysis, 201237

Table 15: Product Profile – Prezista38

Table 16: Prezista SWOT Analysis, 201241

Table 17: Product Profile – Norvir42

Table 18: Norvir SWOT Analysis, 201243

Table 19: Product Profile – Isentress44

Table 20: Percent of Patients with HIV RNA Levels <50 Copies/mL from SMARTMRK Study45

Table 21: Isentress SWOT Analysis, 201246

Table 22: Summary of Minor Therapeutic Classes, 201247

Table 23: Overall Unmet Needs – Current Level of Attainment48

Table 24: Clinical Unmet Needs – Gap Analysis, 201252

Table 25: HIV – Promising Drugs in Clinical Development, 201255

Table 26: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for HIV, 201257

Table 27: Product Profile – Cobicistat60

Table 28: Cobicistat SWOT Analysis, 201264

Table 29: Product Profile – Dolutegravir67

Table 30: Dolutegravir SWOT Analysis, 201271

Table 31: Product Profile – 572-Trii73

Table 32: 572-Trii SWOT Analysis, 201277

Table 33: Promising Early-Stage Drugs in HIV, 201278

Table 34: Sales Forecasts ($m) for HIV in Brazil, 2022–202280

Table 35: Key Events Impacting Sales for HIV in Brazil, 2012–202283

Table 36: Brazil HIV Market Therapeutics – Drivers and Barriers, 2012–202284

Table 37: Physicians Surveyed, By Country106

List of Figures

Figure 1: Sales for HIV Therapeutics in Brazil by Drug Class, 2012–20224

Figure 2: HIV Lifecycle9

Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in HIV, 2012–202256

Figure 4: Sales for HIV Therapeutics in Brazil by Drug Class, 2012–202282

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