Kenya Power Market Size and Trends by Installed Capacity, Generation, Transmission, Distribution, and Technology, Regulations, Key Players and Forecast, 2021-2030

This report elaborates Kenya’s power market structure and provides historical and forecast numbers for generation, capacity, and consumption up to 2030. Detailed analysis of the Kenya power market’s regulatory structure import and export trends, competitive landscape, and power projects at various stages of the supply chain is provided. The report also gives a snapshot of the power sector in Kenya on broad parameters of macroeconomics, supply security, generation infrastructure, transmission infrastructure, degree of competition, regulatory scenario, and future potential. Financial performance of the leading power companies is also analysed in the report.

Kenya power market overview

For more insights, download a free report sample

Gas-based power capacity to witness sharp increase in Kenya till 2030

Installed thermal power capacity increased from 416 MW in 2000 to 794 MW in 2020, at a CAGR of more than 3%. Within thermal sources, oil was the dominant technology, contributing more than 90% of thermal capacity in 2020. By 2030, the cumulative thermal power capacity is expected to increase further to 1,258 MW. During the 2021 to 2030 period, coal-based power capacity is expected to remain constant whereas oil-based power capacity is expected to decline. This decline will mostly be because of the government’s intention to reduce the use of oil for power generation and focus more on oil exports. The decline in oil-based power capacity will be compensated by the rapid increase in gas-based power capacity. Within thermal power sources, the share of gas-based power capacity is expected to rise significantly.

How is Kenya’s power market structured?

The Ministry of Energy and Petroleum (MoEP) is responsible for preparing energy policies and devising strategic roadmaps for the development of power sector in the country. Major functions of the MoEP are national energy policy development and management, rural electrification, hydropower development, geothermal exploration and development, and promotion of renewable energy. The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) was established as the successor to the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) under the Energy Act, 2019. EPRA regulates the generation, transmission, distribution, and supply of electricity along with power imports and exports in Kenya. It also regulates the production, conversion, distribution, supply, marketing and use of renewable energy in the country.

Who are the key players in Kenya’s power market?

The power generation segment in Kenya is dominated by Kenya Electricity Generating Co Ltd, Lake Turkana Wind Power Ltd, Aggreko International Power Projects, and Ormat Technologies Inc. Kenya Electricity Transmission Company (KETRACO) is the sole electricity transmission network operator in Kenya. KETRACO was formed in 2008 and was made responsible for the bulk power transmission in Kenya. Prior to 2008, Kenya Power and Lighting Company was responsible for electricity transmission in the country. KETRACO is engaged in planning, designing, and constructing new electricity transmission infrastructure in Kenya. The electricity distribution network in Kenya is owned and operated by state-owned utility Kenya Power. The utility is also responsible for the electricity supply to end users in Kenya. Kenya Power purchases electricity in bulk from KenGen and other IPPs through bilateral agreements or through PPAs approved by EPRA.

Kenya power market, by key players

To know more about key players, download a free report sample

Where are the opportunities in Kenya’s power market?

The Kenyan power sector is expected to offer a lot of investment opportunities during the 2021 to 2030 period. Demand for electricity is expected to increase, as is the need to set up new power plants. The discovery of oil and coal deposits have resulted in increased exploration activities in expectation of finding new reserves, which could significantly alter the economic trajectory. A huge boom in construction will lead to an even greater demand for power.

What are the challenges faced by Kenya’s power market?

In 2020, the country generated more than 55% of electricity from renewable power sources. If hydropower generation is included, this percentage increases to more than 90%. Renewable power sources are intermittent in nature and high dependence on them without proper storage facilities can endanger the country’s supply security. The country also does not have pumped hydro storage to supply power during peak demand. Upgrading transmission infrastructure and storage systems will be necessary before much more variable renewable power sources can be integrated into the national grid.

How has COVID-19 affected Kenya’s power market?

Kenya was significantly affected due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. To curb the spread of COVID-19, the Kenyan Government imposed strict national curfews in the country. Due to national curfews, social distancing measures, and travel restrictions, the Kenyan economy was significantly affected. Real GDP declined by 0.4% in 2020 as compared to 2019. This was the first time in the last 2 decades that the country’s real GDP observed a decline.

With respect to power sector, the electricity consumption in the country declined by 0.7% in 2020 as compared to 2019. Electricity demand from industrial and commercial sectors declined significantly due to national curfews and social distancing measures. This decline in electricity demand has significantly affected the power utilities in Kenya. For instance, Kenya Power, the electricity distributor, and supplier in the country, reported a steep decline of 80.1% in net profit from July 2020 to December 2020. Also, KenGen, the major power generation utility in Kenya, reported a fall of 37.8% in profits during the same period which is largely attributed to the declining revenues from electricity sales.

Market report scope

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the power market in Kenya and contains the following sections;

• The executive summary captures the key trends in the country’s power market.
• The “Kenya Power Market, Snapshot” section provides a snapshot of the key parameters that affect the country’s power sector, as well as key points about the country’s power market including opportunities, challenges, and the impact of COVID-19.
• The “Kenya Power Market, Market Analysis” section provides the market structure, generation market share, deals, and demand structure.
• The “Kenya Power Market, Regulatory Scenario” section details the regulations and policies in the country’s power sector.
• The “Kenya Power Market, Capacity and Generation” section provides information on cumulative installed capacity and annual generation trends, by individual generation source.
• The “Kenya Power Market, Transmission and Distribution Overview” section discusses the power T&D infrastructure, electricity import and export, and grid interconnections.
• The “Kenya Power Market, Major Generating Companies” section discusses the major electricity generating companies in the country.

Reasons to Buy

• Identify opportunities and plan strategies by having a strong understanding of the investment opportunities in the country’s power sector
• Identify key factors driving investment opportunities in the country’s power sector
• Facilitate decision-making based on strong historic and forecast data
• Develop strategies based on the latest regulatory events
• Position yourself to gain the maximum advantage of the industry’s growth potential
• Identify key partners and business development avenues
• Identify key strengths and weaknesses of important market participants
• Respond to your competitors’ business structure, strategy, and prospects