Net Present Value Model: Ilaris
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Overview
Evaluating the value of drugs is a complicated practice and requires a deep knowledge of the drug itself, the market currently and in the future, knowledge of cash inflows and outflows and the potential success rates for each stage of drug development. GlobalData has done all of this work for you, leveraging its gold standard Drugs Intelligence database to create high-value NPV models for purchase on a drug-by-drug basis.
Drug Operating Profit Model
Ilaris Drug Details
Canakinumab (Ilaris / Lasprona / Vyncro) is a fully human monoclonal antibody. It is formulated as powder for solution and solution for subcutaneous route of administration. Ilaris is indicated for the treatment of Cryopyrin-Associated Periodic Syndromes (CAPS), in adults and children 4 years of age and older including Familial Cold Autoinflammatory Syndrome (FCAS), tumour necrosis factor (TNF) receptor associated periodic syndrome (TRAPS), hyperimmunoglobulin D syndrome (HIDS)/mevalonate kinase deficiency (MKD), Familial Mediterranean Fever (FMF), Muckle-Wells Syndrome (MWS), pancreatic cancer and symptomatic anemia. Ilaris is also approved for systemic onset juvenile idiopathic arthritis in patients aged 2 years and older. Ilaris is also indicated for the symptomatic treatment of adult patients with frequent gouty arthritis attacks, and for the treatment of Active Still’s disease, including Adult-Onset Still’s Disease (AOSD). Canakinumab is indicated for emergency use in the treatment of COVID-19.Canakinumab (Ilaris) is under development for the treatment of myelodysplastic syndromes, mild cognitive impairment due to Alzheimer’s disease, adult onset still’s disease (AOSD), renal cell carcinoma, metastatic non-squamous (adjuvant and first line therapy), metastatic triple negative breast cancer, pulmonary sarcoidosis, metastatic melanoma, alcoholic hepatitis and pain associated with sickle cell anemia patients. It was under development for the treatment of arterial structure, function in intermittent claudication patients, gouty arthritis (in the US), abdominal aortic aneurysms, choroidal neovascularization, rheumatoid arthritis, type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), feratoconjunctivitis sicca (dry eye), secondary prevention of cardiovascular events, Kawasaki disease, urticaria vasculitis, polymyalgia rheumatica, non-small cell lung cancer (second line and third line therapy) and knee osteoarthritis. It is also administered through intraarticular route. It was also under development for the treatment of COVID-19-induced pneumonia, cytokine release syndrome and squamous non-small cell lung cancer (first line therapy), Behcet disease.
Report Coverage
GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, potential applicable patients, drug margins, company expenses, and pricing estimates. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
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Reasons to Buy
- Better understand the quantitative value of a specific drug
- Create or support internal NPV models to improve accuracy
- Understand the profit a drug is expected to make, taking into account revenue and cost forecasts leveraging public and proprietary data sets.
Frequently asked questions
- All drug sales and forecasts within NPV Model are calculated in our proprietary company based models . In these models, Analyst Consensus forecasts are built by using company-specific broker reports to create the sales forecasts for each Drug and Segment.
- Sales and forecasts are not indication-specific where drugs are approved , or in development, for multiple indications. Please refer to GlobalData’s Disease Analysis reports for indication-specific sales forecasts.
- Risk-adjusted NPVs use GlobalData’s LoA and PTSR for the indication in the highest development stage. Please refer to the Likelihood of Approval methodology for more details on this content.
GlobalData’s NPV Model is a premium model providing a fully-interactive forecasting and valuation tool, driven by Analyst Consensus estimates, enabling users to analyze and customize valuations for pharmaceutical assets including drugs or segments. The tool provides 17-year drug forecasts from companies with sales forecast data in the pharmaceutical industry, including established global firms and emerging biotechs, which allows access to critical information to facilitate strategic decision making around pharmaceutical assets
The NPV Model includes a forecasted Revenue Model, followed by a proprietary Patent Expiry Model, Operating Profit Model, Net Profit (apply Tax rate) and Discounted Cash Flow (apply Discount rates), to derive Net Present Value (NPV) for a chosen pharmaceutical asset
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